Financial topics

[richard5za]

Hi all here who are closely following S&P 500:
Probably the busiest reporting week of the year coming up, also with some big players reporting.
Tuesday and Wednesday is FOMC, also during the week includes home sale info, GDP estimate for June quarter, plus consumer confidence. Could be an "down upside glupp" week on the markets?

My reading is that the overall trend currently remains down? What do you think?
What is the Elliot chart currently saying Phong?

Going forward I believe the key issue is how the FED chooses to deal with inflation. Long term real good for America they genuinely deal with it, shorter term feel good "kick the can down the road"

[richard5za]

I have spent my weekend analysing the stock market to try to get a better insight into the trend going forward. (Once you know the trend you can make it your trading friend!!)

So the 200 dma on the S&P 500 is a key insight. It peaked on 13 April 2022 at 4520.34. So to the current date thats less than 4 months. But if you then examine the stock market history since 1929 of the number of days that the 200 dma declined for every bubble correction, one can expect the 200 dma to decline for much longer than 4 months especially for a significant bubble correction that we have currently.

For instance 1929/32 was over 500 trading days that the 200 dma declined; 1974/76 was over 400 days; 2008/09 was over 325 trading days. (Number of trading days in a year is less than 250)

So in the current bear market I think we can expect the market bottom not before 2023!!

[aeden]

Agree.

Also much much pain incoming.

They are refi housing as who can now at a higher rate as
indications are incoming a 700 percent spike in house repos.

Sweeps indicated limited names over 200 ma with positive cash flow paying dividend with
Return on Equity and Return on Investment with Net Profit Margin in positive Sales growth
over the past 5 years. Beta was selected as under 1.

Its grinding downward. Expect pockets of late and missing product target flow is assumed.

Also noted was 8 million small busineses will be destoyed with the Demsheviks tax plane.
We expect 4 million to vanish by spring on the current path these lunatics are on.
The swamp lobby has assured collapse as the current reports indicate.
They sold our asses out. None of the current policy decision stiffs was pointed out they have never run
or even had business.

https://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111& ... 20_pa&ft=4

[aeden]

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/tal ... -lockdowns

[Phong Tran]

Hey Richard,

I wanted to see where the futures would be before posting as there are a few possibilities for elliott wave. I'll refer to the S&P since most people seem to follow that index.

a) We're in a complex 2 corrective wave after the whole drop to 3636 is viewed as a 1 drop and could retrace higher to 4200-4300 - I don't quite think this fits the macroeconomics and where we are in regards to time though
b) We're still in (ii) of 3 of 3 and that the gap at 4020 could still get filled - I'm slightly leaning towards this based on the futures and could see a last short squeeze pop before we fade into the close before FMOC tomorrow and Wednesday
c) We're in 3 of 3 now and the stock market could crash at any point in time

Don't get me wrong, even if we're at option b), I believe it finishes today and then we enter 3 of 3. Looking at the weekly S&P chart, we retraced back to and tested the 14 MA, and we can see a bearish rising wedge which means it should drop this week due to profit taking and selling. I believe we see a weekly drop during this week which would be the start of i of (iii) of 3 of 3, but then an upweek in the first week of August fulfilling ii of (iii) of 3 of 3 before the crash soon after. This weeks drop would close the daily gap 3800 and the weeks after retrace would test both the 50 MA and 14 MA on the daily.

The other reason I don't think we get the crash yet is because there's really nothing the Fed could do to cause capitulation in the markets at this time. A 75 bp increase would goose the market but would also seem like they're not taking the CPI seriously, especially after the BoC raised theirs by 100 bp. Therefore I think they do 100 bp as well which is enough to cause the down turn for the week but not quite enough to cause a crash since it already has been somewhat baked in. The following weeks upturn would be based on weak earnings and this new paradoxical belief that the weaker the economy gets, that the fed would have to pivot earlier. Since market analysts have been pushing this weird falsity for a while now, it gets crushed on August 10 when the new CPI numbers come out and could be between 9.3 - 10. That could be the trigger that makes people start to realize that the economy is broken and that the fed may not be able to save it which starts the cascade of iii of (iii) of 3 of 3 which should have enough force to break through weekly 200 MAs on the charts and the signal that this isn't your normal bear market.

This is just what the charts and data and my own interpretation are telling me. Would I be trying to trade the ups and downs this close to a 3 wave? Definitely not since it could really happen at anytime and I'd hate to be on the wrong side of it.

Cheers

[aeden]

It's not a recession until the White House gives economists on its payroll permission to declare.

Finally, keep in mind this is the same Modern Monetary Theory/Keynesian/making-shit-up-as-they-go-along lot that got us into this
inflationary mess in the first place, with what can only be described as a pornographic amount of money printing over the last three years.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/del ... -recession

https://finviz.com/groups.ashx

Higher debt servicing costs are the result of the government issuing new paper as old paper gets paid off. The new paper will have higher coupon rates, which means the government must cut spending, raise taxes, or take on even more debt, which is how portfolios will be impacted.

As warned over 8 million small businesses will be wiped out as these swamp demsheviks ignore the Chamber of Commerse.
As noted by September a long time ago it will be obvious and now it is as zones are imploding.

The most comprehensive view is here to what we seen early. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_zt66z_F8Ns
As we noted harden your locality since yes demographics is not impossible to garner as group think failure maps also
from the cluster studies forwarded here also from node structures flatly ignored. Fun while it lasted children and you allowed
it as they blame shift with swot metrics.

Market summary as portfolio: 200ma is scripted for scraps in python drilldowns from datsets available on many platforms.

11 million jobs are open. The distortions are real as the swamp politicians morons play with MMT stupiditys.

[FullMoon]

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/tal ... -lockdowns

Perhaps exporting the pandemic was more than just letting the international flights continue.
Trusting the dragon to be our friend has lured us into his lair.

[richard5za]

Hey Richard,

I wanted to see where the futures would be before posting as there are a few possibilities for elliott wave. I'll refer to the S&P since most people seem to follow that index.

This is just what the charts and data and my own interpretation are telling me. Would I be trying to trade the ups and downs this close to a 3 wave? Definitely not since it could really happen at anytime and I'd hate to be on the wrong side of it.

Cheers

Thank you for this interesting and comprehensive analysis Phong, your time and input much appreciated
I agree that this is not a normal bear market

[richard5za]

Vince, have you seen any reliable estimates for July CPI

[vincecate]

Vince, have you seen any reliable estimates for July CPI

They are saying 8.89% but have usually been low this past year.
They are also saying Q3 annualized will be 9.08%.
Last month was 9.1% so does not look to me like things are cooling off yet. I am guessing higher than 9.1%.

https://www.clevelandfed.org/our-resear ... sting.aspx