Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

[aedens]

The lipstick period.
I did take your advise just not as advanced as your percentage forwarded.

Tue May 26, 2026 8:23 am
7.43% short
face ripper
wait for it...

Sold some short position and at 8.51% end close as input cash value. Jun-05-2026 01:10:38 PM ET
The color of the lipstick does not change the condition of the plantation.
viewtopic.php?p=30018#p30018
After the shock value maybe buy some back. Noted September will look around as who pretends to fathom
the condition they are actually in.

Hedged neutral and as before H.
Hope all is well.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8eCmTNS8eGk

thread: lightswitch

[Higgenbotham]

The lipstick period.
I did take your advise just not as advanced as your percentage forwarded.

Searching for key word lipstick shows you first started warning of the lipstick period April 13. Just 2 or 3 days later I started adding shorts. But I had only converted about 50 percent to triple inverse before today's drop. Will try to do more later. Not doing anything now.

[Higgenbotham]

The reason they flood the world with dollars every time there's a hint of a crisis is to keep international trade flowing.

Does the federal reserve flood the world with dollars each time there is a financial crisis in order to keep international trade flowing?

Yes. During severe financial crises, the Federal Reserve effectively "floods" the global financial system with U.S. dollars. It does this to maintain global economic stability, prevent catastrophic credit freezes, and keep international trade flowing, since the dollar serves as the primary currency for global commerce and debt settlement.

The Fed accomplishes this primarily through the following established mechanisms:

Dollar Liquidity Swap Lines: The Fed creates or expands emergency "swap lines" with major foreign central banks. These facilities allow foreign central banks to temporarily trade their local currencies for U.S. dollars. These central banks then lend the dollars to overseas commercial banks so they can continue to fund international trade and settle debts.

FIMA Repo Facility: The Fed offers permanent repurchase (repo) operations for Foreign and International Monetary Authorities (FIMA). This allows over 150 foreign central banks and international monetary institutions to temporarily exchange their U.S. Treasury securities for dollars without having to sell off those assets in the open market.

Quantitative Easing (QE): During crises, the Fed purchases massive quantities of U.S. government bonds and mortgage-backed securities. This floods the domestic banking system with reserves, which inevitably leak into global markets, lowering global borrowing costs and providing essential liquidity.

While the Fed does this to act as the de facto international lender of last resort, its primary legal mandate is to protect the U.S. economy. By providing other nations with dollars, the Fed prevents financial panics abroad from spiraling into a catastrophic collapse of U.S. households and businesses.

Google AI response is the source of the above.

Sending billions of dollars abroad in the middle of a historic economic crisis might seem crazy: As America's economy crumbles, why are we moving our precious dollars *out* of the country?

The answer has to do with the Fed's unique position in the global economy. Dollars are the lynchpin of global trade. International loans, debts, and bank transactions are largely done with dollars. Foreign central banks need dollars to stabilize their financial systems. The dollar isn't just America's money. It's the world's money. It's why when the COVID-19 crisis hit, there was a record-breaking rush to get dollars around the globe. And the Fed is the only institution with the power to print them.

https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2020 ... -the-world

[Fullmoonn]

When the Soviet Union collapsed there was still civilization in other parts of the world to “keep the lights on”.

If America had a similar collapse but as the world’s reserve currency, do we take all of the civilized world down with us?

If our currency fails will all other currencies tied to us fail or will they find their own value?

I felt sure enough about what will happen to say that the result of the financial collapse in the US will be that international trade will grind to a halt and not get restarted.

My more specific predictions would be:

• There will be a major global financial panic and crisis. Supply chains will break, resulting in unavailability of critical raw materials and components. Global trade will begin to shut down. As it begins to become apparent that the supply chain linkages are permanently broken, the global interlinked financial markets will shut down and cease to exist. This will all happen very quickly. It will not take years from the initial panic.

Maybe we'll soon find out if this is what happens.

