Generational Dynamics World View News

[FishbellykanakaDude]

"All we are asking,..

..is give cheese some pants...!!"

Your daily non-sequitur, courtesy of Hau Fat Military Grade Super-Speedy™ Kuàizi.

Alright. One more time: What are you on about now, mate?

I think it is a lampoon of "All we are saying, is give peace a chance."

Trevor: I see that as plausible.

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Aloha nui! <shaka!>

[FishbellykanakaDude]

Would this be a plausible way for the war to start? (Not saying it'll necessarily happen this way)

Shortly after the Taiwanese elections, their government declares their formal independence from China. Within hours, China ...

Plot that on an actual timeline, and flesh out as many details as you can, and you've got the bones of a great multi-episode streamed TV action/drama,.. assuming you can weave some characters into that VERY interesting environmental background!

DO IT, Trev,... YOU CAN DO IT....!!

[John]

19-Dec-19 World View -- Escalated bombing by Syria, Russia in Idlib sends tens of thousands to Turkey border

The complex ménage à trois relationship - Syria, Russia, Turkey - under stress

** 19-Dec-19 World View -- Escalated bombing by Syria, Russia in Idlib sends tens of thousands to Turkey border
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e191219


Contents:
Escalated bombing by Syria, Russia in Idlib sends tens of thousands to Turkey border
The complex ménage à trois relationship - Syria, Russia, Turkey - under stress
Assad threatens Turkey


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Syria, Kurds, Bashar al-Assad, Alawites, Russia, Vladimir Putin,
Tartus naval base, Hmeimim airbase,
Aleppo, Ghouta, Daraa, Idlib,
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, HTS, Liberation of the Levant Organization,
Jabhat Fateh al-Sham, JFS, Front for the Conquest of Syria,
Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front

[Guest]

China would starve in the weeks after the first attack on Taiwan (if, indeed, it took weeks for America to act). No way would Latin America keep selling food to china in that event. America would stop it. And how much would the Chinese currency be worth at that point? Probably nothing.

The starving Chinese would riot; patriotism will only carry people so far. The modern Chinese, especially those under 50, have no real skills. They can't install a door, hang wallpaper, or change a tire. They are dependent on local government and phone apps. The average America is far better skilled at everything than the average Chinese. The average Chinese cannot live off the grid or even grow food. Most of the food grown their is poisonous. Even the rivers in China are poisonous now. China would have to move within days, not weeks.

I see Trevor scenario working, but only in days not weeks.

Good luck.

[John]

** 18-Dec-2019 World View: China-Taiwan war

> Would this be a plausible way for the war to start? (Not saying
> it'll necessarily happen this way)

> Shortly after the Taiwanese elections, their government declares
> their formal independence from China. Within hours, China demands
> Taiwan rescind this proclamation, using a combination of threats
> and economic incentives to pressure them. Exports are brought to
> an end, leading to protests on both sides within Taiwan.

I wouldn't say that anything is impossible, but this doesn't seem
plausible to me, since declaring independence would be the equivalent
of a declaration of war on China, and so they would need the prior
approval of the US, which would not give it.

A more likely scenario, I believe, is that China makes the first move
militarily and, once the war has begun, Taiwan's first act once the
war starts is to declare independence.

[Guest]

A more likely scenario, I believe, is that China makes the first move militarily and, once the war has begun, Taiwan's first act once the war starts is to declare independence.

Yes. Exactly. You understand the situation very well, quite unusual considering that you are not Asian. I'm impressed.

[John]

** 19-Dec-2019 World View: Greeks and Asians

> A more likely scenario, I believe, is that China makes the first
> move militarily and, once the war has begun, Taiwan's first act
> once the war starts is to declare independence.

> Yes. Exactly. You understand the situation very well, quite
> unusual considering that you are not Asian. I'm impressed.

Well, just like Asians, we Greeks are good at figuring things out too.

[Xeraphim1]

China would starve in the weeks after the first attack on Taiwan (if, indeed, it took weeks for America to act). No way would Latin America keep selling food to china in that event. America would stop it. And how much would the Chinese currency be worth at that point? Probably nothing.

The starving Chinese would riot; patriotism will only carry people so far. The modern Chinese, especially those under 50, have no real skills. They can't install a door, hang wallpaper, or change a tire. They are dependent on local government and phone apps. The average America is far better skilled at everything than the average Chinese. The average Chinese cannot live off the grid or even grow food. Most of the food grown their is poisonous. Even the rivers in China are poisonous now. China would have to move within days, not weeks.

I see Trevor scenario working, but only in days not weeks.

Good luck.

Not to mention that almost all of China's trade would stop. Nothing would be accepted into the US while exports of raw materials from other countries would also stop. The US can enforce a distant blockade that China would not be able to stop. Plus sentiment would be against China. No imports/no exports and China's economy collapses. Economic collapse leads to internal protests that likely leads to the Chinese civil war John has mentioned in the past.

[Xeraphim1]

https://www.debka.com/russia-sets-up-ai ... ast-syria/

Interesting. Russia is looking into expanding into Qamishli airport in NE Syria; the Kurdish controlled part of the country.

The deal is evidently now in the bag. DEBKAfile’s military sources report. Substantial Russian military forces have since arrived at Qamishli: 50 trucks with 300 soldiers, consisting of a combat contingent for securing the new Russian air base and an engineering unit to build it; Mi-35 and Mi-8 assault helicopters have also landed, as well as Pantsir-S air defense systems for stationing around the facility.

Are the local Kurds cutting a deal with Russia on their own? What does this mean for Turkey? Hard to slaughter Kurds with Russia right on their border.

[John]

** 19-Dec-2019 World View: Taiwan war

The BBC world service had a segment on the coming Taiwan
elections in the shadow of China. Major takeaways:

• The chaos in Hong Kong is causing more Taiwanese to reject the
  "one country, two systems" policy that the CCP would like to impose on
  Taiwan. This favors the reelection of the pro-separatist incumbent
  Tsai Ing-wen.
• According to the BBC, it's uncertain whether Trump would
  defend Taiwan in case of a military attack by China.
• China has become a lot more powerful. The US could lose a war to
  China in the Taiwan strait.