Financial topics

[John]

> After 15 weeks of being neutral, the "smart money" indicator has
> turned towards a more bearish reading. The "dumb money" indicator
> remains in the extreme bullish zone. While not there yet, the
> indicators are heading in the direction that one would expect to
> see at a market top.
> http://www.zerohedge.com/article/investor-sentiment-smart-money-turning-bearish

That's an amazing article. It breaks up the investor community into two
groups -- the dumb investors, and the smart investors -- and draws
conclusions from what they're doing now.

John

[aedens]

> After 15 weeks of being neutral, the "smart money" indicator has
> turned towards a more bearish reading. The "dumb money" indicator
> remains in the extreme bullish zone. While not there yet, the
> indicators are heading in the direction that one would expect to
> see at a market top.
> http://www.zerohedge.com/article/investor-sentiment-smart-money-turning-bearish

That's an amazing article. It breaks up the investor community into two
groups -- the dumb investors, and the smart investors -- and draws
conclusions from what they're doing now.

John

Another tool used since there are many. I was early out but this year has been ok for me on plays.
Given the landscape you can see there footprints and hence the direction of there footprints in context to GD
utilization. As logged in forums SP 1090 was my then fuction. shark fins on techicals now since HFT Alg's muddle tech now.

temp.jpg (28.14 KiB) Viewed 6923 times

Geo Corporate Rent Dissapation alignments resets:
The structural factor is a shift in the composition of U.S. output in the coming years. The economic recovery commences in the fourth quarter of this year as expected and continues into 2010, some American households and businesses will doubt it even though various reliable economic reports will confirm it and keep an eye on the index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) also in addition to PMI.
No it is avarice which is a complex definition. Quote from a friend "what problem since DC Market is fine" This was last year all and get the numbers today tells the tale of lets say 2 city's. We know what we see and it is what it is. They already know guys.
There is no single index used to calculate beta. We posted causation issues that the interest rate in New York has nothing to do with North Dakoto and the Liberal Keynesians always flatly ignore reality. Consumers are found and as a article earlier forwarded they are pushed around like vegtables on a plate.
There can be no recovery since we all know malinvestment must be cleared from the incompetant to competant individuals but this must press further to acountabilty.
Notes: Monday, Oct. 07, 1985
In 1932, with international trade in collapse, Franklin Roosevelt denounced Smoot-Hawley as ruinous. Hoover responded that Roosevelt would have Americans compete with "peasant and sweated labor" abroad. Then, as now, protectionism had a strong if superficial political appeal: by election eve, F.D.R. had backed down, assuring voters that he understood the need for tariffs. Protectionist politicking, however, could not save the Republicans in 1932. Smoot and Hawley joined Hoover in defeat. The Democrats dismantled the G.O.P.'s legislative handiwork with caution, using reciprocal trade agreements rather than across-the-board tariff reductions. The Smoot-Hawley approach was discredited. Sam Rayburn, House Democratic Speaker from 1940 until 1961, insisted that any party member who wanted to serve on the Ways and Means Committee had to support reciprocity, not protectionism.

Thomas Jefferson :
The trifling economy of paper, as a cheaper medium, or its convenience for transmission, weighs nothing in opposition to the advantages of the precious metals... it is liable to be abused, has been, is, and forever will be abused, in every country in which it is permitted.

[aedens]

http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/
Seems to me investors are once again are in grave danger of being driven down the wrong path. Policy changes create high prices and (potentially) shortages, and drive extrapolation of transformation from high energy; but those policies can and likely will be reversed if we have another decade like the '70s. Anyone investing in high energy in 1980 found their plans were busted by the continued drop in energy prices, and the gradual loss of government subsidies. Governments are always the last to react to a change in underlying conditions, and relying on them to hold dis-economcial policies for long enough to get out is fraught with risk for investors.

According to a recent Gallup Poll:

"Baby boomers' self-reported average daily spending of $64 in 2009 is down sharply from an average of $98 in 2008. But baby boomers -- the largest generational group of Americans -- are not alone in pulling back on their consumption, as all generations show significant declines from last year. Generation X has reported the greatest spending on average in both years, and is averaging $71 per day so far in 2009, down from $110 in 2008....
This trend will continue and i see another 12 to 15% reduction as stagflation rips the economy apart as in convulsions of a dying biological unit. A house divided cannot stand. they will say saving is up, maybe so maybe not. I say in history it is your money and not the Bank's so how could trust them without sceptical observation and down right contempt? Americans will find out and as Fred conveyed watching the pot boil. All the young adults are in a process of aversion I have talked to and are in serious free cash flow distress. All politics are local so listen. When the case was heard it was about a coal miners widow with two children. A Democrat will know what happened after that and the causation chain of values that pushed the aspect to what we see exploding today as then.

