Bitcoin is continuing down Saturday. Now at $35,212. I think this increases the chances that the stock market is down Monday. But still not clear any panic just yet.
Maybe a bit longer at moderate drops and panic later.
vincecate wrote: Sat May 07, 2022 6:38 pm
> Bitcoin is continuing down Saturday. Now at $35,212. I think
> this increases the chances that the stock market is down Monday.
> But still not clear any panic just yet. Maybe a bit longer at
> moderate drops and panic later.
As I understand it, the Hong Kong stock markets will be closed for a
holiday on Monday, and this is a critical time for both Hong Kong and
mainland stocks. I would think that this uncertainty increases the
probability of some kind of panic. Or, maybe it just postpones things
further.
John wrote: Sat May 07, 2022 6:44 pm** 07-May-2022 World View: Panic?
vincecate wrote: Sat May 07, 2022 6:38 pm
> Bitcoin is continuing down Saturday. Now at $35,212. I think
> this increases the chances that the stock market is down Monday.
> But still not clear any panic just yet. Maybe a bit longer at
> moderate drops and panic later.
As I understand it, the Hong Kong stock markets will be closed for a
holiday on Monday, and this is a critical time for both Hong Kong and
mainland stocks. I would think that this uncertainty increases the
probability of some kind of panic. Or, maybe it just postpones things
further.
I have puts on TLT, the long term treasury ETF. So I watch that. It has been going down rather steadily. As it should, since the largest bond whale in history, the Fed, stopped buying like crazy and has announced they will be selling more and more soon. In the end I think the stock market will track the long term treasuries. So I am more and more confident that stocks are going down. And the speed that TLT is dropping and rates are rising makes me think it is days to maybe 3 months, but probably not longer than that. So I don't think we have long to wait now.
On May 11th we get another CPI number. People expect it to be going down and proving we are "past the peak". Even if it does go down, inflation numbers are so volatile that it does not prove we are past the peak. Next month could be higher even if this number was down. And if it does not go down, it may start the panic.
China is warning of a "grave" jobs situation, because of the spreading
lockdowns. This is a big problem for China, but also for the global
economy because of the supply chain problems.
The Dow futures are currently down over 200 points, after six weeks of
tumbles.
I was serious when I said Thursday of last week was following a
pattern very much like Black Thursday in October, 1929.
vincecate wrote: Sat May 07, 2022 6:38 pm
Bitcoin is continuing down Saturday. Now at $35,212. I think this increases the chances that the stock market is down Monday. But still not clear any panic just yet.
Maybe a bit longer at moderate drops and panic later.
I see support at 33 generally. Limit order for me.
vincecate wrote: Sat May 07, 2022 6:38 pm
Bitcoin is continuing down Saturday. Now at $35,212. I think this increases the chances that the stock market is down Monday. But still not clear any panic just yet.
Maybe a bit longer at moderate drops and panic later.
I see support at 33 generally. Limit order for me.
I'm in, again.
If the stock market crashes I expect Bitcoin to crash even further.
My plan is puts on the S&P 500 and then after crash buying Bitcoin.