The reason they flood the world with dollars every time there's a hint of a crisis is to keep international trade flowing. One day it will no longer work.

Given that it's breaking apart before our eyes and that sadly, your predictions will be apparent not only soon but probably come upon us like the metaphor of the incoming tsunami. Because the tide has obviously gone out fast far and food and energy will once again regain their central position.

[Fullmoonn]

https://www.breitbart.com/tech/2026/05 ... argentina/

Report: Billionaire Peter Thiel Flees America, Moves Family to Argentina

Billionaire investor Peter Thiel has reportedly moved his family to Buenos Aires, Argentina, in order to get away from high taxes in the United States — and to flee what he suspects will be a nuclear war and runaway AI.

I’m not familiar with Argentina’s last fourth turning but if it was the dirty war 1976-1983 this might’ve been a smart move.

Rats jumping off the sinking ship... A cast of characters at the top who will make future historians wonder how we could have gotten so sophisticated yet led by a cast of malevolent, despicable evil doers who are happy to bring everything down in order to personally benefit while greatly reducing the human population. Good luck with everyone's preps and hopefully you're situated accordingly.

[Higgenbotham]

Today I was at one of those school events where everybody gets an award. Then the kids that "tried hardest" and went from illiterate to reading a few words got another award. The high achievers got nothing. This is another case of following the money. Disabilities are where the money's at.

That will rectify itself by the time the bottom of the new dark age is reached. The Archdruid says the survival rate will be 5%. I say less than 1%. 8 billion to something a bit less than 80 million ("a few tens of millions when the bottom is hit in two or three centuries"). But, hey, maybe everyone gets an award for just a little while longer on the way down. Until we run out of other people's money.

A few days ago I overheard a conversation between 2 women where one said, "Joe is going to get his 100% soon" and the other one replied that some relative of hers was going to "get his 100% soon" also. Then the first went on to say that once Joe gets his 100% they will no longer have to pay property tax. That seemed a little farfetched to me until I read this:

Do veterans that are 100% disabled pay property taxes?

AI Overview

In many states across the U.S., veterans who are rated 100% permanently and totally disabled by the VA are completely exempt from paying property taxes on their primary residence. Because it is a state-level policy, the exact eligibility rules, surviving spouse benefits, and application requirements vary.

The Exemption: In Texas, veterans with a 100% disability rating (or a determination of individual unemployability) from the VA are completely exempt from paying property taxes on their residence homestead.

Primary Residence Only: This exemption can only be applied to a single residence homestead that the veteran owns.

Surviving Spouses: The exemption can transfer to an unremarried surviving spouse if they continue to live in the home.

Disabilities are now where the money is at in the United States.

Cradle to grave and beyond for the surviving spouse.

Joe has a severe case of gout which has nothing to do with his military service. He was bowling at his wife's Christmas party. Quite well in fact.

Have another beer.

[Higgenbotham]

Given that it's breaking apart before our eyes and that sadly, your predictions will be apparent not only soon but probably come upon us like the metaphor of the incoming tsunami. Because the tide has obviously gone out fast far and food and energy will once again regain their central position.

Fruits and vegetables from Chile will be a thing of the past. If Thiel is in Argentina and close to the border of Chile, he may be able to get some of those if he is lucky.

[Higgenbotham]

Last weekend, I had a wide ranging 2 hour conversation with a young woman (age 18) who is the daughter of immigrants to the US. I've noticed many immigrants don't think this is the land of milk and honey once they've been here for awhile, but some of the things this young woman said were quite surprising to me.

I don't use the words "dark age" when talking to people in real life, but several topics that have been discussed in this virtual dark age hovel came up. She asked me what I thought of AI. I said the first thing that comes to mind with regard to any new technology is whether you believe the civilization is on the ascent or the decline. If you believe the civilization is on the ascent, and you are right about that, then AI will probably on net be a positive and force for good. However, if you believe that the civilization is on the decline...at which point she interjected, "Oh, definitely!"...and then I finished my thought.

