Financial topics

[Higgenbotham]

The events I have identified are:

1. Muslim invasion of Europe.
2. Increase in mortality rates (of women in the rural US).
3. Overthrow of political establishment in America.

The first two events only occur (or have occurred) during the onset of Dark Ages. The third can occur during a generational crisis period or during the onset of a dark age. But in this case, it is occurring with confidence in the political establishment being in single digits, so it has the markings of going hand in hand with the onset of a dark age.

[MarvyGuy]

they'll be reversed during the subsequent Recovery era

The recovery era is still too far off to know. If highly radiated from fallout, or if the infrastructure is catastrophically failed then there is a chance that the recovery will not look like the recovery that took place after WW2. Coupled with a highly integrated "on demand" delivery system for food stuffs plus sustained current food production fueled by the stored energy of hydrocarbons it might very well be a "dark age". Unless some radical advance toward sustainable energy is found to offset the calorific energy lost then the recovery period may be difficult indeed.

I suspect (but do not know for sure) that Dark Age references are towards empire collapse, or if you will the catastrophic collapse of a highly integrated system that requires a lot of energy to function properly. As the system intermediaries begin to take more and more the system becomes unstable and eventually collapses to a lower energy state. Any loss of hydrocarbon production without a subsequent energy replacement would make the fall rather more pronounced that what was seen before.

In terms of a worldwide Caliphate or similar system then you would also be looking at a spiritual dark age and perhaps that is a spiritual parallel of Mt 24:37-39

For as the few and obscure Prophecies concerning Christ’s first coming were for setting up the Christian religion, which all nations have since corrupted, so the many and clear Prophecies, concerning the things to be done at Christ’s second coming, are not only for predicting but also for effecting a recovery and re-establishment of the long-lost truth, and setting up a kingdom wherein dwells righteousness. The event will prove the Apocalypse, and this Prophecy, thus proved and understood, will open the old Prophets and all together will make known the true religion, and establish it Sir Issac Newton “Observations on the Prophecies of Daniel and the Apocalypse of St. John” (1733)

He gave this and the Prophecies of the Old Testaments, not to gratify men’s curiosities by enabling them to foreknow things, but that after they were fulfilled they might be interpreted by the event; and his own Providence, not the Interpreters, be then manifested thereby to the world. For the event of things predicted many ages before, will then be a convincing argument that the world is governed by providence. ibidem

[Higgenbotham]

Trump can't begin to turn America around until he quickly eliminates millions of finance and other criminals to make up for the failure to put criminals through the normal legal channels, which should have occurred during the past 8 years, and would have during a normal crisis period. But if he does that, it's just further evidence that the system is broken because our system doesn't allow for that, it only allows for a judicial process. That process has to be put into motion at the appropriate time. So I don't see how the US can be extricated out of the quicksand at this point with so many lost opportunities.

If elected, Trump is in the same spot Putin was in when the Soviet Union collapsed into its own Dark Age and the criminal oligarchs took over. Putin could execute a few as needed, toss a few in prison as needed, or neutralize them. It made for a weak recovery. But again, the US system doesn't allow for that, so it's hard to say America still exists if that is the only viable solution to eliminating the criminal banker and corporate parasites.

[MarvyGuy]

Per AnnB

The culture has degraded such that seeking and/or holding office, especially national-level office, is, in and of itself, proof that a given person is psychologically and morally unfit to hold public office.

I don’t support any candidate for President of the United States because THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA NO LONGER EXISTS. The United States WAS a Constitutional Republic. This monstrosity is in no way, shape or form a Republic, under the Constitution. It is a straight-up oligarchy. The country I was born in NO LONGER EXISTS.

Pretty strong stuff from our Modern Jean D'Arc but I fear all too true.

[John]

> 1. Muslim invasion of Europe.

There is no Muslim invasion of Europe. What is going on is a historic
migration such has occurred in every generational Crisis era,
including in WW II in Europe. A mass migration does not mean a new
Dark Age.

> 2. Increase in mortality rates (of women in the rural US).

