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This Fourth Turning's Market Crash Risks Are 'Exceptional' | Neil Howe

Today's guest has long predicted that widespread systemic change would occur during the 20-teens and 20-20s -- as America and much of the rest of the world experience a replacement of the old order and the birthpangs of a new one.

All of us who have lived through this period and especially the year 2025 that just ended probably find it hard to argue that massive change -- culturally, politically, geo-strategically and economically -- is indeed now afoot.

So how much more of this change still lies ahead?

How disruptive will it likely be?

And what kind of new system does it look like we'll have on the other side?

For perspective, we have the privilege of welcoming back to the program demographer Neil Howe, co-author of the seminal book "The Fourth Turning" and its sequel "The Fourth Turning Is Here".

As I've written a number of times in the past, I do not expect WW III to begin with some major attack, such as a Chinese invasion of Taiwan or Japan or a missile attack on the United States. Those acts would come later. Major wars begin with small events. In a generational Crisis era, when public levels of nationalism and xenophobia are very high, a small event can be a match that lights an explosive fire.

World War II did not begin with the bombing of Pearl Harbor, nor did it begin with the invasion of Poland.

As I've described in the past, World War II began in 1937 with the Marco Polo Bridge incident. The Marco Polo Bridge is about 15 km south of Beijing in China, and was so named because Marco Polo praised the bridge in the 13th century. In 1937, both Japan and China were deep into generational Crisis eras, and the Japanese and Chinese people really hated each other. On July 7, a small group of Japanese soldiers, stationed near the bridge, took a roll call and found one soldier missing. The Japanese accused Chinese soldiers, also stationed near the bridge in the city of Wanping, of abducting the Japanese soldier. A brief clash was won by the Japanese. There were negotiations, and the situation was settled quickly. (The "abducted" soldier had merely gotten lost in the woods.)

So the two sides negotiated a settlement, but both sides then brought in reinforcements. Within a month there was full-scale war, leading to the Japanese "Rape of Nanking" shortly thereafter.

Update(0953ET): President Trump on Tuesday morning has called on Iranians to keep protesting in the streets, where clashes with security services have spiraled and turned violent - but in some locations have waned. He's told Iranians to "take over your institutions" - which is essentially a call for coup or armed insurrection.

Trump further said he has canceled all meetings with Iranian officials, after yesterday's reports that the two sides were looking to jump-start diplomacy of official contacts if Tehran leaders cooperate, and don't kill any protesters. But now Trump is doing his typical thing of quickly ratcheting pressure to the max. He's reiterated that HELP IS ON THE WAY - suggesting military intervention could be imminent, in the following Truth Social statement.

Navigator wrote: Sun Jan 11, 2026 1:43 pm

FullMoon wrote: Sat Jan 10, 2026 8:25 pm

DaKardii wrote: Sat Jan 10, 2026 5:21 pm Link to the monologue below. Keep in mind that it is over 40 minutes long.

https://tuckercarlson.com/tucker-mono-jan-7

During the monologue, Carlson implies that China will be our main adversary in this war. He also says Russia is the key to determining who will win. Which is why Trump abandoning NATO/Ukraine and making nice with Russia should take top priority. If Trump fails to break Russia away from China, we will lose. Only if he succeeds will we have a chance.

John's analysis as to the Russian side was correct. It depends on how much they and Europe can make amends. At current levels that will take a long time and certainly be in China's favor. The European/Russian rivalry would be best wound down. There is no existential conflict between Russia and Europe. Europe got themselves into a hole by doing similar but much worse than we did. We have lots of options but what have they. We cut their pipeline and they don't even have cheap energy now.

I think that Tucker Carlson is completely in the tank for Russia. The idea of making Russia into a US ally against China is ludicrous. Russia is an aggressor and a full on partner with China.

I have always disagreed with John's take on Russia, and after Putin's invasion of Ukraine I believe that John changed his mind.

