Generational Dynamics World View News

[NoMansLand]

I should start posting again. I think my grieving period should end at this point and I should get back to posting concerning what is going on.
I don't think I should go back and try to "catch up", as that would be a lot of work, but I could start posting again based on current daily developments.

You have my sympathies as well Navigator. I would be interested to hear your take on the progress of things as well.

[Navigator]

Trump's firing of Wiles and promotion of Miller to Chief of Staff is a definitive signal about how the next two years (or rest of the Trump presidency) will go. To say Miller is combative is putting it extremely mildly. I so absolutely no prospect of cross-aisle compromise about anything.

On the other side, the Dems do not seem to understand that endless congressional inquiries are not going to do anything. People will just not show up. Trump's Justice Dept won't prosecute them for doing so, and then Trump will pardon them (as he learned to do from Biden).

All of the political turmoil will only play into the hands of the Chinese.

[tim]

I should start posting again. I think my grieving period should end at this point and I should get back to posting concerning what is going on.
I don't think I should go back and try to "catch up", as that would be a lot of work, but I could start posting again based on current daily developments.

I've missed your posts Navigator, sorry for your loss. Very little has happened on this forum lately, a shadow of what it once was. If you post stuff, I'll read it. Regards, Jack

With the passing of John there hasn’t been anyone to continue carrying the torch.

I feel everything that needed to be said has been said and now were are along for the ride to watch Johns predictions come true.

Anyone can post predictions but I haven’t seen anyone post with the generational dynamics perspective.

That is what made John’s analysis interesting he just wasn’t posting personal beliefs that could be found anywhere.

I’m watching to see if our fourth turning becomes a civil war or if its still war with China.

[Navigator]

I would say that we are looking at a domestic insurrection while we engage in a full-on conflict with China.

BTW, the money trail for Antifa, Democratic Socialists of America, BLM, Code Pink, and a host of other disrupters, all lead back to China and the CCP.

[Navigator]

I have been watching with intense interest the latest reports out of Ukraine.

I tend to watch the following on You-tube:
The Military Show
United24

They are both obviously pro-Ukrainian, but they are showing a good bit of detail of what is going on.

Western Militaries are almost wholly unprepared for the type of warfare now going on in Ukraine. Technology, specifically drones, have advanced so far that the tactics and most logistical operations used by world armies outside of the Russo-Ukraine conflict are now woefully obsolete.

Right now the only armies with practical experience with how war is now fought are Ukraine and Russia.

The casualty rates are starting to approach those of the most bloody wars ever fought.

In WW1, mobilization into the French Army meant that there was about a 60% chance of becoming a casualty (15% chance of death). In the infantry, you could basically plan on dying.

In the US Civil War, joining the Union Army meant about a 20% chance of being a casualty. If you were in a combat unit and showed up at a large battle (a la Gettysburg), the chance of becoming a casualty was between 33 and 40%.

In the Ukraine War, I estimate that the Ukrainians have mobilized about 1.8 Million so far. Of those, 600 K have become casualties (of which 150 K are deaths). Hard to tell how many Russians have been mobilized, but they have suffered 450 K deaths (from a hack of the Russians own databases). So Ukraine war participation means a minimum of 33% chance of becoming a casualty.

On top of this, there is no good way to evacuate wounded from the front lines in Ukraine. There are no helicopter "dust-offs". It is taking roughly a couple of weeks to get a wounded soldier back to the Army Hospital. It takes longer for a soldier to get from the rear areas to the front lines. It is, for all intents and purposes, a high tech version of the Western Front in WW1.