Have you checked the Great Depression? I would assume that the
same thing happened to women in rural areas in the 1930s. (See
The Grapes of Wrath)

> 3. Overthrow of political establishment in America.

This is hardly new. Just 40 years ago, Richard Nixon was overthrown.
35 years ago, the Persian Empire collapsed. 25 years ago, the Soviet
Empire collapsed.

> The recovery era is still too far off to know. If highly radiated
> from fallout, or if the infrastructure is catastrophically failed
> then there is a chance that the recovery will not look like the
> recovery that took place after WW2. Coupled with a highly
> integrated "on demand" delivery system for food stuffs plus
> sustained current food production fueled by the stored energy of
> hydrocarbons it might very well be a "dark age". Unless some
> radical advance toward sustainable energy is found to offset the
> calorific energy lost then the recovery period may be difficult
> indeed.

There will still be plenty of oil and coal in the ground. I've
estimated that 3-4 billion people will die, but that will leave 3-4
billion left to rebuild the world, and they will do so.

[MarvyGuy]

There will still be plenty of oil and coal in the ground

Is true that. I believe a lot of the coal left is brown coal and the oil is getting technically more complex to extract and so it will require a high level technical competence to get at. At a minimum to restart systems will require the equivalent level of technical expertise to maintain this complex system that is in place. Things like welding, metallurgy, advanced computations (which do not require computers but someone smart enough for a slide rule). Will also require capital funding which is not as available today as it was back in the 40-60's when a lot of the initial advances we enjoy today took place as well as the basic infrastructure.

So it will certainly still be there to extract but will the remaining people be able to or will we face some extended period of rural existence before this is rediscovered? I certainly do not know what the long term will lead to but I have to admit from right here it is looking pretty dark minus some intervention.

Do not forget also John that here in the financial section I have discovered is not only finances but a free flow of thought back and forth on many other topics as well. I should say my experience so far is that there is concern for a collapse in the US way of life and dissolution from a Republic to some form of top down Totalitarian system. The parallels between other period is striking not in the sense of the crisis period but in the overthrow of democratic or monarchical systems as power is passed to a small group of individuals who will all have Dachas on the Black Sea.

[Higgenbotham]

Per AnnB

The culture has degraded such that seeking and/or holding office, especially national-level office, is, in and of itself, proof that a given person is psychologically and morally unfit to hold public office.

I don’t support any candidate for President of the United States because THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA NO LONGER EXISTS. The United States WAS a Constitutional Republic. This monstrosity is in no way, shape or form a Republic, under the Constitution. It is a straight-up oligarchy. The country I was born in NO LONGER EXISTS.

Pretty strong stuff from our Modern Jean D'Arc but I fear all too true.

I don't read AnnB, but this is exactly how I see it also.

> 1. Muslim invasion of Europe.

There is no Muslim invasion of Europe. What is going on is a historic
migration such has occurred in every generational Crisis era,
including in WW II in Europe. A mass migration does not mean a new
Dark Age.

A mass Muslim migration is always an invasion, by definition. Muslims don't migrate and assimilate, they invade, rape, kill, and install Sharia Law.

Life expectancy has never declined for any subgroup in America until it began happening in the 1980s.

Also, if 3-4 billion people die, that will be a dark age. World population declined 2-3% from 1929-1945. Previous dark ages cut population by 1/3 to 1/2, the same as your projection. It will take centuries to recover from that, if ever.

From December 3 and 4, 2011:

Looking at the scale of the raw numbers, the 1918 pandemic killed roughly 3% of the world population and WWII killed roughly 3% also. The bloody dictators in Europe and Asia killed a similar sized percentage of world population. This all happened over about a 50 year period. Despite this, world population continued to increase - there was no permanent reduction in population as occurred during the 14th Century.

The raw figures bring up an interesting observation, though. The more permanent population reduction in 14th Century Europe (defining 14th Century Europe as a region relatively or completely unconnected from Asia and the Americas) was approximately 10 times the temporary world population reductions in the 20th Century.