As we are reminded by Mises
It is characteristic of current political thinking to welcome every suggestion which aims at enlarging the influence of government. Inflation can be pursued only so long as the public still does not believe it will continue. Once the people generally realize that the inflation will be continued on and on and that the value of the monetary unit will decline more and more, then the fate of the money is sealed. Only the belief, that the inflation will come to a stop, maintains the value of the notes. If the practice persists of covering government deficits with the issue of notes, then the day will come without fail, sooner or later, when the monetary systems of those nations pursuing this course will break down completely. The purchasing power of the monetary unit will decline more and more, until finally it disappears completely. The most serious dangers for American freedom and the American way of life do not come from without. What is needed to prevent any further credit expansion is to place the banking business under the general rules of commercial and civil laws compelling every individual and firm to fulfill all obligations in full compliance with the terms of the contract. If you have to convince a group of people who are not directly dependent on a solution of a problem, you will never succeed. Only to bureaucrats can the idea occur that establishing new offices, promulgating new decrees, and increasing the number of government employees alone can be described as positive and beneficial measures. The issue is always the same: the government or the market. There is no third solution.
We have watched this again and they never learn... Even us who have watched from Corporate for decades are stunned and also the social darwinism as they destroy themselves with pragmatic efficencys. They have no idea what is coming and think every one else will save there bent of mind top to bottum.
We shall see. Amos warned us also

[aedens]

Tue Nov 10, 2009 1:15 am
The structural factor is a shift in the composition of U.S. output in the coming years. The economic recovery commences in the fourth quarter of this year as expected and continues into 2010, some American households and businesses will doubt it even though various reliable economic reports will confirm it and keep an eye on the index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) also in addition to PMI.
Meanwhile the lefttards posit:
The same media types who screamed blue murder with undisguised glee when unemployment hit 5 per cent under Bush are now telling us that the current 10.2 per cent rate is being driven by rising productivity and so there is little that can be done about it in the near future. I find this reasoning very suspicious. It looks to me as if Obama supporters have resigned themselves to a persistent high rate of unemployment and are looking for an excuse to rationalise it.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/rosenb ... doomed-fai
As part of the extension of Fiscal Stimulus 1 (they don’t dare call this Fiscal Stimulus 2 for fear of losing all the independent voters):

Jobless benefits have been extended a further 20 weeks;
The first-time home buyer tax credit has not only been extended to April but expanded to include repeat trade-up buyers;
And, believe it or not, the homebuilders, the folks who helped get us into the mess we are in today through their irresponsible overproduction strategies, are going to receive a massive stimulus from the federal government in the form of carry forward provisions allowing the companies to offset losses incurred in 2008 and 2009 against profits booked as far back as — get this — 2004! This is despite the fact that, as Ivy Zelman points out, the homebuilders are sitting on a ton of cash.
This is truly a fiscal policy that is trying far too hard to pursue the old ways of over-consumption, over-borrowing and over-building and it is a policy that is doomed to failure.
Pay attention here.
And lastly, one more convenient comparison between the current environment and the last time we had a real bull market, not on the back of massive credit expansion: August 1982.
1. P/E Multiples were 8x, not 26x.
2. Dividend yields were 6%, not sub-2%.
3. The stock market was trading at a discount to book, not a 2x premium.
4. Monetary policy was aimed at reducing money growth and inflation rates, not creating both as is the case now.
5. Fiscal policy was aimed at reducing nondefense spending, not accelerating it.
6. Deficits were peaking and coming down, not surging to 10%+ relative to GDP.
7. Global trade barriers were being torn down; not erected.
8. Deregulation back then was in; today it is all about re-regulation and government ownership.
9. Union membership was on the way down; today it is back on the rise.
10. The dollar was entering a Plaza Accord bull market, not a mercantilist bear market.
11. Credit, household balance sheets and participation rates were expanding, not contracting.
12. Tax rates, income, capital gains and dividends, were declining then; rising now.

