Generational Dynamics World View News

[Navigator]

Also, as some have pointed out, there are only 2 seasons a year when the PLA can pull off an invasion due to sea conditions. Oct/Nov and Apr/May. I don't think they have things in place for current Oct/Nov, so I view Apr/May as the most likely option.

Out of curiosity, have the US and her contain China allies been scheduling 'exercises' during the four critical months?

Yes, we do.

https://news.usni.org/2021/10/04/u-s-u- ... rn-pacific

Of course, putting 4 carriers that close together (see pic in link) could make them quite the tempting target for a Chinese nuke.

[Navigator]

But Navigator, if John is right and WWIII joins this list:
https://www.history.com/news/6-wars-fou ... us-reasons
will the time of year matter a particle? If some birds fly over a radar station and cause a false alarm the war might start regardless of the month.

If a war starts during typhoon season, it would be quite disastrous for China, as they would not be able to get land troops across to Taiwan safely. A "divine wind" could save Taiwan.

My guess is that the Chinese would "suck up" whatever the incident was until they were ready to strike. The result could be similar to WW1, in that Austria Hungary waited about a month to do something about the ArchDuke's assassination.

[Tom Mazanec]

Taiwan won't bow to China pressure, leader says - BBC News
196,912 viewsOct 10, 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mbg4YvJp88k

Taiwan Facing 'Unprecedented Challenges,' Tsai Says
38,849 viewsOct 10, 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uryZ4244znU

Taiwan-China tensions heighten as Taiwan rejects China’s forceful reunification plans
106,712 viewsOct 10, 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XKwIw8zubTg

Tensions Mount Between China and Taiwan
152,194 viewsOct 10, 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QCCI36gtPgg

[Guest]

Even Superman has gone gay.

America has lost the war already.




https://dnyuz.com/2021/10/11/superman-c ... -of-steel/

[John]

** 11-Oct-2021 World View: Explaining hyperinflation

> This argument is driving me crazy. It has gone so far that John
> has segregated me and Cool Breeze on the Mixer section. Me, I
> think we are facing two options, caused by absurd National Debt
> (even when measured against GDP). One is to default, the other is
> to inflate it away. My guess is we will inflate it away...but I
> could be wrong. After the Great Financial Crisis National Debt
> vs. GDP was bad, but not nearly as bad as after Covid. Last time
> we were (barely) able to do the balancing act, I will be
> astonished if we can pull it off this time. Exacerbating this is
> an Energy Crisis. The 70s Energy Crisis was caused by a cartel,
> this one is caused by the depletion of the easily (cheaply)
> available fossil fuels, coupled with the War Against Fossil Fuels
> which, (believing in anthropogenic global warming) I think is
> smart, and the War Against Nuclear Energy (which I think is
> idiotic). So I expect the Terrible Twenties to be the 1970s on
> steroids.

> I will continue to post videos and articles on the current
> inflation on my topic thread, as well as the monthly CPI (next one
> Wednesday, then Nov 10, then Dec 10...). If I see anything
> supporting John's thesis, of course, I will post it there, but so
> far most of what I come across says runaway inflation.

Let me take one more shot at trying to explain why we can't have
hyperinflation now, and why we can't even 70s-style inflation.

The first thing to point out is that the Weimar, Venezuela and
Zimbabwe hyperinflations, as well as the high inflation in 1970s US,
all occurred during generational Awakening-Unraveling eras. This is
the key to understanding what's going on. The US today is in a
generational Crisis era.

The second thing to point out is that we've had almost 20 years of
massived Fed money "printing," and it hasn't gone into consumer
inflation. Yes, it's gone into the banks and into the stock and bond
markets, but not into the CPI, which has remained low. That's almost
20 years of experience that should tell people the cpi is going to
remain low. We should learn from history, and in this case the
lessons from history -- recent history -- are clear.

So I'll try to explain what's going on. Here's one of the iconic
pictures of the Weimar Republic:

• Weimar Republic -- wheelbarrow of money

The above shows a man with a wheelbarrow of money. The standard
narrative is that the money is part of the flood of money being
printed, and that the printed money caused hyperinflation. (To
repeat, the flood of money printed by the Fed for the last 20 years
hasn't caused hyperinflation.)

But where did the money in the wheelbarrow come from? This isn't a
frivolous question. It's at the heart of understanding the situation
in the Weimar republic.

I assume that he didn't print it on his personal printing press, so he
must have gotten it from a bank. He could not possibly have had that
much money in his saving account, so he must have borrowed it. Or
maybe his employer paid him that amount in salary, and in that case
his boss must have borrowed it. The point is that the money in that
wheelbarrow was borrowed from a bank, and increased the amount of
public debt.

Suppose you wanted to get a (small) wheelbarrow of money today. How
would you get it? Where would you get it? You'd have to roll the
wheelbarrow into a bank, and ask them to fill it.

Why would they do that for you? Assuming you don't have that money in
your savings account, you'd have to borrow it. You'd have to be
willing to go into debt. During an Awakening-Unraveling era, money
flows freely and people are willing to go into debt. During a Crisis
era, people are already so much in debt, and so anxious about the
crisis, that they're reluctant to go into debt.

Now let's explain why people were willing to go into debt in 1970s
America.

The people who survived the Great Depression were highly averse to
debt. I have read any number of comments over the years that people
in the Silent generation are stingy, close-fisted, miserly,
penny-pinching, etc. So people didn't want to go into debt in the
50s, 60s, and early 70s.

Starting in the 1970s, the Boomers and the Gen-Xers were contemptuous
of the Scrooge-like behavior of their parents, and there was a major
change -- young people suddenly were willing to go into debt and use
the money to buy shiny new things.

