Thanks, your comments are appreciated. --- Warning -- As you probably know there are problems with thinking out side the box. Thinking out side the box makes you a problem for others, because your ideas can disturb their perception of "reality" which can lead to all kinds of consequences for the thinker.-- But, once you have crawled out you can't crawl back in. As I am sure John can attest to. This kind of thinking can be considered by others to be crazy or unconnected to "reality" or even "dangerous". However this kind of thinking can get you closer to the "truth" then you may even want to think.
Aedens has used the metaphor of the "Red Queen" from Lewis Carroll's "Through the Looking Glass" where every thing is twisted, up side down, backwards, etc.in relation to today's events. Today, more and more things are looking like something from the "Red Queen". As an example, In the early 1980's I was happy to get real estate loan for the "bargain" rate of 18%. If someone would have told me then that there will come a time where one could get a real estate loan for a negative rate, essentially the bank paying me to buy real estate, I and most others would have said that's impossible that is nuts. Yet today in Denmark you can. --- Straight out of "Through the Looking Glass"
Out of box thinkers can have a major impact on society. If you are familiar with the biography of Steve Jobs his actions and perceptions of "reality" were so "odd" that he could have been committed to a mental institution.
Another possible example of an out of the box thinker is a watercolor painter of still lifes and street scenes, who was quite good. Watercolor painting is actually quite difficult because the painter is building up color on a white background and requires perception of the scene and the ability to convert what is seen using the white of the paper and washes of transparent pigments to capture the feeling of the image. This requires "seeing" and not "looking", as well as creativity. He was unhappy with the direction of this occupation (not enough income ) and so chose another "occupation". I am sure you are all familiar with his other "occupation". One of his works an 8 1/2 inches by 11 inches recently sold at auction for $161,000 a respectable price. The artist's name - Adolf Hitler --
http://www.newsweek.com/watercolor-pain ... 000-286414
2-Feb-15 World View -- Washington joins the world in explosive spending splurge
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NoOneImportant
Re: 2-Feb-15 World View -- Washington joins the world in explosive spending splurge
Gerald wrote:
Always something interesting Gerald. Thinking outside-the-box is always difficult. Not just for those who have forced themselves to seek ideas outside of the "norm." More times than not, all they get for their pain and effort are strange looks -- those on the receiving end are often unprepared to receive the unusual, and/or the extraordinary. As you observe, the common response is to attack the messenger.
Additionally Gerald wrote:
It's interesting to note that Hitler was refused entry into the prestigious Vienna Academy of Fine Art not just once, but twice. How different the world might have been had Hitler gained entry. So, were we inclined, we might make the case and exonerate Hitler for all the misery he wrought; in fact we might place the blame where it is rightly deserved, and plainly belongs: upon the Vienna Academy of Fine Arts. As the Vienna Academy of Fine Arts is clearly to blame, and responsible for WW-II because of their poor art judgment, as exemplified by Gerald's illustration of one of Hitler's paintings being sold for 161K (come-on, it's a joke, lighten up).