Observation: Farming Culture -ALG's lucust's Vs. Hunter Culture - DCA seekers
If you do not understand that historical contrast stop investing now since by now your depleted anyway "3 trade rule". Was I to adversion minded last spring on Capital preservetion. Yes, and some who where are still in the hunt to farm and we picked low hanging fruit to survive for capital preservation. Even the competant will be eaten alive as we have seen since Business is defined by law. As reminded the Holidays are coming so bonds will crowd.

TNR:
Two things, I think. First, reforming a party is just incredibly hard. The entrenched interests are, well, entrenched. They have strong attachments to their worldview, and their powers of self-justification are enormous. Lose an election? We strayed from the Word. Win an election? The people adore us. In the case of Republicans, these entrenched interests are also remarkably effective at punishing dissent. Theives and Liars pool like blood... Seek his ways and breath free.

A to Z Distorted market
"It's quite embarrassing because the exchange is supposed to mirror the reality of the economy," said Emmanuel Munyukwi, the institution's chief executive. "We have benefited from the distortion of the market."
They gunned the stocks up - castrated the shorts, blow out stops, and then back to business as usual. A maximal harvest, perfectly timed, and no one in the CNBC matrix seem to notice.
Vote wise serfs...

[gerald]

John, in response to a question in your last web log posting.

"How does one explain this? How does one explain a public insanity that's so great that even fantasy reasons don't apply?"

John, I have your answer!

First, put on your tin foil hat.

You see as "everybody" knows we have entered the "Galactic Plane" and will be there for about 20 years, this "plane" has an "excessive electromagnetic force" and this alters our thinking, making people do irrational things. sooooo -- we will have about 20 years of craziness.

Does this work for you?

[Gordo]

The global carry trade, in which the U.S. dollar has been sold short on margin in order to purchase equities and commodities on margin, has become dangerously overpopular among hedge funds in recent weeks and is likely to soon unravel in spectacular fashion. The initial response of the financial markets to a surge in the U.S. dollar, being a major surprise to most investors, will be markedly negative for nearly all equities and commodities.

Some people believe a bear market is imminent, while most analysts continue to repeat the fairy tale that the current recovery "will continue gradually for several more years". However, the U.S. dollar index is still well above its lows of March and July of 2008, and I think its most likely direction in the near term is higher in order to shake out the huge number of amateurs who have been recently betting (using an amazing array of methods) on a continued decline in the greenback. This will take time; subsequently, the U.S. dollar index has to closely approach or even break below its 2008 lows; finally, a strong rebound in the greenback has to begin. It is doubtful that all of these events can occur in less than three months, and therefore there is no urgency to sell your stocks quite yet. Of course, with each increase in the S&P 500 and similar general equity indices, the less upside which remains. This is not nearly as applicable for some commodity-share funds, for which the remaining upside could potentially exceed the entire gain from each respective 2008-2009 nadir to the present.

One great difficulty I had in 2007 and for most of 2008 was in convincing many subscribers that we could have a major collapse for worldwide stock markets. People kept telling me why they were holding onto their favorite shares or funds, because they were willing to "ride through" a pullback of 15% or 20% "or even 25%, if it gets that bad". They couldn't imagine that their favorite holdings could plunge more than 70% (GDX), or more than 80% (KOL, RSX). Now that we have seen what the financial markets did in 2007-2008, it should no longer be a stretch to imagine a repeat in 2010-2012, with of course some twists in order to frustrate those who think they learned "the lessons of the collapse". Since everyone is prepared for a rapid collapse as we had last year, it will of course be a gradual, grinding affair. Since everyone thinks they know the signals which will tell them when it is time to sell, those signals won't work this time around. Naturally, everyone believes that they can be smarter than everyone else and sell after the market has begun its reversal, which means that the initial decline will have to sharply accelerate at some point so that those who attempt to sell after the bear market has begun will end up with much lower average prices than those who have the discipline to sell into strength in advance of the ultimate peak for any sector.