I remember reading an article in the 1970s explaining how to get money
to invest in a new business. You go to five banks and get loan
application forms. Fill out the forms to borrow $5,000 each. And the
article explained that you must mail them all at the same time, so
that you won't have to lie and say that you're already in debt. So
each bank thinks it's lending $5K to someone free of debt, and you end
up with $25K to invest in your new business.

That's the mood in the 1970s. American Express, Visa and Mastercard
charge cards became freely available. I remember seeing a sign
saying, "Can I use my Visa to pay my Mastercard?"

It was that mood that led to the high inflation in the 1970s. The Fed
was "printing" money and depositing it into the banking system, and
consumers borrowed that money, went into debt, and purchased things,
pushing up prices and the CPI. Similar things happened in the Weimar,
Venezuela and Zimbabwe.

Obviously that mood is nonexistent today. People have been badly
burned by the financial mini-crisis starting in 2007. Many people
went bankrupt, and many others lost their homes and became homeless.
That completely reversed the public mood and willingness to go into
debt.

So the Fed was printing money in the 1970s, and people would borrow it
and buy things. The Fed is printing money today, and people don't
want to go further into debt, so the money is just sitting in the
banks or going into the stock market.

So that's the big difference, and that's why I can say with certainty
that there will be no hyperinflation today, no matter how much money
the Fed prints. The amount of money that the Fed prints is completely
irrelevant. The only relevant number is the amount of public debt.

By coincidence, I just received a spam message saying:

> "Pay your way with Citi® Flex Pay. Citi Flex Pay is
> ideal for splitting up your eligible purchases and making payments
> over time through simple monthly installments with a fixed
> APR.*"

In the 1970s, I personally would have found this offer intriguing.
Today, just reading it actually makes me sick. I think that's true of
a lot of people. I wouldn't want even a small wheelbarrow of money
today.

[Cool Breeze]

I think that's a fair analysis. Thanks for the post, John. We have been talking past each other though, and like many people, you mischaracterize what others are saying in order to try to prove your own point, which is not helpful. The others can speak for themselves, but my position is that we will have meaningful inflation (I'm already correct since it hasn't gone away and won't for a while) that will cause problems, but I never said we would have hyperinflation, which is what you keep claiming others are saying here.

Put quickly and simply, I believe that we will continue to have inflation that is well beyond any target "set by the Fed" and it will in turn cause the big market downturn, among other things. Then with the insolvencies of many people and companies, political and social turmoil, etc. the "deflation" caused by excessive debt will surface. How we reset will be the difference between "this too shall pass" and changing world dynamics - better in some places than others - and the world the global elite wants to set up, which is a surveillance and slavery manipulation system.

[Guest]

..my position is that we will have meaningful inflation (I'm already correct since it hasn't gone away and won't for a while)...

Put quickly and simply, I believe that we will continue to have inflation that is well beyond any target "set by the Fed"...

To read your post, it would make me think that inflation is already up to 1970s levels, so I looked up some long term inflation numbers.

https://www.macrotrends.net/2497/histor ... te-by-year

The inflation numbers look quite subdued compared to the 1970s.

Let me take one more shot at trying to explain why we can't have
hyperinflation now, and why we can't even 70s-style inflation.

Seems fair enough. 70s style inflation is not happening according to the linked site. Am I missing something?

[Xeraphim1]

Also, as some have pointed out, there are only 2 seasons a year when the PLA can pull off an invasion due to sea conditions. Oct/Nov and Apr/May. I don't think they have things in place for current Oct/Nov, so I view Apr/May as the most likely option.

Out of curiosity, have the US and her contain China allies been scheduling 'exercises' during the four critical months?

Yes, we do.

https://news.usni.org/2021/10/04/u-s-u- ... rn-pacific

Of course, putting 4 carriers that close together (see pic in link) could make them quite the tempting target for a Chinese nuke.

Ise is a DDH and only operates helicopters until it's upgraded to handle F-35Bs.

Using a nuke on US carriers would invite US retaliation, likely to include China's main navy bases. China knows this. In an actual war or near war setting, carrier strike groups would not be that close together. There is also the problem of actually delivering a nuclear weapon to attack a carrier. The USN has worried about that problem for decades and has some really good ideas on what to do.

[Cool Breeze]

..my position is that we will have meaningful inflation (I'm already correct since it hasn't gone away and won't for a while)...

Put quickly and simply, I believe that we will continue to have inflation that is well beyond any target "set by the Fed"...

To read your post, it would make me think that inflation is already up to 1970s levels, so I looked up some long term inflation numbers.

https://www.macrotrends.net/2497/histor ... te-by-year

The inflation numbers look quite subdued compared to the 1970s.

Let me take one more shot at trying to explain why we can't have
hyperinflation now, and why we can't even 70s-style inflation.

Seems fair enough. 70s style inflation is not happening according to the linked site. Am I missing something?

No, but remember several things: the overall cost of living is MUCH greater now, even though it shouldn't be at all (given technology and "progress") which proves yet again CPI is BS. There are greater levels of indebtedness currently (John admits), or much shallower buffers/stress points now for the average person compared to 1970 - the average person can't withstand these continued rises in pricing across the board. As a result, it will be much more damaging to the average person AND the system, since there are also no "solutions". Volker even said that later on managers of the FED couldn't do what he did precisely due to the debt. We are at that point, in fact, well beyond it. As FED chair from 1979-87, the US National debt was between 900 bn and 2.5 trillion. Just thought you'd like to know.

[Tom Mazanec]

Well, we have had disinflation in the sense of reduced inflation for four decades.
Also, thanks for the analysis, John