From Robert McHugh’s Research:
Based upon the five parameters noted above, here’s what I found: Confirmed
Hindenburg Omens are very rare. There have been only 43 confirmed Hindenburg
Omen signals over the past 32 years. May 31st, 2017’s is the 43rd. This is amazing when
you consider that during that time span, there were roughly 8,000 trading days. Of those
8,000 trading days where it was possible to generate a confirmed official Hindenburg
Omen, only 261 (3.26 percent) generated one, clustering into 43 confirmed potential
stock market crash signals. This is a very rare alignment, a rare but potentially dangerous
condition in the stock market.
If we define a crash as a 15% decline, of the previous 42 confirmed Hindenburg Omen
signals, 9 (21.4 percent) were followed by financial system threatening, life-as-we-know-it
threatening stock market crashes ( I included the Crash of August 2015 which saw a
14.79% plunge from the date of the H.O. observation because the actual drop from the
highs just after the H.O. was 15.28%). Four (9.5 percent) more were followed by stock
market selling panics (10% to 14.9% declines). Five more (11.9 percent) resulted in sharp
declines (8% to 9.9% drops). Six (14.3 percent) were followed by meaningful declines
(5% to 7.9%), eleven (26.2 percent) saw mild declines (2.0% to 4.9%), and seven (16.7
percent) were failures, with subsequent declines of 2.0% or less.
Put another way, there is a 21.4 percent probability that a stock market crash — the big one —
will occur after we get a confirmed (more than one in a cluster) Hindenburg Omen. There is a 30.9
percent probability that at least a panic sell-off will occur (a decline greater than 10
percent). There is a 42.8 percent probability that a sharp decline greater than 8.0 %
will occur, and there is a 57.1 percent probability that a stock market decline of at least
5 percent will occur. Only one out of roughly 6 times will this signal fail.
Financial topics
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Higgenbotham
- Posts: 7997
- Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm
Re: Financial topics
Some stats on Hindenburg Omens. The last paragraph has the summary I was looking for.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
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Higgenbotham
- Posts: 7997
- Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm
Re: Financial topics
John,
My immediate concern is that Trump is not delivering anything. That's the kind of thing that can cause stocks to move into weak hands, as appears to be happening this week. I think the fact Trump is not delivering anything while appearing more unstable will cause a lot of additional hand wringing over the weekend among the monied class. I think it was Mort Zuckerman who was fond of saying when the president is in trouble, the stock market is in trouble. To me, it depends on the president and how much tax cuts he has promised the corporations, etc., which directly impacts future earnings, etc.
My immediate concern is that Trump is not delivering anything. That's the kind of thing that can cause stocks to move into weak hands, as appears to be happening this week. I think the fact Trump is not delivering anything while appearing more unstable will cause a lot of additional hand wringing over the weekend among the monied class. I think it was Mort Zuckerman who was fond of saying when the president is in trouble, the stock market is in trouble. To me, it depends on the president and how much tax cuts he has promised the corporations, etc., which directly impacts future earnings, etc.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
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Higgenbotham
- Posts: 7997
- Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm
Re: Financial topics
SOC GEN is the big French bank.SOC GEN: A failure of Trump's tax cuts is the biggest 'black swan' risk in global markets
Business Insider Australia
Narayanan Somasundaram, Business Insider Australia
May 31, 2017, 12:23 AM
http://www.businessinsider.com/trump-ta ... ets-2017-5
Société Générale
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Société Générale S.A. is a French multinational banking and financial services company headquartered in Paris. The company is a universal bank and has divisions supporting French Networks, Global Transaction Banking, International Retail Banking, Financial services, Corporate and Investment Banking, Private Banking, Asset Management and Securities Services.
Société Générale is France's third largest bank by total assets,[3] sixth largest in Europe[4] or seventeenth by market capitalization.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
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Higgenbotham
- Posts: 7997
- Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm
Re: Financial topics
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... a-calendarTrump’s Massive Tax-Cut Plan Faces ‘Train Wreck’ of a Calendar
By Sahil Kapur
July 10, 2017, 3:00 AM CDT
Health care impasse looms; calls to work through August recess
“There’s a train wreck coming,” said G. William Hoagland, a senior vice president at the Bipartisan Policy Center in Washington and a former Republican staff director for the Senate Budget Committee. “I don’t see a tax bill in 2017 at all. Not at all,” Hoagland said. “Not comprehensive tax reform. No way.”
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
Re: Financial topics
John wrote: > That's not the point. Outside of Obamacare, Obama couldn't get
> anything done either. That's not something that triggers stock
> market crashes.
I agree that the "Trump bump" has enlarged the stock market bubble,Higgenbotham wrote: > It can matter this time because the huge rally since Trump got
> elected was predicated on the belief that corporate America would
> get all the goodies Trump promised them, and get them
> quickly.
but note that the S&P 500 P/E ratio is lower than it was a year ago.
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2 ... dc_h_usshl
If it's possible to predict when a stock market panic will occur, the
P/E ratio is more important than any political consideration.