Which of course the thought I finished was that if you think the civilization is on the decline then any new technology such as AI in particular will be a net negative and a force for evil.

What is Mo Gawdat referring to when he says children are being molested on camera and nothing is being done?

When Mo Gawdat discusses the horrors of children being molested on camera, he is referring to the global crisis of Child Sexual Abuse Material (CSAM) and live-streamed child exploitation rings. He frequently points to this grim reality to emphasize the moral and ethical failures of humanity, expressing deep frustration that despite having advanced surveillance and digital tracking technologies, the networks that produce, buy, and trade this material continue to thrive.

Specifically, his critique focuses on a few compounding issues:

Digital Scale: Global authorities (such as the National Center for Missing and Exploited Children) receive tens of millions of cyber tips and track hundreds of millions of files containing child exploitation, but law enforcement agencies are constantly overwhelmed and unable to keep pace with the volume of abuse.

Live-Streamed Abuse: He frequently references the dark commercialization of this crime, such as international, on-demand webcam operations that allow predators to pay for the live-streamed abuse of children.

Technology and Ethics: Gawdat argues that humanity's flawed value system allows these "unspeakable" crimes to continue. He points out that while technology is highly capable of identifying and stopping this content, the monetization of human attention on social platforms and an overall lack of societal awareness allow the dark web and exploitative networks to flourish in plain sight.

The above was generated by Google AI. I had seen a clip of this in an introduction to a video on Diary of a CEO, which is what prompted my question.

[Higgenbotham]

1:37:22
1 hour, 37 minutes, 22 seconds
And we know this because historically this has always been true. When empires collapse, infrastructure collapses. Which empire do you think is collapsing?
1:37:30
1 hour, 37 minutes, 30 seconds
The United States empire. Uh the United States empire is collapsing. Yes. Uh and who is taking its place?
1:37:38
1 hour, 37 minutes, 38 seconds
No one can take the place of the American empire. So we live in a unipolar moment. And the closest historical analogy to today is something called the Bronze Age collapse.
1:37:48
1 hour, 37 minutes, 48 seconds
The bronze bronze age.
1:37:49
1 hour, 37 minutes, 49 seconds
The bronze age collapse. This happened um about over 3,000 years ago.

https://youtu.be/BTJGr78-zyw?t=5842

If I recall, some years ago Trevor on this forum said he was surprised more people don't reference the Bronze Age collapse when making comparisons.

[Higgenbotham]

What is Professor Jiang saying about the bronze age collapse and why it is relevant to today?

AI Overview

Professor Jiang (commentator and educator Jiang Xueqin) describes the Late Bronze Age Collapse as a "systems collapse" driven by hyper-globalization, extreme wealth inequality, and a concept known as "elite overproduction".

He argues this history is highly relevant today for several key reasons:

Hyper-Globalization Vulnerability: He compares the deeply interconnected nature of the Late Bronze Age (where empires relied heavily on a singular global trade commodity, tin) to our modern reliance on tech and supply chains, warning that these intricate systems are fragile and prone to sudden, cascading failures.

Elite Overproduction: He utilizes historian Peter Turchin's theory, arguing that modern society is producing too many elites (wealthy, educated, and power-hungry individuals) competing for limited power and resources. This leads to intense social friction, corruption, and a disconnect between the ruling class and the working public.

Financialization & Exploitation: He contends that capital fundamentally alters human behavior, transforming societies from community-focused to utilitarian. While this globalization initially brings massive wealth, it eventually leads to exploitation, wealth disparity, and economic stagnation.

Ultimately, Professor Jiang suggests we are witnessing a similar "unipolar moment" (the collapse of a single dominating empire) and warns that the inherent flaws of modern global capitalism could lead to a similar systemic breakdown within the next decade.

He is also known for his YouTube channel Predictive History, on which he styles himself as "Professor Jiang".

Not a real professor.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jiang_Xueqin

But interesting nonetheless.