Financial topics

[richard5za]

On my charts Gold is looking like its coiled ready to fly upwards; I don't know how much. So this might be an inflation warning that Vince is right after all. However, I can't help feeling that longer term gold, the stock markets, bitcoin, and all will be deflationery. A market and economic crash is deflationery and thats where I think we are heading!

[John]

** 09-Dec-2021 World View: Desperation

> On my charts Gold is looking like its coiled ready to fly upwards;
> I don't know how much. So this might be an inflation warning that
> Vince is right after all. However, I can't help feeling that
> longer term gold, the stock markets, bitcoin, and all will be
> deflationery. A market and economic crash is deflationery and
> thats where I think we are heading!

Richard, this is what I was writing about yesterday. You don't know
whether we're headed for inflation or deflation, whether to invest in
gold or stocks. You're totally confused, and you're desperate to
figure out what to do next.

With pandemic advice changing every day, with every city and state and
every nation following different rules, with every analyst having a
different prediction for inflation, tapering and rate reduction,
everyone is confused, and desperate to figure out what to do next.
This is the most confusing and dangerous time in my memory.

[Cool Breeze]

** 08-Dec-2021 World View: Dollars meme

I should have written "I don't really believe that "experts" trying to
predict the cpi have any reason but their "feelings" or the usual "too
many dollars chasing too few goods" meme that doesn't apply during a
generational Crisis era.

Why does a sound, known (albeit) generalized mechanism (excess monetary supply, too few goods) not apply in a Crisis era?

[Cool Breeze]

** 09-Dec-2021 World View: Desperation

> On my charts Gold is looking like its coiled ready to fly upwards;
> I don't know how much. So this might be an inflation warning that
> Vince is right after all. However, I can't help feeling that
> longer term gold, the stock markets, bitcoin, and all will be
> deflationery. A market and economic crash is deflationery and
> thats where I think we are heading!

Richard, this is what I was writing about yesterday. You don't know
whether we're headed for inflation or deflation, whether to invest in
gold or stocks. You're totally confused, and you're desperate to
figure out what to do next.

With pandemic advice changing every day, with every city and state and
every nation following different rules, with every analyst having a
different prediction for inflation, tapering and rate reduction,
everyone is confused, and desperate to figure out what to do next.
This is the most confusing and dangerous time in my memory.

Experts haven't mattered ... forever. Ideas have. And they can be tested. And we can make predictions based on our reasoning and the structure of the economy and fiscal/political activity. That's why guys like vince and myself predicted what would happen, and have been correct. So John, tell me if I have this correct:

You believe that a crisis is coming, so that means deflation to you. But for some reason you don't want to talk about what's clearly happening right now (inflation), so you keep confusing other people regarding your eventual prediction (deflation). The key to everything is, as I have said, assigning probabilities to each scenario and having relative wins or losses that are appropriate. For example, if I'm right about BTC, I win the game of monetary life. That is as big an upside as one can ever have, so it's totally foolish to not stake something on it. But yes, I'm also younger so I have more to gain than a 70 year old, let's say.

If the crisis doesn't come for quite a while still, early will mean being wrong in terms of what one should do economically, just like it has been for those who didn't get in the S&P 10 years ago, and those who aren't in commodities or BTC now. I don't know what is so difficult to understand about this, what I have said happened, is happening, and what I think will happen coincides with the doomsayers, which means already if you think a crisis is coming, I'm totally right. Inflation, then deflation.

If I'm wrong, please tell me how there hasn't been inflation, how the Fed admitted it was wrong, and how cost of living continues to increase. If I'm right, also, please don't call me names as I feel like being right around here is a weird trigger to the pride of so many.

[vincecate]

“Fortunately, in the weeks since the data for tomorrow’s inflation report was collected, energy prices have dropped,” Biden said in a statement, noting a recent fall in retail gasoline prices in some states.

“The information being released tomorrow on energy in November does not reflect today’s reality,

https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-eco ... SFWN2SU0YS

When the president works hard to put a spin on a CPI report before it is even out, it is probably going to be a bad one.

[John]

** 09-Dec-2021 World View: Generalized mechanisms

> Why does a sound, known (albeit) generalized mechanism (excess
> monetary supply, too few goods) not apply in a Crisis era?

The Fed has been flooding the markets for over 15 years, but the
"generalized mechanism" has been failing.

I've explained this in detail in the following posts:

*** 11-Oct-2021 World View: Explaining hyperinflation
viewtopic.php?p=64969#p64969

*** 14-Jul-2021 World View: Fed and the stock market
http://www.gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic ... 558#p62558

*** 19-May-2021 World View: Asking the right question
viewtopic.php?p=61155#p61155

[Tom Mazanec]

“Fortunately, in the weeks since the data for tomorrow’s inflation report was collected, energy prices have dropped,” Biden said in a statement, noting a recent fall in retail gasoline prices in some states.

“The information being released tomorrow on energy in November does not reflect today’s reality,

https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-eco ... SFWN2SU0YS

When the president works hard to put a spin on a CPI report before it is even out, it is probably going to be a bad one.

Does Biden get a sneak preview?

[vincecate]

Does Biden get a sneak preview?

I doubt that but people can estimate the CPI. We know how much of the CPI is from gas, food, etc and you can get some data on how these things changed in the last month. The 4 estimates I found are all up a lot since last month. Someone who understand might have warned him.

[vincecate]

The first thing to point out is that the Weimar, Venezuela and
Zimbabwe hyperinflations, as well as the high inflation in 1970s US,
all occurred during generational Awakening-Unraveling eras. This is
the key to understanding what's going on. The US today is in a
generational Crisis era.

In the US Revolutionary war crisis era they had hyperinflation. The expression "not worth a Continental" lasted long after that money was replaced. It is why the US constitution says "No State shall [...]; make any Thing but gold and silver Coin a Tender in Payment of Debts". The people who went through hyperinflation wanted to make sure it did not happen again.

In the US Civil War crisis era the South had hyperinflation. In war the losing side often has hyperinflation.

To me it seems 2 of the last 3 crisis eras in America had hyperinflation. So I don't understand why you think crisis eras don't have to worry about hyperinflation. To me it seems a high probability event during an American crisis era.

[aeden]

Bradons quote had nothing to with reality. His followers of yet another fiat hoax has been made livestock and those still participatin in it are
weaker, sicker, and poorer.
They worship government as god, and have surrendered their sovereignty and very souls.
Locally the bottom 50% can't afford a shopping cart as they just drag their stuff around in plastic bags.


Dr. Elda Pema & Lynette Zang. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u0piXKsKF3Y Reality cubed.
The pricing mechanism will and has already cratered.