Investors like you already know that Trump did nothing to cause the
bump, and they already know that Trump is going to get nothing done
this year, and they, like you, have already discounted it.
Re: Financial topics
http://johnhelmer.net/the-improper-asso ... tary-fund/
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/ ... 5_dow2.jpg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ownHbBfPRiY
“And the third angel followed them, saying with a loud voice, If any man worship the beast and his image, and receive his mark in his forehead, or in his hand, The same shall drink of the wine of the wrath of God, which is poured out without mixture into the cup of his indignation; and he shall be tormented with fire and brimstone in the presence of the holy angels, and in the presence of the Lamb.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/ ... 5_dow2.jpg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ownHbBfPRiY
“And the third angel followed them, saying with a loud voice, If any man worship the beast and his image, and receive his mark in his forehead, or in his hand, The same shall drink of the wine of the wrath of God, which is poured out without mixture into the cup of his indignation; and he shall be tormented with fire and brimstone in the presence of the holy angels, and in the presence of the Lamb.”
Re: Financial topics
https://beebom.com/google-alternatives/
Government has created a nauseatingly politically correct environment in which any honest person who is in touch with reality would have to become an actor and hide his disgust with such fascism; whereas, a psychopath is already a very good actor and doesn't care about reality or integrity and actually enjoys saying whatever manipulates others into believing him and rewarding him. Socialist government has therefore given a huge advantage to the psychopath in the business world — and blamed it on capitalism! The solution is not to give government more power over the business world, but to give it less. Naturally, such powerful people don't want the world thinking of them as sociopaths or psychopaths, so they are taking control of the narrative.
Therefore, don't be distracted by The Sociopath Psyop — it is another dead end. The Sociopath Psyop is another attempt by the psychopathic cronyist establishment to cause division and conflict and to misdirect.
The investigation methods used to come to the conclusion that the Russian Government led the hacks of the DNC, Clinton Campaign Chair John Podesta, and the DCCC were further called into question by a recent BuzzFeed report by Jason Leopold, who has developed a notable reputation from leading several non-partisan Freedom of Information Act lawsuits for investigative journalism purposes. On March 15 that the Department of Homeland Security released just two heavily redacted pages of unclassified information in response to an FOIA request for definitive evidence of Russian election interference allegations. Leopold wrote, “what the agency turned over to us and Ryan Shapiro, a PhD candidate at MIT and a research affiliate at Harvard University, is truly bizarre: a two-page intelligence assessment of the incident, dated Aug. 22, 2016, that contains information DHS culled from the internet. It’s all unclassified — yet DHS covered nearly everything in wide swaths of black ink. Why? Not because it would threaten national security, but because it would reveal the methods DHS uses to gather intelligence, methods that may amount to little more than using Google.
https://duckduckgo.com/?q=Groundwork+Er ... th+Startup
http://gdxforum.com/forum/search.php?ke ... sf=msgonly
It is important to understand when talking about progressives or socialists that the left-right paradigm is theater.
The root of the problem is that so many accept the illusion of legitimacy.
Both sides work for the same people.
http://ponerology.com
https://twitter.com/wikileaks/status/79 ... 3Fpage%3D1
Spiritual relationship is far more precious than physical. Physical relationship divorced from spiritual is body without soul. Gandhi
Government has created a nauseatingly politically correct environment in which any honest person who is in touch with reality would have to become an actor and hide his disgust with such fascism; whereas, a psychopath is already a very good actor and doesn't care about reality or integrity and actually enjoys saying whatever manipulates others into believing him and rewarding him. Socialist government has therefore given a huge advantage to the psychopath in the business world — and blamed it on capitalism! The solution is not to give government more power over the business world, but to give it less. Naturally, such powerful people don't want the world thinking of them as sociopaths or psychopaths, so they are taking control of the narrative.
Therefore, don't be distracted by The Sociopath Psyop — it is another dead end. The Sociopath Psyop is another attempt by the psychopathic cronyist establishment to cause division and conflict and to misdirect.
The investigation methods used to come to the conclusion that the Russian Government led the hacks of the DNC, Clinton Campaign Chair John Podesta, and the DCCC were further called into question by a recent BuzzFeed report by Jason Leopold, who has developed a notable reputation from leading several non-partisan Freedom of Information Act lawsuits for investigative journalism purposes. On March 15 that the Department of Homeland Security released just two heavily redacted pages of unclassified information in response to an FOIA request for definitive evidence of Russian election interference allegations. Leopold wrote, “what the agency turned over to us and Ryan Shapiro, a PhD candidate at MIT and a research affiliate at Harvard University, is truly bizarre: a two-page intelligence assessment of the incident, dated Aug. 22, 2016, that contains information DHS culled from the internet. It’s all unclassified — yet DHS covered nearly everything in wide swaths of black ink. Why? Not because it would threaten national security, but because it would reveal the methods DHS uses to gather intelligence, methods that may amount to little more than using Google.
https://duckduckgo.com/?q=Groundwork+Er ... th+Startup
http://gdxforum.com/forum/search.php?ke ... sf=msgonly
It is important to understand when talking about progressives or socialists that the left-right paradigm is theater.
