Financial topics

[aeden]

Rough water we can steady each other on deck.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/oil-s ... rt-economy

I am glad you all are good to go.
To bad the body farm demsheviks hate America, the Office, and those taking their first breath.

We wouldn't hold our breath however, as we noted previously, the idea that Democrat-controlled Congress would 'help' is beyond a joke and in fact it could corner the President. If he comes asking for a payrolls tax-cut "for the people," Democrats can easily respond "sure, just unwind the corporate tax cuts to pay for it and it's a done deal."

But of course that will crush the stock market - which is the only thing really matters - and so Trump will refuse and Dems can play the "see, he doesn't work for the 'little people' card."

Meanwhile, Daily Caller reporter Chuck Ross asked an excellent question:

"Confused why, from an expectations management standpoint, the White House isn’t letting public know that there will be a spike in COVID cases as testing ramps up."

As we noted the Politics of Envy.

I will pick few longs when more carnage appears after Wednesday 10 yrs.
Oil plunked 27.34
Myself, expected a harder pop on gold.
Stress test survived today so whatever.

"Everything we do will seem alarmist. Everything we do after will seem inadequate" Sun Mar 08, 2020 11:50 am

Stick to an effective tax rate to survive and no education grants for Chinese Hookers please and thanks.
Shumer is still an asshole so was normal today. tyler

[aeden]

Democrat only investment opportunity.
https://www.albawaba.com/editors-choice ... us-1341431

[aeden]

https://z3news.com/w/dumitru-duduman-ch ... k-america/

Sell into strength.

Who are you?” I asked.
“I am the protector of America. America’s sin has reached God. He will allow this destruction, for He can no longer stand such wickedness. God however, still has people that worship Him with a clean heart as they do His work. He has prepared a heavenly army to save these people.”
As I looked, a great army, well armed and dressed in white, appeared before me.
“Do you see that?” the man asked. “This army will go to battle to save My chosen ones. Then, the difference between the Godly and the ungodly will be evident.”

Sell into strength.

Winners and Losers will be chosen.

Not you.

tylers

[aeden]

Black rain in Japan fallout from all the cremations in China appear to be less.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vs_3x46vrLA
feminists fire bomb themselves

[richard5za]

You absolutely do not know that.

John, don't you also expect we have a lot more downside to go?

I think I misunderstood what Richard was saying. Just ignore what I said.

Just wondering about the USA shale industry oil producers. They are highly indebted and might go insolvent in the oil price war. If the credit market can't handle this maybe this will be the panic event that crashes the world's financial system?

[vincecate]

Just wondering about the USA shale industry oil producers. They are highly indebted and might go insolvent in the oil price war. If the credit market can't handle this maybe this will be the panic event that crashes the world's financial system?

The Austrian Theory (which I like) says that when the central bank holds interest rates artificially low that "malinvestment" happens where projects that would not normally get investment capital do. But when people start to see things failing and pull money out many things fail. The fracking being too costly at normal interest rates and then failing fits that theory. The bust and recession seem here.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austrian_ ... cle_theory
https://wiki.mises.org/wiki/Malinvestment
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JGCPzSdlzV4

[aeden]

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inli ... k=JDX9lgd0

its been here since dodd- frank

Watch insurance company derivatives and the banks who once again will and did screw the taxpayer.

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inli ... k=Deoblktw

People you are being set up.. CNBC/Others again pushing the "industry bailout" narrative.. This is a strategy we have seen over and over.. The MSM gets their script and begins to build the narrative, then it happens.. YOU WILL be bailing out multiple industries, including the banks.. BE WARNED.. GM

[John]

** 10-Mar-2020 World View: Shale industry malinvestments

> Just wondering about the USA shale industry oil producers. They
> are highly indebted and might go insolvent in the oil price
> war. If the credit market can't handle this maybe this will be the
> panic event that crashes the world's financial system?

> The Austrian Theory (which I like) says that when the central bank
> holds interest rates artificially low that "malinvestment" happens
> where projects that would not normally get investment capital
> do. But when people start to see things failing and pull money out
> many things fail. The fracking being too costly at normal interest
> rates and then failing fits that theory. The bust and recession
> seem here.

The "malinvestment" explanation is interesting, and it describes a lot
of situations today, where analysts are always talking about
"searching for yield," which means investing in high-risk projects
that promise a few percent more yield than bonds. The other thing
that analysts talk about endlessly is that the Fed has to provide more
"liquidity," presumably so that people who mal-invested in these
projects will be able to borrow more money, rather than be forced to
sell off their assets that are actually worth something. There are
probably trillions of the mal-invested projects around, and when
enough of them start failing, then all the liquidity in the world
won't save them all, and the forced selling chain reaction panic will
start.

So it may well be that many shale oil industry projects are in that
"malinvestment" category, but they're only one of many, and there's no
way to predict whether these will be the particular projects that send
the global financial system over the cliff.

[vincecate]

So it may well be that many shale oil industry projects are in that
"malinvestment" category, but they're only one of many, and there's no
way to predict whether these will be the particular projects that send
the global financial system over the cliff.

I agree, shale oil is just one of many places money would never have gone at normal interest rates.
There are probably cruise ships, airlines, sports cars, etc that would not have been purchased at regular interest rates and now
will not be able to cover the loans. As some of these fail people get worried and others won't be able to roll over their debt,
and so more will fail. On the way up the Fed loves the "wealth effect" where as cheap money helps one place that helps others, etc.
There is sort of a good spiral as they start with the easy money. But eventually there is a bad spiral, and I think we are starting that now.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/w/wealtheffect.asp

https://mises.org/library/austrians-can ... m-and-bust

[Higgenbotham]

The Nikkei's close today falls below the estimated average cost of the BOJ's ETF purchases

Wed 11 Mar 2020 06:13:44 GMT Author: Justin Low | Category: News

The Nikkei closed at its lowest level since December 2018 today

In a parliament session yesterday, BOJ governor Kuroda said that the average cost of its ETF purchases was equivalent to around 19,500 in the Nikkei. The close today falls short of that level as the index closed at 19,416.06.

At this stage, a further fall in Japanese stocks won't only undermine the BOJ's credibility in the market but this will also eat at the central bank's capital base.

For now, the difference is very much negligible but a further 15-20% drop will be interesting to watch. The BOJ will be able to hold the losses since they don't have capital requirements but it'll be interesting to see how far they are willing to go.

https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/the-ni ... t-20200311