In 2007-2008, the most vital action was to take advantage of opportunities to sell short stocks near their highest points, and to purchase U.S. Treasuries near their lowest points. In 2008-2009, the most important action was to pick up the most deeply oversold and undervalued bargains from October 2008 through April 2009. In 2010-2012, the most critical step will be to aggressively purchase U.S. Treasuries near their lows during the upcoming winter and spring of 2010. A lot of subscribers will want to know what to do throughout the second half of 2010, and for most of 2011; the correct answer will be to do virtually nothing. In a lengthy bear market, as we had from March 10, 2000 through October 10, 2002, the most intelligent action was to sit on short technology and related overvalued equity positions, and to gradually purchase gold mining shares as they began to form a bullish pattern of higher lows. Sometime during the 2010-2012 bear market, there will likely be a similar opportunity to begin to accumulate commodity shares and their funds, since they will probably be among the first sectors to positively diverge from the S&P 500. Even during the 2007-2009 bear market, most commodity-share funds completed their bottoms well ahead of March 6, 2009; for example, GDX had bottomed on October 24, 2008, while KOL completed its nadir on November 20, 2008. As the bear market matures, and the remaining downside becomes progressively reduced by late 2011 and/or early 2012, it naturally makes sense to hedge by gradually accumulating commodity shares. The reason I would strongly prefer commodity shares to other sectors for purchase in late 2011 and early 2012 is that the enormous inflationary implications of current and future worldwide government stimulus plans is likely to make inflation one of the predominant features of the powerful bull market which will inevitably follow the 2010-2012 bear market.

We will have a crushing bear market from 2010-2012 for general equities, and then one of the strongest bull markets in decades which will begin in 2012 (probably in 2011 for some sectors) and which will end perhaps two to four years later. Those are the two most critical elements of the big picture; oversimplified, to be sure, but vital to keep in mind.

[aedens]

> After 15 weeks of being neutral, the "smart money" indicator has
> turned towards a more bearish reading. The "dumb money" indicator
> remains in the extreme bullish zone. While not there yet, the
> indicators are heading in the direction that one would expect to
> see at a market top.
> http://www.zerohedge.com/article/investor-sentiment-smart-money-turning-bearish

That's an amazing article. It breaks up the investor community into two
groups -- the dumb investors, and the smart investors -- and draws
conclusions from what they're doing now.

John

Fibozachi
Boiled down to its base elements ... HFT predatory algo's, which are distinctly different from the Pip Hunter family / type of program, are basically just using what THEY know YOU are using to help screw you by forcing your "technical" trade based on specific paramters.
A quick list of basic (crappy) 'strategies,' which kill retail traders and boutique firms alike include: VWAP (lol), TICK divergence, ADD / VOLD / TICK vs VIX third derivative ratios, intra-day trendlines, any Bill O'Neil pattern, intra-bar stop hunts where a candle's wick triggers obvious sell / buy stops but its real body closes well away from the assumed line of demarcation, Elliott Wave by its lonesome, ANY default indicator / oscillator settings, and that just barely scratches the surface of a basic central component or simple conditional filter. Low volume baby trend days like today typically crush retail speculators and options traders who aren't looking for a high probability scalp of 0.5 to 1.25 ES points or a dime within the Q's and CL but rather a swing trade of 50 - 100 YM points or 2-5 points on Goldilocks and Gurgle.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/17/2009 15:40 -0500
The market is dead, with only Cyborg algos trading amongst themselves, as is the norm lately. No reason to even comment on this. Nobody wants to sell courtesy of moral hazard, and nobody wants to buy courtesy of 100x P/E. Can we just call it a stalemate and all go home.

aedens » Fri Nov 13, 2009 8:47 pm
Waiting since the lines are drawn. U.S. international portfolio investments increased from 2 percent to 29 percent of U.S. capital stock from 1974 to 2007
Stock up and plan for Stagflation. Yes we must stabilize given what priority? We have seen this playbook before have we not. The hour is soon upon us as was fortold. I heard it the other day from a liberal you would step over some one in gutter in your view.
Never have they concieved the thought a man who cares not for his household is worse than a infidel. If they are hungry only fulfill the need . They only get what they need in mine. Food, shelter, and education from idea's they dismiss as fable in there bent of mind. We where asked to feed the fold and seek the lost ones. It was conveyed that a mans right's where violated since he refused a breath test and meanwhile shelter was provided for a woman homeless with her child in that same night, and I regarded it a lesson also. The apathy top to bottum will give way to humilty before the last crash it appears as was the last event we remember in the 70's we had to tough out. Pointless from here on to convey there ass kicking and misery to come. They never learn.
Observations: Farming Culture -ALG's lucust's Vs. Hunter Culture - DCA seekers
If you do not understand that historical contrast stop investing now since by now your depleted anyway.
As recorded I stepped out in forums given blurred signals to wit. Raise cash as we did last time walking slowly out the door.
A man wiser than me conveyed tiny bubbles four years ago and that takes time I venture to say after the resets
on numbers we already trend. We are getting there so all is not lost other than the curse we have watched transpire.
Kicking the can scenario only last so long as we observe this amplitude increase as we have been warned already
will ignite the effect we wait for. Its is already happening before there eyes but they are to dim to see it.
The gentle men also observing this aspect have there finger on throat of the patient as the Government
decrees its fitness from the monetary class deemed the best hope of the economy. Sad state of affairs
watching there central planning as the producing class is exterminated from a desease they are blind to
cure as John conveyed a mind averted to ideological damage.
Pointless diatribe we witness from those who dismiss the banal effects of time.
They arrogate themselve to ignore as Senaca warned and Cisero in mediation payed the ultimate price

