Financial topics

[aeden]

agree
been selling peaks short
recovery next year when oil hits 65.xx
unless the green cloud destroys everything in its path

last time we seen this clean tech was decimated
and will balance the march sweeps to actual direct cash flow

[Higgenbotham]

https://twitter.com/SevenSentinels/stat ... 9087468544

[John]

** 28-Feb-2020 World View: Buy the dip

> https://twitter.com/SevenSentinels/stat ... 9087468544

> This is another way of saying "markets have never been this
> oversold on any day in the last half-century"

Seems to be time to buy the dip. Hurry! Before stock prices go up
over the weekend!!

• Buy The Dip!

[aeden]

https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/8Fmjc ... e567358352

The two largest European energy companies, BP (BP) and Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.B), cover their dividend at lower oil prices than their U.S. peers. Oswald Clint, who covers the European oil stocks at Bernstein, calculates that BP covers its dividend at about $40-a-barrel Brent and Royal Dutch at $51 a barrel.

WTI down 4.6% to $44.92. WTI closed below $45 2018.

Brent crude below $50, in 2017.
Brent is down more than 25% since the virus began

usual suspect refilling reports indicate
“Preliminary satellite imaging of floating roof tanks indicate that China has increased crude stocks by some 28 million barrels so far this month,” wrote RBC’s Michael Tran. “China comprises over 80% of global stock builds this month and voluntary or not, the barrels have gone into storage and are unlikely to come out in the near term.”
https://duckduckgo.com/?q=Michael+Tran+ ... ws&ia=news

=====================================================================
https://etfdb.com/etfdb-category/altern ... -equities/

pre march sweeps

[vincecate]

I would also mention in 1929, the market dropped about 16% before retracing 2/3 of the loss. The difference is the initial drop took 23 trading days, not 6. The crash came after the 2/3 retrace when the low of the initial drop was taken out. That was about 6 weeks after the top.

I am totally with John on this. Most people don't watch stock prices every day. Most people have not had time to think about the market going down and decide what to do. This weekend most people will get some time and when they look at this and think about coronavirus and everything they are going to want to "reduce their risk exposure". Many more will sell on Monday. There were black Mondays in both 1929 and 1987. I really expect Monday to be a down day.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wall_Street_Crash_of_1929

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Monday_(1987)

[aeden]

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/citad ... ns-trading

unless the feds drone strikes these guys monday is already over

H got enough reserves to to survive a few years
the rest are front-running marks

[aeden]

The main difference noted was the Chinese people know that their government lies to them.
Not so much in the US but the number grows every year.
The crisis of faith approaches.

Take notes from the dry bones body farm.
https://www.c-span.org/video/?c4754168/ ... ar-tactics
http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php ... gra#p50271

next up the children of the damned red diapers

https://www.reddit.com/r/ConservativeNe ... defending/

Active measures exist.

Also: https://web.archive.org/web/20131214044 ... er2003.pdf
The next wave the eu will cease to exist this round. Turkey released a wave today as a matter of fact.
Way over 50 million from one insane zone alone upcoming as the water zone wars increase.
As the spear offensives advanced before the collapsing frontal ring defense to the Russ border
was Zhukov ploy to envelope and then annihilate them.
Borders matter and open borders is suicide.

[aeden]

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inli ... k=hJVYhQMf
may the looting continue until moral improves
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inli ... k=S4GLLzFO

[John]

** 28-Feb-2020 World View: Forced selling of gold?

> I would also mention in 1929, the market dropped about 16% before
> retracing 2/3 of the loss. The difference is the initial drop took
> 23 trading days, not 6. The crash came after the 2/3 retrace when
> the low of the initial drop was taken out. That was about 6 weeks
> after the top.

> I am totally with John on this. Most people don't watch stock
> prices every day. Most people have not had time to think about
> the market going down and decide what to do. This weekend most
> people will get some time and when they look at this and think
> about coronavirus and everything they are going to want to "reduce
> their risk exposure". Many more will sell on Monday. There were
> black Mondays in both 1929 and 1987. I really expect Monday to be
> a down day.

> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wall_Street_Crash_of_1929

> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Monday_(1987)

Vince -- I just heard some analysts on CNBC saying that gold prices
are falling because of forced selling -- people having to sell their
assets to get cash.

Are you seeing anything like that?

Update: I just found an article that confirms the CNBC analysts.

https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/arti ... tal-636127

How do you think gold will fare through all this chaos?

[vincecate]

Vince -- I just heard some analysts on CNBC saying that gold prices
are falling because of forced selling -- people having to sell their
assets to get cash.

Initially gold and gold stocks would probably go down in a stock market crash, though not as much. If someone owns both general stocks and gold etf or gold mining stock they make sell any in case of a margin call. In someways it is easier psychologically to sell the one that has not dropped as much, probably gold. But at some point I expect people to understand that printing lots of USD will make the price of gold measured in USD higher. Remember in 1970 the price of gold was $35/oz and now we are around $1,600. The gold has not changed, but there is far more USD. I expect that to continue.

You can argue that when there is a shortage of demand that printing money to stimulate demand is reasonable. But if the shortage is supply, printing money is not the most logical thing to do. I really think we may finally start to see inflation (though yes, I have expected inflation for a long time now).

I had some puts on the market so I am ok so far.

I also note that when I was a kid oil got up to $120/barrel and now we are like $45/barrel. It seems like it should really have gone up. So long oil is another way to play short dollar idea.

Bitcoin has also gone down some, seeming with the market crash. But the same logic as gold sort of works. If people need to raise cash they sell stuff, so in a crash lots of things can go down.