Financial topics

[Higgenbotham]

We can try to dig up historical examples but, like I said a few days ago, there is no comparison to today's overvaluation and recklessness, along with structural factors that make this bubble bigger than any that has ever been achieved historically, as it permeates the entire economy. Vince gives a great example of this above, noting that the corporations themselves have recklessly borrowed money to drive bubbles in their own individual stocks. The stock market is still way more overvalued than it was at the 1962 and 2007 highs so, in my opinion, looking at the declines from those highs only gives a very vague idea of what may come. We have a vague idea that the recklessness will be carried to the max as Trump and the Fed are bubble blowers extraordinaire and should commence continuing their ways if it is politically or structurally feasible. Somewhere during recent days, I read that corporations have increased buyback activity on this "dip" and now we see the Fed is making pronouncements that indicate they may actually throw trillions in during the last days of the bubble ("there's a lot we can still do", etc.).

The above says a whole lot of nothing except get ready for anything to happen and it's not over till it's over.

[Higgenbotham]

"We have a vague idea that the recklessness will be carried to the max as Trump and the Fed are bubble blowers extraordinaire and should commence continuing their ways if it is politically or structurally feasible."

Rosengren: Fed should be able to buy broader range of assets if 10-year yields hit zero

Fri 6 Mar 2020 19:01:17 GMT Author: Adam Button | Category: Central Banks

Comments from the Fed's Rosengren

Fed Rosengren
They're going to be buying stocks by the end of this.

If coronanvirus causes Fed to reduce interest rates to near zero, US 10 year cold follow close behind
If 10-year rates near zero there will be little room for Fed to lower rates through QE
Situation would raise new challenges for the Fed
Such an approach should require an explicit guarantee with the US Treasury to indemnify the Fed against losses
In that case, the Fed should be able to buy a larger range of assets or securities
Negative rates would harm banks, rejects them

Full text
The text itself is reflecting on crisis ideas from Marvin Goodfriend and how they could be applied now (or in a crisis).

Takeaway: In a situation where both short-term interest rates and 10-year Treasury rates approach the zero lower bound, allowing the Federal Reserve to purchase a broader range of assets could be important.

Excerpt: "In such a case, as Marvin highlighted in his 1999 article, we should allow the central bank to purchase a broader range of securities or assets. Such a policy, however, would require a change in the Federal Reserve Act. ... Alternatively, the Federal Reserve could consider a facility that could buy a broader set of assets, provided the Treasury agreed to provide indemnification."

Maybe, just maybe, the Fed should stop trying to manipulate markets. There have no power against a virus, let the markets work it out for once. Sure, things will get ugly but buying even more assets isn't going to make the virus go away. This is insane.

https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/! ... o-20200306

I agree with the author's conclusion that this is insane.

My take on this type of thing is you have The 97th Percentile running things and don't underestimate how stupid these people are. They are just smart enough to be dangerous to others and ultimately to themselves and everyone else too.

And he was talking about the appearance on the world stage of individuals, and he was speaking to the growth of the population and the appearance of new individuals coming into the mass of humanity, and these individuals evidently are barbarians. They came too suddenly to be educated and for the knowledge of how to keep the Western way of life alive. And so these people have increased and now they have taken over power and so now we're in the hands of barbarians. They have no idea of how our society came to be and what is necessary to keep it going. And they're fiddling with the controls. You might think of a monkey flying a 747. They have no idea what they are doing and this is not going to end well with the barbarians at the controls.

--Hugo Salinas Price (transcribed from the link above)

"In 1987 Ricardo succeeded his father Hugo Salinas Price as CEO of Grupo Elektra. He is the fourth richest person in Mexico behind Carlos Slim Helu and the 34th richest person in the world with a wealth of around US $17.4 billion in 2012."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ricardo_Salinas_Pliego

It may crash and burn before they get around to it.

[vincecate]

“But I am certain that we are closer to the critical state than we ever have been before. This is why I say the Fed is playing with a nuclear reactor. They think they are not. They think they are playing with a thermostat. But they risk melting down the system.”

https://blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor ... r-reactor/

[Higgenbotham]

“But I am certain that we are closer to the critical state than we ever have been before. This is why I say the Fed is playing with a nuclear reactor. They think they are not. They think they are playing with a thermostat. But they risk melting down the system.”

https://blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor ... r-reactor/

Interesting to read this, as I posted something similar a couple months ago:

The current situation reminds me of something that I can't quite place but it essentially involves matter being able to transition between states with very little change in energy. Maybe it's the critical point on a phase diagram. But I think that's where the stock market is now. There is on the one hand a widespread knowledge that this thing is massively overvalued (which has potential buyers frozen), while on the other hand there is a widespread knowledge that Trump and the Fed are hellbent for reelection and crash prevention and will do anything toward that end no matter how crazy (which has potential sellers frozen). That puts the potential level of the stock market somewhere between who knows how low and who knows how high but the differential is massive, and it can all change very quickly.

Also interesting that both Salinas Price and Rickards were discussing this in 2013, which shows that the when and what really constitutes extreme is incredibly difficult to pinpoint.

In a phase diagram, The critical point or critical state is the point at which two phases of a substance initially become indistinguishable from one another.

[John]

** 07-Mar-2020 World View: The crisis date

The problem with pinpointing is that there are still measures that the
Fed can take. For example, an earlier post said that the Fed buying
stocks would be insane -- and it would be -- but if the Fed governors
were desperae and thought that they could buy some time doing so, then
they probably would, which might make the crisis even worse, but could
push the crisis date out a couple more months.

