Generational Dynamics World View News

[Trevor]

We overestimated Russia's military strength, but underestimated the price they (or Putin) were willing to pay to accomplish these goals. Estimates are around 250,000 dead Russians over the past 3.5 years, and over 3,500 tanks destroyed, with independent verification. I've noticed over the last three-four months, vehicle losses have plummeted, alongside reports of seeing them on the battlefield. I expect they've exhausted their Soviet-era reserves and have to rely on whatever their manufacturing can produce. They've had far more luck mass producing artillery shells and drones than tanks/aircraft/IFVs. Over 90% of their assaults are Shahed drones, not ballistic missiles.

While their advances are still tiny, they're starting to accelerate. It's been around 1,900 square miles, about the equivalent of what they took in 2024, twice what they seized in 2023. A war of attrition is far from ideal, but Russia's never been averse to heavy losses. It's a cold-blooded calculation: they can replace them to a greater degree than Ukraine. It's not a guarantee it'll work, but even in the First World War, long attrition did eventually lead to a breakthrough.

Younger Ukrainians also have the option of fleeing to neighboring countries. It's against the law, but if things get desperate enough, they're unlikely to care. I still see it as more likely Ukraine will collapse than Russia, though I don't completely rule the latter out. A significant percentage of soldiers on both sides are in their 40s.

No, we won't rebuild our production to what it's going to need when war breaks out, but no one is ever prepared for a large-scale conflict. In 1914, all sides ran out of artillery within 3-4 months, forcing them to begin a crash production. However, it would have been worse for us in Japan had attacked in 1940, rather than 1941, so any preparation we make now will make things easier.

China's the world's assembly line, but unlike the United States in WWII, doesn't have the same innovation. Much of what they have managed has come from stealing data and with their electronics, crucial roles are filled by Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, all American allies. The CCP would have been better off if the Ukraine invasion hadn't happened, forcing us to realize how unprepared we were for a long conflict, but that could add additional pressure on them to act quickly.

[Navigator]

China's Achille's heel has always been, and still is, food.

Once a war starts, their agricultural imports will mostly be cut off and they will slowly start to starve. In the end, this would probably bring about the internal revolution necessary to overthrow the CCP.

Same thing brought down the Kaiser and Germany in WW1.

The unfortunate thing is that this takes at least a couple of years to play out.

[Trevor]

The latest news is that Russia's managed a breakthrough near Pokrovsk, surging almost twenty kilometers in a single day, moving more rapidly than anything we've seen since the start of the war. It's too early to say whether this means a collapse of the Ukrainian front, but this doesn't look good. Even in the First World War, a breakthrough was eventually achieved after long periods of stasis. Ukraine's been suffering a manpower shortage for some time, with commanders saying they need at least another 100,000 troops on the frontline to plug the gap.

When it comes to Europe, so long as there's even a remote hope of America taking the lead, they're not going to do what's necessary to rebuild their military. Poland, the Baltics, and Finland are the only exceptions. Even Eastern Europe hasn't moved at the necessary speed, although unlike Western Europe, they've at least done something.

At this point, Putin's got no reason to stop. Even losing a quarter of a million Russians won't matter if they manage to consume Ukraine, conscript anyone unable to flee as cannon fodder. What I wonder is whether this will motivate NATO and especially Trump to act. In the Second World War, we didn't begin rebuilding our military, expecting a repeat of WWI, only France fell in six weeks.

[FullMoon]

It's clear to anyone honest AND in their right mind that Ukraine is essentially a lost cause. Europeans are panicking but they're crazier than the local loonies Leftists and the Russians certainly don't want anything to do with them besides giving them a lesson and putting them in their place. As is proper.
We can only hope that Trump is smart enough not to have been persuaded by their groveling and makes a deal with Russia that puts America first and gives us the edge we need that's been demolished by decades of stupidity and nation destroying decisions.

[Navigator]

The Russian breakthrough yesterday was surprisingly deep compared to daily progress over the past months. However, the breakthrough appears to be only infantry with small arms, as little to no heavy equipment is evidently with them.

Reports are that the Ukrainians in the area are critically short of personnel, and that enabled the breakthrough. However, the Ukrainians are quickly moving to counter attack, and may knock back the Russians who do appear to be somewhat overextended in the breakthrough area. It will be a race between Russians reinforcing and consolidating gains, and Ukrainians counter attacking.

But it does indeed appear that cracks are starting to form in the up to now formidable Ukrainian defenses.

There is no point in trying to "negotiate" with Putin. He will only use talks to his advantage.

[Trevor]

We'll know in a couple weeks if this is a start of the Ukrainian front line breaking or merely a brief surge designed to send a message ahead of talks. Either way, it's still significant and I agree with Navigator that the cracks are beginning to show. Even with outside aid, Russia is still a lot bigger and has proven itself willing to endure devastating casualties for minor objectives. However, they can replace their losses; Ukraine can't.

The cost has been devastating. Close to a million casualties, with 250,000 dead for Russia, exhausting their vast Soviet-era stocks. They've lost around 4,000 tanks and 20,000 vehicles that can be independently verified, so the actual losses are certainly higher. They haven't managed to control the skies, and the war continues despite most analysts thinking it'd be over in a month at the outset. After 3.5 years, NATO would easily have been able to counter them... if they'd made even a moderate effort at rebuilding their military.

I've long suspected Trump has wanted to have NATO do the heavy lifting so we could focus all our efforts on China. After 3.5 years, though, they still haven't managed to get it together. Aid being held up in Congress led to lots of pretty speeches, but little substance. Trump temporarily cutting off aid led to hysterical proclamations all over social media and political press, declaring: "We'll never, ever forgive America for this!" Again, however, there's little substance to this, merely smoke. Financial aid is important, but Ukraine needs actual material to fight with.

It wasn't until 2024 that we saw any significant increase in military spending, and most of that was in Eastern Europe, who have a personal memory of Soviet domination. Western Europe has barely done anything. Germany's efforts are still stuck in committee, Britain and France were already at the 2% guideline (and neither has increased this over the last 3 years), Spain, Portugal, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Italy still haven't even begun. It's been so long since they've stood on their own, they've forgotten how. They'd have to make a few cuts to their social programs, but this is anathema to their public. Sure, they're happy to post "Slava Ukraine" and lecture the U.S. about how we've betrayed them, but while it makes them feel good about themselves, slogans don't equal preparedness.