http://www.prudentbear.com/index.php/th ... t_id=10309 Fundamentals lost for some time it appears.

[aedens]

http://mises.org/books/origins_of_money.pdf
Money has not been generated by law. In its origin it is a social, and not a state institution. Sanction by the authority of the state is a notion alien to it. On the other hand, however, by state recognition and state regulation, this social institution of money has been perfected and adjusted to the manifold and varying needs of an evolving commerce, just as customary rights have been perfected and adjusted by statute law. Treated originally by weight, like other commodities, the precious metals have by degrees attained as coins a shape by which their intrinsically high saleableness has experienced a material increase. The fixing of a coinage so as to include all grades of value (Wertstufen), and the establishment and maintenance of coined pieces so as to win public confidence and, as far as possible, to forestall risk concerning their genuineness, weight, and fineness, and above all the ensuring their circulation in general.

The difficulties experienced in the commerce and modes of payment of any country from the competing action of the several commodities serving as currency, and further the circumstance, that concurrent standards induce a manifold insecurity in trade, and render necessary various conversions of the circulating media, have led to the legal recognition of certain commodities as money (to legal standards). And where more than one commodity has been acquiesced in, or admitted, as the legal form of payment, law or some system of appraisement has fixed a definite ratio of value amongst them.

They arrogate themselve to ignore as Senaca warned and Cisero in mediation payed the ultimate price. Any Governement can see ripples on a pond.

http://www.prudentbear.com/index.php/th ... t_id=10309 Fundamentals lost for some time it appears.

I have no preference but sanity to policy from our Representative body of the people in a bent of mind to reason for the people.

More important details : http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/ ... BS20091113
http://www.cattlenetwork.com/NCGA--Good ... SOCIATIONS
http://www.aitegroup.com/reports/200911162.php

[aedens]

Black ICE

Floating storage:
Meanwhile, Jakob said, “Oil economics used to be that in a period of low demand, refineries would run until the onshore stocks would be filled up, then the contango would pressure the refinery margins, which would then limit refinery production until stocks start to draw. However, the total collapse in trade following the credit crisis at the end of 2008 and the zero interest rate policy of the US Federal Reserve has brought an additional and almost indefinite level of storage tanks through the use of ships as floating stocks. This means that refineries have been producing way over what should have been the balancing economics.”
Same thing we seen In circa ~1974 as feedstock compression. We filled anything that held liquid. Ask anyone in trucking transportation since even the out of business "compression" underground tanks where used also. Consumer Items also where gouged as compression economic mentality took hold and The forums convey what Nixon did on support issues. Basically query transportation and they moved half the product to market marked up 300 percent above already existing stock to gouge as we would call hedge today in context to energy costs. Fuel spiked as we where drowning in fuel and for you gal's how much did canning lids spike then. Ah, for many you were not even alive. Rinse and repeat.... Welcome to the seventy's
Energy prices:
The December contract for benchmark US light, sweet crudes advanced 24¢ to $79.14/bbl Nov. 17 on NYMEX. The January contract increased 19¢ to $79.72/bbl. On the US spot market, West Texas Intermediate at Cushing, Okla., was up 24¢ to $79.14/bbl. Heating oil for December delivery gained 2.65¢ to $2.06/gal on NYMEX. Reformulated blend stock for oxygenate blending (RBOB) for the same month increased 1.81¢ to $2/gal.
http://www.ogj.com/index/article-displa ... rude3.html
ICE, an online commodities and futures marketplace. It is outside the US and operates free from the constraints of US laws. The exchange was set up to facilitate "dark pool" trading in the commodities markets. Billions of dollars are being placed on oil futures contracts at the ICE and the beauty of this scam is that they NEVER take delivery, per se. They just ratchet up the price with leveraged speculation using your TARP money.

