Financial topics

Investments, gold, currencies, surviving after a financial meltdown
John
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Re: Financial topics

Post by John »

** 09-Dec-2021 World View: Crisis eras
vincecate wrote: Thu Dec 09, 2021 2:52 pm > In the US Revolutionary war crisis era they had hyperinflation.
> The expression "not worth a Continental" lasted long after that
> money was replaced. It is why the US constitution says "No State
> shall [...]; make any Thing but gold and silver Coin a Tender in
> Payment of Debts". The people who went through hyperinflation
> wanted to make sure it did not happen again.

> In the US Civil War crisis era the South had hyperinflation. In
> war the losing side often has hyperinflation.

> To me it seems 2 of the last 3 crisis eras in America had
> hyperinflation. So I don't understand why you think crisis eras
> don't have to worry about hyperinflation. To me it seems a high
> probability event during an American crisis era.
You can't just apply a rule without further research. And you have to
use some common sense.

The US Revolutionary War was an Awakening era war for the British.
How that sorts out would have to be researched. Also, the Continental
was a brand new currency with no backup.

During the Civil War, Sherman's March completely destroyed the South's
economy, so obviously the currency would become worthless.

What would be the analogue of Sherman's March today? If the Chinese
won the war, and put into effect General Chi Haotian's plans to
"clean" the American land of all Americans, so that the Chinese could
expand into America. That would probably cause hyperinflation.

Or maybe not. The dollar would still be the world's reserve currency,
with quadrillions of dollars held by institutions around the world, so
hyperinflation would still be impossible. The Chinese would take over
the Fed and convert the dollar into an equivalent dollar-renminbi
currency, without hyperinflation.
vincecate
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Re: Financial topics

Post by vincecate »

Initial Jobless Claims Crash To Lowest In 52 Years

https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-fina ... t-52-years

Fed's duel mandate is fine on the employment side, but clearly needs work on the inflation side.
The CPI in the morning...
vincecate
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Re: Financial topics

Post by vincecate »

vincecate wrote: Thu Dec 09, 2021 2:52 pm To me it seems 2 of the last 3 crisis eras in America had hyperinflation. So I don't understand why you think crisis eras don't have to worry about hyperinflation. To me it seems a high probability event during an American crisis era.
I would also argue that before WW2 the US dollar came very close to hyperinflation. The Fed was supposed to have gold backing USD but did not really have enough. As people converted back to gold and withdrew gold eventually the paper money would have had hyperinflation. The way the US prevented this was by making it illegal for US citizens to own gold.

Anyway, so hyperinflation was nearly 3 crisis out of 3 in the US. Seems a reasonable bet for the coming crisis.

https://howfiatdies.blogspot.com/2010/1 ... ndard.html
vincecate
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Re: Financial topics

Post by vincecate »

John wrote: Thu Dec 09, 2021 5:24 pm During the Civil War, Sherman's March completely destroyed the South's
economy, so obviously the currency would become worthless.

What would be the analogue of Sherman's March today? If the Chinese ...
By making such cheap products for a long time now, the Chinese have already destroyed the US ability to manufacture most things.
The US economy now works by the Fed printing money, the government giving out money and people borrowing money, and people buying stuff from China.
If China starts raising prices, what can the US do? They can't make stuff any more. They can scramble to get India and Vietnam sending them real things for paper money, but that might not work.
vincecate
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Re: Financial topics

Post by vincecate »

Tuesday Was The Biggest Short Squeeze In 6 Months

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldm ... e-6-months

Peak before crash?
John
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Re: Financial topics

Post by John »

** 09-Dec-2021 World View: Scarcity-based Inflation
vincecate wrote: Thu Dec 09, 2021 6:41 pm > I would also argue that before WW2 the US dollar came very close
> to hyperinflation. The Fed was supposed to have gold backing USD
> but did not really have enough. As people converted back to gold
> and withdrew gold eventually the paper money would have had
> hyperinflation. The way the US prevented this was by making it
> illegal for US citizens to own gold.

> Anyway, so hyperinflation was nearly 3 crisis out of 3 in the US.

> https://howfiatdies.blogspot.com/2010/1 ... ndard.html
Here is my table of historical CPI data from 1914 to the present:

http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ww2010.i.cpi.htm

This table shows that there was disinflation during the Great
Depression, prior to WW II, but increased late in 1941 and in 1942.

So let's see if we can be a little more nuanced. Let's say that there
are two different kinds of inflation -- debt-based inflation and
scarcity-based inflation.

Debt-based inflation occurs during Awakening/Unraveling eras, when
people are willing go into debt to make purchases, pushing up prices.

Scarcity-based inflation can occur any time, but especially during a
Crisis era, when goods become scarce.

A Crisis era really has two parts, peace time and war, separated by
the Regeneracy events. So when the war actually begins, there will
typically be scarcity-based inflation, sometimes combined with
rationing.

So debt-based inflation can't occur during a Crisis era, but
scarcity-based inflation does occur, and the inflation worsens as the
scarcity worsens.
vincecate
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Re: Financial topics

Post by vincecate »

Up till today the Cleveland Fed was predicting December CPI would be lower than November. Now it has it higher.
Still saying 6.6% for November but now 6.74% for December.

https://www.clevelandfed.org/our-resear ... sting.aspx
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Tom Mazanec
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Re: Financial topics

Post by Tom Mazanec »

John:
For earlier Turnings, you might be interested in this info on CPI from 1635 on
https://www.in2013dollars.com/
“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.”

― G. Michael Hopf, Those Who Remain
vincecate
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Re: Financial topics

Post by vincecate »

"The all items index rose 6.8 percent for the 12 months ending October, the
largest 12-month increase since the period ending June 1982."

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

I had predictions of 6.6, 6.7, 6.9. So this is only slightly above the average of those.
Question now is if the highest inflation in 39 years is enough to make people worry about inflation, or it will take more than this.

So far the pre-market did not even budge.
Last edited by vincecate on Fri Dec 10, 2021 9:36 am, edited 1 time in total.
richard5za
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Re: Financial topics

Post by richard5za »

vincecate wrote: Fri Dec 10, 2021 9:33 am "The all items index rose 6.8 percent for the 12 months ending October, the
largest 12-month increase since the period ending June 1982."

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
Food 6.1% !!!
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