Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

[tim]

When the Soviet Union collapsed there was still civilization in other parts of the world to “keep the lights on”.

If America had a similar collapse but as the world’s reserve currency, do we take all of the civilized world down with us?

If our currency fails will all other currencies tied to us fail or will they find their own value?

[aedens]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GDOy9d24auI
You future is already written they say its different this time.
I never got the on the plane but regard the effect.

[tim]

https://www.foxnews.com/us/atlanta-tra ... dom-attack

Atlanta train passenger stabbed about 20 times after maniac allegedly slit her throat in random attack

In a working civilization public transportation is a great way to move people around, build up the economy through access to jobs and recreation without having to own a car.

In a declining civilization public transportation is a place where you can get your throat slit in an unprovoked attack.

[tim]

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/br ... oyd-moment

Police handcuffed and arrested an 18-year-old while he was bleeding out from multiple stabbings because the stabber, a Sikh, accused the victim, a white man, of racism.

The stabber showed no signs of being the victim of violence. He said the man lying in his own blood on the ground had knocked off his turban in a drunken racist attack. And for that, the police arrested and handcuffed the victim.

The victim had been stabbed once in the face, twice in the legs while trying to escape over a fence, and once in the lung. But somehow the police claim not to have been aware of his wounds.

Vickrum Digwa, the 23-year-old stabber, was carrying two blades: an 8-inch “shastar” openly, and a smaller “kirpan” around his neck and under his clothing. During the trial, the prosecutor said that Digwa had “been training with weapons since the age of 12,” slept with weapons, and used “loving terms” when speaking about the murder weapon.

Digwa’s defense barrister claimed religious allowance for openly carrying knives that are illegal for the rest of us to carry. And the judge instructed the jury to consider whether the stabber had a good reason, such as self-defense or religion, to carry his weapons. The national government says that courts should decide what is legal to carry. The police federation says there is no limit on the size of the blade that can be carried with religious allowance.

[tim]

https://www.breitbart.com/tech/2026/05 ... argentina/

Report: Billionaire Peter Thiel Flees America, Moves Family to Argentina

Billionaire investor Peter Thiel has reportedly moved his family to Buenos Aires, Argentina, in order to get away from high taxes in the United States — and to flee what he suspects will be a nuclear war and runaway AI.

I’m not familiar with Argentina’s last fourth turning but if it was the dirty war 1976-1983 this might’ve been a smart move.

[Higgenbotham]

Americans aren’t losing their jobs. The stock market isn’t in freefall. And the official recession call is nowhere in sight. But Goldman Sachs is sounding an alarm about something quieter and more insidious: the purchasing power of the American paycheck is eroding at a pace the economy almost never sees unless it’s already in a downturn.

Neither tax refunds nor savings can last as buffers. Goldman expects real consumer cash-flow growth to slow to just 0.3% year over year by the fourth quarter as the tax refund boost fades. And with the savings rate already near the floor, there’s little room left to offset the income squeeze by drawing down further.

Six decades of data show that real income per worker contracting at this rate almost exclusively happens when the economy is already in a formal downturn. Right now, it isn’t. But Goldman’s message is clear: your paycheck doesn’t know that.

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/not-r ... 00512.html

[aedens]

Unsynchronized expansion, with countries in various phases of the business cycle amid a range of fiscal, monetary, and geopolitical crosscurrents. The U.S. demonstrated a mix of cycle dynamics, with solid economic activity, despite lingering softness in the labor market. While China has yet to display clear signs of cyclical improvement, most developed-market economies showed early signs of strengthening, with favorable policies providing incremental support.
Sigma 9 Jolt report.
BLS and Quants report.
Node zone structures in self inflicted stupidity's.
==================================
Asset Allocation Research Team examined business cycle approach.
One day it just stopped. Concentration risk was noted.

Iran is pissing up a rope and no sane regime cares.