Private bankers got together, took over governments, and have set up a world government structure that they are now actively trying to transfer power from sovereign countries into the new government that they control (IMF, UN, World Bank, Central Banks). Cap & trade is an important part of their plan, they own the third world countries completely and these countries will not have the restrictions - wealth will be transfered from the US to their 3rd world countries. Remember the last 30 years was about northern and southern hemisperes on geopolitical facets and who that was and I will leave that for you to find out since I am not going to do all your work for you but remember what Mr. Eisenhower conveyed. Meanwhile, debt mine new consumers to save the World since these are tapped out here finally. The people of this country are the last to be conquered and have basically surrendered there bent of mind of liberty. One serf at a time now serf. Now buy this health package or you are an enemy of the State. The hour is late and they already own your grandchilden. Vote reason not party serfs. Wake up little children nap time is over. Decades of imbalances caused by debt and artificially low interest rates and you say why? So they can save your now collective myopic world’s ass. Who also had seen what happen to Russia in 1989 and why even before it fell? Query who that was, and really do you think for a second is was ever about the taxpayer, please…. These village idiots have done what their masters sent them to do for a price since of your very liberty is at risk from ignorance. For the lefttards who think the Gov will save your collective ass you’re going to find out when push comes to shove it will be you under the bus not them. Look around who pays the price.... Always the same since who is parted with his money? Even the ancients knew that. So shut up and fire them.
Today whenever you see statements like this “Have implications for the setting of climate change targets and the design of climate change policy.” You know you are too late to help them.

Cicero recognized that the end of the Republic was almost certain. He stated that "the Republic, the Senate, the law courts are mere ciphers and that not one of us has any constitutional position at all. In the season of this time you have abandoned reason and yourself.
After weeks of secretive drafting, Reid outlined the legislation to rank-and-file Democratic senators at a closed-door meeting.
When you all figure it out tha it is not about you but patronage to keep then in power building a ad hoc class of voters the fate is sealed for the currency and nation in context to spending. Ask any ex bloc citizen how they fared with centralized thinking. As they conveyed in lucid regard they pretended to pay us and we pretended to work. Lessons will be relearned in a generational context all over again and no we are not exempt from its gravity or to think it is different this time is a allusion unto hubris.

The market is dead, with only Cyborg algos trading amongst themselves, as is the norm lately. No reason to even comment on this. Nobody wants to sell courtesy of moral hazard, and nobody wants to buy courtesy of 100x P/E. Can we just call it a stalemate and all go home.
Sign's of the weather we see but not sign's of the times... http://research.stlouisfed.org/publicat ... 3/usfd.pdf

[aedens]

Venting:
Edward Pinto, a mortgage-industry consultant who was the chief credit officer at Fannie Mae in the late 1980s, argued in a WSJ op-ed essay Friday that “most agree that the housing bubble started in 1997.”
I asked Mr. Pinto why he chose 1997. He pointed to a chart of long-term home prices patched together by Robert Shiller, a Yale economist. The chart shows inflation-adjusted house prices starting to move up sharply in the late 1990s. ...
Tom Lawler, an independent economist who worked at Fannie Mae from 1984 to 2006, says few housing gurus think the bubble began as early as 1997. In his view, the bubble began around 2002. The collapse of the tech-stock bubble in the year 2000 prompted many people, searching for other types of investments, to focus on real estate.
Semantics, in the mid Seventy’s with the global bulldozing effects on agricultural productivity concepts to collapse locality markets here and aboard the trends are longer and deeper than we would like to or wish to realize. The here and now spot comments should transcend comments but collect data points on cultural inferences of rates of change in agrarian contexts. Namely in year 1900 to whatever we can infer amounts of supply since we have the framework anyway to convey how this effect we already see and the progress we consider positive since we have do have more people as a effect as Lord Acton commented in the view of history. There are no accidents but limitations imposed for control of amplitude which Mises alluded to in relationship to causation on host issues to logical conclusions. Basically to sum it up the current Liberal intent is a ratio of 25 percent agriculture worldwide and in North America we went from 90 percent on the farm to 10 percent on the farm to be bluntly brief. China is walking in that direction if we observe it or not with red wheat rust impeding and asserting various topical issues in the mid east gateways as we know it and is not without observation for thousands of years to crop characteristics that where know then also, and to be brief rotated for said relief from said affliction as buffer. Nothing new under the sun. Still a topical reality to pressure points today.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/174131- ... urce=yahoo