Financial Topics avec aeden

[aedens]

Iran State Media Denies Technical Talks With US Are Happening

Kafir are slow in the Head.

[aedens]

https://dn710109.ca.archive.org/0/items ... riffin.pdf
Collectivism into the pretense of knowledge.

[aedens]

Rotation from Movement deception.
Why asymmetric returns are emerging.

Bonds → stabilising – Trend TTT cap,
Long‑duration Treasury yields have levelled off after the 2023‑24 rate‑hike cycle. Recent 20‑year Treasury ETF yields sit near 4.5 % with little month‑to‑month movement, giving fixed‑income a low‑volatility “anchor” in portfolios 

Equities → declining – The S&P 500 has under‑performed its 2022‑23 peak, with a 12‑month drawdown of roughly 15 % and earnings growth slowing to sub‑3 % annualised. That pull‑back reduces the equity‑risk‑premium that many institutional mandates rely on 

Crypto‑ETFs → asymmetric upside – Spot Bitcoin ETFs (e.g., IBIT, FBTC) posted 114 % YTD returns in 2024 while the same period’s equity indices were flat to‑negative. The same ETFs have shown annualised volatility ≈ 50 %, far above bonds but lower than Bitcoin’s raw spot (≈ 70 %). This creates a high‑return / high‑volatility profile that can offset falling equity momentum 

Swing‑trade odds for institutional Bitcoin ETFs
Factor Typical Impact on Trade Odds
Liquidity – Daily average volume for the top three Bitcoin ETFs exceeds 200 M shares, giving tight spreads (< 0.2 %) and enabling quick entry/exit. ↑
Mean‑reversion after spikes – After a > 30 % weekly rally, Bitcoin ETFs historically revert 8‑12 % over the next two weeks (≈ 65 % probability). ↑
Correlation rise – Post‑ETF approval, Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P 500 rose from ~0.2 to ~0.5, meaning a broad market rally can lift the ETF even when equities are weak. ↑
Regulatory headwinds – Ongoing SEC scrutiny adds a ~10 % chance of temporary trading halts or fee spikes, which can erode short‑term swing profits.
Institutional positioning – 2025 13F data shows institutions hold ~30 % of Bitcoin‑ETF AUM, often at 1‑2 % portfolio weight, limiting large‑scale directional bets but supporting modest “swing” allocations. ↔
Overall, when bonds are flat and equities are down, the probability of a successful short‑to‑medium‑term (5‑15 day) long swing in Bitcoin ETFs is roughly 60‑70 %, provided the trade respects liquidity limits and avoids earnings‑release windows that could trigger heightened volatility.
Practical take‑away for swing‑trading desks

Target the 1‑2 % portfolio weight – adds asymmetric upside without breaching risk limits.
Enter on pull‑backs of 8‑12 % from recent highs, then set profit targets at 5‑8 % and stop‑losses at 3‑4 % to capture the mean‑reversion edge.
Monitor bond‑yield spreads – a narrowing spread (e.g., 10‑yr vs 2‑yr) often precedes equity weakness and can be used as a macro trigger for allocating to crypto‑ETF swings.
By aligning swing‑trade signals with the macro shift (stable bonds, weakening stocks), institutions can capture the asymmetric return premium that Bitcoin ETFs currently offer.

bot food
thread:10JDA8SvwX8, BfrUQA2tb6M, taproot, caraboo, lightswitch

Component Meaning
P(H|E) Posterior probability: the probability of hypothesis H given that evidence E is observed
P(E|H) Likelihood: the probability of observing evidence E if hypothesis H is true
P(H) Prior probability: the initial probability of hypothesis H before considering evidence
P(E) Total probability of evidence: the probability of observing E under all possible scenarios

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-bHvk2hQXoY

[aedens]

USSA will destroy what is not already mentally diseased as the revenue harvesters murder it.
The sucking sound is the emptied blood bags as the vampire bish uniparty economy manically
just crush them and yea they are.
Always idiots as a few decades entitled thieving bish bureaucratic locusts tell you its different this time.

Most Will Lose All Their Money... - Catherine Austin

[aedens]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UEsdnVS5a4I
thread: zech

[aedens]

Guys were said as fuel thieves as the open border brit morons let them pour in by the countless millions.

There have been two separate recent incidents involving arrests related to Iranian interests and British military bases:

RAF Fairford (England): On September 27, 2026, five men were arrested near RAF Fairford in Whelford, England, on suspicion of preparing a terrorist act. kob.com
The arrests followed reports of three suspicious vehicles traveling toward the base, which is used by the U.S. to launch strikes against Iranian missile sites. kob.com
Authorities are investigating a possible link to Iran, and bomb disposal robots were used to examine the vehicles.
kob.com
RAF Akrotiri (Cyprus): On July 17, 2026, a British man with Azerbaijani citizenship, Rashad Sultanov, was arrested by Cypriot police on suspicion of spying for the Iranian military. BBC
He is accused of conducting "hostile surveillance" on RAF Akrotiri and sharing that information with the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.
BBC
This case marks the first time an alleged offense under the UK's 2023 National Security Act has been investigated in an overseas territory. BBC

https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/2104222 ... sts-deploy

[aedens]

That confusion is the point. Yuri Bezmenov, the Soviet defector who spent the 1980s warning American audiences about ideological subversion, argued that an adversary rarely needs an army when it can flood a country with enough contradictory information that its own institutions cannot agree on what is happening or who is responsible.

Arc of Instability.
Then He moved one at a Time.
Then the Fools still funded every one that walked out.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-bHvk2hQXoY

The full list, as tallied by Israel, includes the following 77 delegations:

Suriname
Tuvalu
Turkmenistan
Yemen
Egypt
Panama
Senegal
Palestine
Sudan
Tunisia
Turkey
Venezuela
Antigua and Barbuda
Belize
Congo
Oman
Qatar
Saudi Arabia
Tonga
Uzbekistan
Angola
Barbados
Colombia
Comoros
Dominica
Djibouti
North Macedonia
San Marino
South Africa
Somalia
Algeria
Bangladesh
Brunei Darussalam
Brazil
Chile
Democratic Republic of Congo
Lebanon
Liberia
Eritrea
Chad
Central African Republic
Libya
Mauritania
Jordan
Nicaragua
Madagascar
Niger
Peru
Saint Lucia
Slovenia
Afghanistan
Bahamas
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Botswana
North Korea
Eswatini
Syria
Uganda
Pakistan
Lesotho
Bolivia
Spain
Cuba
Equatorial Guinea
Iran
Kyrgyzstan
Iraq
Mozambique
Myanmar
Ireland
Maldives
Indonesia
Kuwait
Namibia
Malaysia
Guyana
Kenya

https://saturday-october-seven.com/

When they occur they will provide unmistakable evidence that one of the Almighty's appointed seasons has begun and that the end of this age has arrived. Tue Aug 15, 2017 12:20 pm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUOrncxxFzo

thread: amos, zech, zerozerozero