European/Russian rivalry is not going to wind down. It is only going to get worse. After the Ukraine, Russia wants the Baltics. Then they want their influence in Eastern Europe back. Russian ambitions are all aimed westward. Russia may actually cede territory in the far east to China in return for assistance in getting more European lands. I believe we will see this when WW3 starts.

Is China Planning a Russian Land Grab? What to Know

DEC 10, 2025 AT 04:00 AM EST

Recent moves by China reveal it has not forgotten the territory lost to the Russian Far East during its "Century of Humiliation." This has raised speculation that the world’s longest border may be ripe for Chinese encroachment, even as "no limits partners" Beijing and Moscow appear increasingly aligned on the world stage.

Chinese Map Alterations and Border Disputes

The Chinese Ministry of the Environment in 2023 moved to dictate that new official maps must depict cities in this area, such as the Siberian city of Vladivostok, with their official names. Another change was to portray an island at the confluence of the Ussuri and Amur rivers, subject to a long-running dispute and a border agreement in 2008, as entirely Chinese. An uptick in Chinese purchases of farmland and decades-long leases across the border has also raised eyebrows.

Strategic Partnership and Power Imbalance

Meanwhile, Chinese nationalists openly call for the return of territory forcibly transferred to Tsarist Russia by a weakened Qing dynasty during the 19th century. These calls are not echoed by Beijing, which has downplayed the map changes while regularly touting the importance of ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who stood in the place of honor at Xi’s side during the June V-Day military parade in Tiananmen Square.

Cautious Contact on the China-Russia Border

Amid great power competition, life in the China-Russia borderlands reveals the paradoxes underpinning the Beijing-Moscow friendship.

In eastern Russia there is no question over where borders lie: Several outstanding Sino-Russian territorial disputes were finally settled in 2008, and Putin is in no position to revisit this topic today. But this border also remains troublesome, despite signs in early 2023 of its reopening and a wider relaxation of China’s pandemic restrictions. The February 1 meeting between Suifenhe and Ussuriisk officials proposed increasing cross-border commercial traffic, but left unanswered questions over when Russians’ visa-free cross-border access to China would resume. At the time of writing in late February, no conclusive answer has yet been provided on this subject.

This slowness to reopen despite supposedly limitless China-Russia friendship can be read as a sign of a discomfort on each side with too much unregulated contact among people. Once the border does reopen fully, moreover, the current international situation could lead to further complications.

Actually invading Greenland would activate NATO against the US, which would be a disaster of monumental proportions. NATO is still extremely important, especially in the face of Russian aggression. I think we should tone down the anti-NATO rhetoric a notch or two. Trump has been successful in getting the Europeans to increase defense spending somewhat, and the fear of Russia, especially for Poland and northern Europe is motivating them as well.

I have always disagreed with John's take on Russia, and after Putin's invasion of Ukraine I believe that John changed his mind.

FullMoon wrote: Sat Jan 10, 2026 8:25 pm

DaKardii wrote: Sat Jan 10, 2026 5:21 pm Link to the monologue below. Keep in mind that it is over 40 minutes long.

https://tuckercarlson.com/tucker-mono-jan-7

During the monologue, Carlson implies that China will be our main adversary in this war. He also says Russia is the key to determining who will win. Which is why Trump abandoning NATO/Ukraine and making nice with Russia should take top priority. If Trump fails to break Russia away from China, we will lose. Only if he succeeds will we have a chance.

John's analysis as to the Russian side was correct. It depends on how much they and Europe can make amends. At current levels that will take a long time and certainly be in China's favor. The European/Russian rivalry would be best wound down. There is no existential conflict between Russia and Europe. Europe got themselves into a hole by doing similar but much worse than we did. We have lots of options but what have they. We cut their pipeline and they don't even have cheap energy now.

tim wrote: Tue Jan 06, 2026 11:06 am

‘Greenland belongs to its people’: European leaders unite over Trump’s threats to annex territory

European leaders urge Trump to respect Greenland’s borders

Stephen Miller Asserts U.S. Has Right to Take Greenland