Financial topics

[Cool Breeze]

I've gone short this morning at about S&P 4510. Interest rates are one reason. The other is that in 1929 before the crash the Dow lost about 17%, then had a screaming 5 day rally where it retraced about 58% of the loss, then crashed. That's approximately what the S&P has done since the high near the beginning of the year. This morning I'm looking at recent news and I hear a few people like Jeff Gundlach and Barry Bannister saying they don't expect a recession this year and therefore the stock market will stay high. In a bubble, I don't think that's how it works. In a bubble, I think the crash comes first, then there is a recession.

The alternate theory (which I hold) is that the earnings from all the consolidation will temporarily create good enough sentiment for a type of momentum buying (look, we're rockin' and rollin' again!) and I think at most that lasts till the end of this year. My view is that it's far too fragile (I think you clearly agree already) and after a short summer move, I'm out of all "paper" positions. These boys think they can control this runaway train, but the truth is they are just guessing and the inflation aspects are going to put it totally off-rail, with the recognition next year that the world is in a big recession/depression, especially compared to recent prior years of non-manipulation and WEF/covid consolidation.

[aeden]

from all the consolidation will temporarily create

The easiest way to solve a problem is to deny it exists. Isaac Asimov
Warming, cooling, change.
All the slaughter comes down to who does not have a central bank.
Turn upon the whore and devour Her.

Come, I will show you the judgment of the great whore who is seated on many waters, with whom the kings of the earth have committed fornication, and with the wine of whose fornication the inhabitants of the earth have become drunk."

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inli ... k=xLJRhK-x

thread; amos, lightswitch, sparrow

[aeden]

Investment in coal is stupid, and investment in the expansion of fossil fuel production must be stopped, said the secretary-general of the United Nations.

You where warned to push it into the sea off our shores.
The greatest threat to you are idiots like Guterre.

French aristocrats were planning lavish dinners on their way to the guillotine because they simply couldn't believe there was an outcome where they didn't win. That kind of arrogance never ends well for those that are possessed.

Coal to diesel is economically viable $95 per barrel. You listen to evil vile stupid people.

https://www.netl.doe.gov/sites/default/ ... 2012_0.pdf

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ILy8edY_SJo

[Higgenbotham]

I was talking to an experienced stock market gambler yesterday (he's been at it almost 50 years) and he noted the 90 year cycle of lows - 1842, 1932, and 2022. He threw into that something I haven't ever heard - that both previous lows and the low he thinks is setting up involved China and tariffs. Then I mentioned that we also have the lows of 1942, 1962, 1982, and 2002 converging on 2022. What I didn't say is there is a precedent of inverting these cycles into highs. Previously, there was 1857 (low) to 1932 (low) and 2007 (high) as well as the 25 year cycle lows of 1907, 1932, 1957, 1982 that inverted into a 2007 high.

As the Fed has inverted the cycles again, as happened in 2007, it might be useful to put some dates on these.

March(?) 1842 low
July 8, 1932 low

June 13, 1942 low
June 26, 1962 low
August 9, 1982 low
October 10, 2002 low

If there are perfect low-low-high inversions on the 20, 40 and 90 year cycles, that would predict a fourth quarter 2022 stock market high. Probably there would be some volatility around that, as happened in 2007, which had highs in July and October.

Another possible scenario is that instead of a 7 year bear market as from 1835-1842 or a 3 year bear market as from 1929-1932, it happens a lot faster. With this bubble being much bigger than it was in 2007 and the market having already lost 15% from the early 2022 high (to the recent low), that also seems possible.

[aeden]

Maximum ruin from the dialectic is escalating H.
The 750 mph divercity built plane rides will not even resister in them either
When these damn demsheviks fools live on bug paste not even then
will they comprehend.

[Higgenbotham]

Maximum ruin from the dialectic is escalating H.
The 750 mph divercity built plane rides will not even resister in them either
When these damn demsheviks fools live on bug paste not even then
will they comprehend.

“Wall Street had been doing business with pieces of paper; and now someone asked for a dollar, and it was discovered that the dollar had been mislaid. It was an experience for which the captains of industry were not entirely prepared; they had forgotten the public. It was like some great convulsion of nature, which made mockery of all the powers of men, and left the beholder dazed and terrified. In Wall Street men stood as if in a valley, and saw far above them the starting of an avalanche; they stood fascinated with horror, and watched it gathering headway; saw the clouds of dust rising up, and heard the roar of it swelling, and realized it was only a matter of time before it swept them to their destruction…

But it is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon him not understanding it.”

Upton Sinclair – The Moneychangers

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
We are governed by those who live in an "Alice In Wonderland World" ----- all shall pay the price.

Gerald was the first on the forum to quote this "But it is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon him not understanding it.”. Having said the above about being short in a potential fast crash on the 90 year cycle in 2022, even if it happens, my guess would be there is less than a 50% chance I'll get paid.

[Cool Breeze]

If there are perfect low-low-high inversions on the 20, 40 and 90 year cycles, that would predict a fourth quarter 2022 stock market high. Probably there would be some volatility around that, as happened in 2007, which had highs in July and October.

Another possible scenario is that instead of a 7 year bear market as from 1835-1842 or a 3 year bear market as from 1929-1932, it happens a lot faster. With this bubble being much bigger than it was in 2007 and the market having already lost 15% from the early 2022 high (to the recent low), that also seems possible.

What seems possible, faster recovery? Or with bigger bubbles there is a longer recovery/bear phase? I would assume you'd be predicting the latter.

[aeden]

...the solipsists specializing in irrational exuberance and presuming bad news is good news because,
the Establishment will never let them fail - equities. t

Bonds control it all and fx into july31 sdr resets.
Trust no gov since you are not even an issue.

[Higgenbotham]

"What seems possible" is that years worth of stock market losses take place this year and there is a significant low on the natural cycle in 2022.

If that happens, the stock market will probably overshoot to the downside and there will be some recovery in the stock market before it goes onto new lows in 2023 but there won't be much recovery in the real economy.

[aeden]

True H.

Do nothing then over react. Red and Blue. They treat us like we the enemy.
Democrats.

The energy deficit and the wasting is a feature. For 49 years thay have known this simple fact with energy.
Another lucid point is we seen who just sent fertalizer to Algeria.
As we seen one anounced another world order as the whore to be devoured.

Asmidal, a subsidiary of state oil company Sonatrach, has signed a $7 billion dollar shareholder agreement with two...

Unknwn if it is enough as 800 million live on under 1200 calories a day.
The lack of natgas here for countless products is genocide. In 120 day we will see what and who survives as protien production.