The root of the problem is that so many accept the illusion of legitimacy.
Both sides work for the same people.
http://ponerology.com
https://twitter.com/wikileaks/status/79 ... 3Fpage%3D1
Spiritual relationship is far more precious than physical. Physical relationship divorced from spiritual is body without soul. Gandhi
Re: Financial topics
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/ ... _1800s.jpg
"The Nigerian market is getting into shape," said a trader. "The overhang has been reducing every month and the Indians, Americans and Brazilians have all been buying. The market has strengthened on lights and sweets across the Atlantic Basin."
Differentials for light sweet crude in Nigeria have mirrored the strength in the Mediterranean and North Sea in the past few weeks, with grades such as Qua Iboe rising to the highest levels of the year this week.
Qua Iboe was assessed at a $1/b premium to forward Dated Brent Thursday, its highest level since mid-December last year.
This is also being reflected on the oil futures market along with the bullish factors that include the steady drawdown in US crude stocks and a recent pledge by Saudi Arabia to limit exports to 6.6 million b/d in August.
There is a very narrow contango in the front two to three months of the ICE Brent curve but there is a brief backwardation in the back end amid ciphers of tightening fundamentals.
Europe's biggest refinery, Pernis, is currently "out of order", Shell said late Tuesday, adding that the power station where a fire started Saturday evening needs to be repaired before "the refinery can be rebooted step by step".
"The Nigerian market is getting into shape," said a trader. "The overhang has been reducing every month and the Indians, Americans and Brazilians have all been buying. The market has strengthened on lights and sweets across the Atlantic Basin."
Differentials for light sweet crude in Nigeria have mirrored the strength in the Mediterranean and North Sea in the past few weeks, with grades such as Qua Iboe rising to the highest levels of the year this week.
Qua Iboe was assessed at a $1/b premium to forward Dated Brent Thursday, its highest level since mid-December last year.
This is also being reflected on the oil futures market along with the bullish factors that include the steady drawdown in US crude stocks and a recent pledge by Saudi Arabia to limit exports to 6.6 million b/d in August.
There is a very narrow contango in the front two to three months of the ICE Brent curve but there is a brief backwardation in the back end amid ciphers of tightening fundamentals.
Europe's biggest refinery, Pernis, is currently "out of order", Shell said late Tuesday, adding that the power station where a fire started Saturday evening needs to be repaired before "the refinery can be rebooted step by step".
Re: Financial topics
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/05/top-hea ... llars.html
They will be stepping out of the opposite of the limousine soon.
They will be stepping out of the opposite of the limousine soon.
Re: Financial topics
Man is not the Captain of His Soul.
And speaking of hypocrisy, in the same memo from CEO Pichai, we read the the following:
... let me say that we strongly support the right of Googlers to express themselves, and much of what was in that memo is fair to debate, regardless of whether a vast majority of Googlers disagree with it.
... So to be clear again, many points raised in the memo — such as the portions criticizing Google’s trainings, questioning the role of ideology in the workplace, and debating whether programs for women and underserved groups are sufficiently open to all — are important topics. The author had a right to express their views on those topics — we encourage an environment in which people can do this and it remains our policy to not take action against anyone for prompting these discussions.
... there are co-workers who are questioning whether they can safely express their views in the workplace (especially those with a minority viewpoint). They too feel under threat, and that is also not OK. People must feel free to express dissent.
... and to be fired immediately after, especially if the "dissent" puts into question some of Google's more fundamental ideological tenets, such as those highlighted by Wikileaks which last year revealed "Google's "Strategic Plan" To Help Democrats Win The Election, Track Voters."
http://www.palantir.com
http://i.4cdn.org/pol/1502066051866.jpg
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-0 ... ve-culture
|google/rot/
And speaking of hypocrisy, in the same memo from CEO Pichai, we read the the following:
... let me say that we strongly support the right of Googlers to express themselves, and much of what was in that memo is fair to debate, regardless of whether a vast majority of Googlers disagree with it.
... So to be clear again, many points raised in the memo — such as the portions criticizing Google’s trainings, questioning the role of ideology in the workplace, and debating whether programs for women and underserved groups are sufficiently open to all — are important topics. The author had a right to express their views on those topics — we encourage an environment in which people can do this and it remains our policy to not take action against anyone for prompting these discussions.
... there are co-workers who are questioning whether they can safely express their views in the workplace (especially those with a minority viewpoint). They too feel under threat, and that is also not OK. People must feel free to express dissent.
... and to be fired immediately after, especially if the "dissent" puts into question some of Google's more fundamental ideological tenets, such as those highlighted by Wikileaks which last year revealed "Google's "Strategic Plan" To Help Democrats Win The Election, Track Voters."
http://www.palantir.com
http://i.4cdn.org/pol/1502066051866.jpg
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-0 ... ve-culture
|google/rot/
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