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending May 29, 2026
U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.9 million barrels per day during the week ending May
29, 2026, which was 90 thousand barrels per day less than the previous week’s average.
Refineries operated at 94.7% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production decreased
last week, averaging 9.4 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production increased, averaging
5.2 million barrels per day.
U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.4 million barrels per day last week, increased by 1.2 million
barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged
about 5.9 million barrels per day, 4.5% less than the same four-week period last year. Total
motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last
week averaged 780 thousand barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 121 thousand
barrels per day.
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve)
decreased by 8.0 million barrels from the previous week. At 433.7 million barrels, U.S. crude oil
inventories are about 3% below the five-year average for this time of year. Total motor gasoline
inventories increased by 3.4 million barrels from last week and are 5% below the five-year
average for this time of year. Both finished gasoline and blending component inventories
increased last week. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 1.5 million barrels last week and are
about 3% below the five-year average for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories
increased by 2.1 million barrels from last week and are 39% above the five-year average for this
time of year. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 2.6 million barrels last week.
Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.4 million barrels per day, up
by 3.0% from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product
supplied averaged 8.8 million barrels per day, up by 0.6% from the same period last year.
Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.6 million barrels per day over the past four weeks, up
by 1.2% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was up 0.4% compared with
the same four-week period last year.

[aedens]

sold 2 percent sds existing to deploy sweeps
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=peQhtPQ2Kzk
finding solar tech over half off to trim the grid tards
.028 total debt to assets.
Zombie Nation of useful idiots being drug to Hell.

[Higgenbotham]

Take it on the Run by REO Speedwagon
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t7Csc6l4QLs

"I know the neighborhood and talk is cheap when the story is good and the tales grow taller on down the line."

They should've got some more lipstick on that pig.

AI does OK here in my opinion.

AI Overview

"Putting lipstick on a pig" is a classic Wall Street idiom for making a fundamentally flawed or overvalued asset look like a solid investment. During stock market bubbles, brokers use clever marketing, complex derivatives, or rebranded corporate jargon to disguise risky, unprofitable stocks as revolutionary opportunities.

The Anatomy of a Bubble

Historically, periods of irrational exuberance follow a predictable cycle:

The Displacement: A new technology or massive economic shift (like AI, subprime mortgages, or the internet) catches public attention.
The Boom: Easy credit and massive hype pull in retail investors. Asset prices detach from underlying fundamental metrics.
The Euphoria: The market is "tarted up". Every company suddenly rebrands to associate itself with the latest trend to boost its valuation.
The Profit Taking / Panic: Smart money quietly exits as growth forecasts fail to materialize. The public is left holding the bag.

For a detailed breakdown of how to identify artificial hype and protect your portfolio from inflated assets:

Dressing Up the "Pig"

When a bubble is inflating, companies and financial institutions often use superficial tweaks to make a fundamentally poor business model look incredibly attractive:

Creative Accounting & Non-GAAP Metrics: Instead of using standard profitability (like net income), companies highlight flashy customized metrics (e.g., "Adjusted EBITDA"). This hides the actual cash burn under layers of glossy marketing.
The "Hype Cycle" Rebrand: Corporate entities rapidly pivot their core messaging to align with the latest buzzword to drive a speculative frenzy.
Complex Derivatives: Wall Street creates repackaged products (similar to those seen in the 2008 crisis) to mask the risk and sell bad debt to unsuspecting buyers.
Selective Disclosure: Aggressive marketing pushes glowing future projections, while minimizing or burying the harsh fundamentals in the fine print.

Cutting Through the Noise

The best defense against a market bubble is relying on foundational valuation rather than the "greater fool" theory. As Benjamin Graham famously noted, price is what you pay; value is what you get.

To spot whether you are looking at true value or just lipstick on a pig:

Look beyond social media hype and check the free cash flow.
Avoid investments driven purely by momentum.
Pay attention when insiders begin selling their shares.

[Higgenbotham]

When the Soviet Union collapsed there was still civilization in other parts of the world to “keep the lights on”.

If America had a similar collapse but as the world’s reserve currency, do we take all of the civilized world down with us?

If our currency fails will all other currencies tied to us fail or will they find their own value?

I felt sure enough about what will happen to say that the result of the financial collapse in the US will be that international trade will grind to a halt and not get restarted.

My more specific predictions would be:

• There will be a major global financial panic and crisis. Supply chains will break, resulting in unavailability of critical raw materials and components. Global trade will begin to shut down. As it begins to become apparent that the supply chain linkages are permanently broken, the global interlinked financial markets will shut down and cease to exist. This will all happen very quickly. It will not take years from the initial panic.

Maybe we'll soon find out if this is what happens.

The reason they flood the world with dollars every time there's a hint of a crisis is to keep international trade flowing. One day it will no longer work.