[Higgenbotham]

** 07-Mar-2020 World View: The crisis date

The problem with pinpointing is that there are still measures that the
Fed can take. For example, an earlier post said that the Fed buying
stocks would be insane -- and it would be -- but if the Fed governors
were desperae and thought that they could buy some time doing so, then
they probably would, which might make the crisis even worse, but could
push the crisis date out a couple more months.

I think they'll do virtually anything if they have the time to get it lined up.

That's why the crash, when it ultimately comes, may need to come from the top of the market and go so fast that the Fed literally has no time to respond. For example, something like a 50% crash from the top that lasts an hour.

[aeden]

We are looking for a coupling mechanism to assert the collapse phase.
Monin and Levine and Roberts even on that level ignored mechanism inputs.

I would revert back a step to coupling and the lag phase we are in for now.
As you suggest correct the <97 are herd events which I can accept for now
as long as node structures stabilize or to say adapt mechanism principles.

If we are grasping a threshold event with GS ans GGS inputs which cluster needs to fail
in what percentages for representations.

I will stay with calories per acre output in my simple view.
I will give the probability in our current effect window.

As we seen before indications as Omega blocks in weather patterns and forcing effects.

We see this as imbalances of wealth transfer of fiat policy that will need to be measured
since the political economy has caused this reality effect in the market we left at the cratering effect.

Slow Joe and the green cloud demsheviks will push us in to the looting effects and I agree they have to a degree.

Auto suggestion as Bloomberg "types" are paper tigers and the planetary mic death cults have done damages
still ignored.

Locally they cannot fathom ear marks of revenue streams to even fun capital bond repair accounting to date.
The catastrophic insurance fund and input gas tax can fund percentages of change as they piss and moan about a condition.
The missing data sets ignored on purpose for political looting.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bigge ... ical-first

Iran now considers Hezbollah its primary Lebanese interlocutor.
Iraq and Lebanon in particular have been staging grounds for the region's proxy wars.
Both are home to Iran-linked armed groups.

They will now promptly starve right were they stand as our people have witnessed before.

Russia has been the source of the ME's problems since at least 1945 when they wouldn't remove their troops and tanks from Iran
and backed Israel coming into existence so they could provoke wars in the ME.
Stalin set the stage, Vlad just carries on. The House of Saud was not stupid then and is not now either.

Orienting reflex, is an organism's immediate response to a change in its environment.
In the end, it’s a word that says more about the helplessness of the accuser than it does the transgressor.

Level I - pathological defences (i.e. psychotic denial, delusional projection)
Level II - immature defences (i.e. fantasy, projection, passive aggression, acting out)
Level III - neurotic defences (i.e. intellectualization, reaction formation, dissociation, displacement, repression)
Level IV - mature defences (i.e. humour, sublimation, suppression, altruism, anticipation)

H is correct to what is seen.

They still contend the Dunning-Kruger effect is not a pathological condition, just lethal; as it is carried out.

thread: cmip6

[aeden]

Chi explained the problem as follows: “Would the United States allow us to go out to gain new living space? First, if the United States is firm in blocking us, it is hard for us to do anything significant to Taiwan, Vietnam, India, or even Japan, [so] how much more living space can we get? Very trivial! Only countries like the United States, Canada, and Australia have the vast land to serve our need for mass colonization.”
“We are not as foolish as to want to perish together with America by using nuclear weapons,” said the general. “Only by using non-destructive weapons that can kill many people will we be able to reserve America for ourselves.” The answer is found in biological weapons. “Of course,” he added, “we have not been idle, in the past years we have seized the opportunity to master weapons of this kind.”
https://greatgameindia.com/coronavirus- ... e-viruses/
The ruling Chinese Communist Party considers biological weapons to be the most important weapons for accomplishing their goal of “cleaning up America.” Chi credits Deng Xiaoping with putting biological weapons ahead of all other weapon systems in the Chinese arsenal: “When Comrade Xiaoping was still with us, the Party Central Committee had the perspicacity to make the right decision not to develop aircraft carrier groups and focus instead on developing lethal weapons that can eliminate mass populations of the enemy country.”
It may seem difficult to believe, but Gen. Chi considered himself to be a “humanitarian” communist, and therefore admitted to mixed personal feelings on this matter: “I sometimes think how cruel it is for China and the United States to be enemies. …” After all, he noted, the United States helped China in World War II. Chinese people remember that the United States opposed Japanese imperialism. But none of that matters now.
“In the long run,” said Gen. Chi, “the relationship of China and the United States is one of a life-and-death struggle.” This tragic situation must be accepted. According to Gen. Chi, “We must not forget that the history of our civilization repeatedly has taught us that one mountain does not allow two tigers to live together.”
According to Gen. Chi, China’s overpopulation problem and environmental degradation will eventually result in social collapse and civil war. General Chi estimated that “more than 800 million” Chinese would die in such a collapse. Therefore, the Chinese Communist Party has no policy alternative.
Either the United States is “cleaned up” by biological attacks, or China suffers national catastrophe.

[aeden]

https://wirepoints.org/progressive-income-tax/

https://crimeisdown.com/
http://heyjackass.com/


https://twitter.com/i/status/1236440927314440192

[aeden]

https://greatgameindia.com/how-china-fr ... aboratory/

yea them

brits can fair trade and will
italy as mentioned in my opinion can be a 51 as we work things out

as mentioned they said can we be friends

we never were the enemy our fathers and grand fathers are buried there

We will not go gently into that bloody collectivist good night....