A permanent reduction in population over some time scale longer than, say, a saeculum seems to be characteristic of a Dark Age as opposed to a normal crisis period. Naturally, this is a case of arbitrarily defining something as opposed to something else and giving it a name.

So how could a scale of population reduction that is 10 times that of the prior saeculum occur? My thesis is that a Dark Age scale population reduction can only come about through large scale individual moral and institutional failure. This is harder to quantify, but my previous post describes what that looks like as opposed to typical crisis period failure.

Specifically, we can see that while the population of Europe fell by about 1/3 during the Dark Ages and the 14th Century, world population did not. But that also tells us that the upcoming Dark Age, crisis, or whatever we want to call it will be exceptionally severe and unprecedented on a worldwide scale if John and I are right about the worldwide kill rate.

Oil and coal in the ground does not equate to future oil and coal extracted. Gail Tverberg covers this very well.

[MarvyGuy]

Muslims don't migrate and assimilate

I saw a post back on ZH some time ago where someone was posting statistics on muslim by percentage of the population. Initially low level operate peacefully in the system until a value of around 40% when agitation for implementation is Sharia becomes the dominant pattern. I have no clue if this is correct or not. I have never studied the process of assimilation of previous non Muslim cultures. I do think though that crisis periods land is acquired and is not relented unless successful force of arms compels it. Someone who equates islam with a religion would not see this as a problem but for the Christian it is nothing short of catastrophic.

It is very hard to easily research today topics like Vlad III, Prince of Wallachia (1431–1476/77), as the Wikipedia excerpts are heavily modified to remove any references that demean the Ottomans. But it is at least discernible that Christianity came together at various periods to defend their land and way of life else we would not be having this particular conversation.

History will be kind to me for I intend to write it. Winston Churchill

Only once Brooks is Gartmaned, will it be safe to go long the USD again, a move which will also unleash the next leg lower in crude, and thanks to China's promptly response, global stock markets too.

Such a negative interest rate situation is currently playing out in Europe as the ECB adopted a NIRP, which drove yields on many money market instruments in Europe to below zero. Europe’s largest money market funds are taking action. One mechanism to pass on the costs to fund holders allows the funds to reduce the number of shares its investors hold but leave the net asset value constant. For shareholders this is similar to the previous example where you deposit $100 in your bank and see your deposit shrink to $98 over time. We suspect other legal, but deceiving, approaches will be employed to enable money market funds to keep their net asset values constant despite negative returns. Money market funds are not a charity. They will find a way to pass on the costs of negative yields on....Years of policy designed to encourage spending and discourage savings is likely reaching the end game; the point where those exhibiting prudence must be punished to keep the game going.

Ps 27
4 One thing I ask from the Lord, this only do I seek:
that I may dwell in the house of the Lord all the days of my life,
to gaze on the beauty of the Lord and to seek him in his temple.
5 For in the day of trouble he will keep me safe in his dwelling;
he will hide me in the shelter of his sacred tent and set me high upon a rock.
6 Then my head will be exalted above the enemies who surround me;
at his sacred tent I will sacrifice with shouts of joy; I will sing and make music to the Lord.

[Higgenbotham]

Special report: Inside Muslim majority neighborhoods of Malmo, Sweden

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cWSMURYM7bA

This alternative journalist interviewed Muslims in Malmo, Sweden and some discussed their intentions. One young man, the son of a Muslim immigrant, who was born in Sweden said he would like to see Sharia law in Sweden once the Muslims get to be a larger share of the population. He was quite open about this.

That part of the report starts at about 13:20.

[John]

> A mass Muslim migration is always an invasion, by
> definition. Muslims don't migrate and assimilate, they invade,
> rape, kill, and install Sharia Law.

There's no such definition. These conclusions are absurd. There are
500 million Europeans. The "mass migration" is less that 1%, far less
than the 40% supposedly necessary to impose Sharia law. I doubt that
there are even enough jihadists to install Sharia law in Malmo Sweden.