And so, Gerald wrote some more:
Gerald, your observations regarding interest rates in the early 80s brought to mind a bit of contemplation I went though when I was fraught with angst during that period of day-trading. Spent a lot of time trying to figure out why the markets exhibit such a herd mentality, and why, in the short term, markets will simply ignore basic attributes of quality, and merit. Over time, I finally came to a few conclusions: 1.) I had conditioned myself to believe that things will always be as they have been in the immediate past; thus if markets are rising -- the mentality becomes that they will go up forever -- or if falling they will fall to zero; this belief is manifest in spite of the fact that I cognitively understand the logical fallacy of that belief. Nothing goes up forever but things do, however, sometimes in fact go to zero (gotta be especially careful of them; if dumb enough to buy any of them initially, I would advise: don't adopt a buy-and-hold strategy; ya'd like to get rid of them early 
). 2.) Man can't accurately extrapolate when confronted by non-linearly varying conditions; he (man) always errs dramatically in his estimates. The difficulty is that news outlets, and people routinely indicate market performances in linear terms thus re-enforcing the belief in a linear market model, e.g. percent moves up or down. In point of fact, markets move non-linearly in fits and starts (the market terminology for quasi-instantaneous price moves is gap up/down). 3.) The erroneous belief that because I am doing the trading from my PC -- a PC that is sitting right in front of me -- is that I can respond quickly, and "get out" before any major damage is done (see the terms gap up, and gap down in #2 above) . 4.) The fallacy that things are inherently worth what you pay for them -- the fact is that all value is perceived; as such all prices are dramatically subject to change. That's how the same ounce of gold may be valued at $35 per oz. in 1972, and $1233 in 2015. The true mass fantasy -- to borrow Gerald's terminology: "Through the Looking Glass" -- is that the 1972 dollar is the same dollar as the 2015 dollar, even if you actually happen to have a 1972 dollar (both of which, by design, look quite similar so as to re-enforce the delusional "real" fantasy that the dollar has stability).
Thanks, your comments are appreciated. --- Warning -- As you probably know there are problems with thinking out side the box. Thinking out side the box makes you a problem for others, because your ideas can disturb their perception of "reality" which can lead to all kinds of consequences for the thinker.-- But, once you have crawled out you can't crawl back in. As I am sure John can attest to. This kind of thinking can be considered by others to be crazy or unconnected to "reality" or even "dangerous". However this kind of thinking can get you closer to the "truth" then you may even want to think.
Always something interesting Gerald. Thinking outside-the-box is always difficult. Not just for those who have forced themselves to seek ideas outside of the "norm." More times than not, all they get for their pain and effort are strange looks -- those on the receiving end are often unprepared to receive the unusual, and/or the extraordinary. As you observe, the common response is to attack the messenger.
Additionally Gerald wrote:
Another possible example of an out of the box thinker is a watercolor painter of still lifes and street scenes, who was quite good. Watercolor painting is actually quite difficult because the painter is building up color on a white background and requires perception of the scene and the ability to convert what is seen using the white of the paper and washes of transparent pigments to capture the feeling of the image. This requires "seeing" and not "looking", as well as creativity. He was unhappy with the direction of this occupation (not enough income ) and so chose another "occupation". I am sure you are all familiar with his other "occupation". One of his works an 8 1/2 inches by 11 inches recently sold at auction for $161,000 a respectable price. The artist's name - Adolf Hitler --
It's interesting to note that Hitler was refused entry into the prestigious Vienna Academy of Fine Art not just once, but twice. How different the world might have been had Hitler gained entry. So, were we inclined, we might make the case and exonerate Hitler for all the misery he wrought; in fact we might place the blame where it is rightly deserved, and plainly belongs: upon the Vienna Academy of Fine Arts. As the Vienna Academy of Fine Arts is clearly to blame, and responsible for WW-II because of their poor art judgment, as exemplified by Gerald's illustration of one of Hitler's paintings being sold for 161K (come-on, it's a joke, lighten up).
And so, Gerald wrote some more:
Made my living day-trading technology companies for 4 or 5 years. Talk about anxiety.... In the early 1980's I was happy to get real estate loan for the "bargain" rate of 18%. If someone would have told me then that there will come a time where one could get a real estate loan for a negative rate, essentially the bank paying me to buy real estate, I and most others would have said that's impossible that is nuts. Yet today in Denmark you can...
Gerald, your observations regarding interest rates in the early 80s brought to mind a bit of contemplation I went though when I was fraught with angst during that period of day-trading. Spent a lot of time trying to figure out why the markets exhibit such a herd mentality, and why, in the short term, markets will simply ignore basic attributes of quality, and merit. Over time, I finally came to a few conclusions: 1.) I had conditioned myself to believe that things will always be as they have been in the immediate past; thus if markets are rising -- the mentality becomes that they will go up forever -- or if falling they will fall to zero; this belief is manifest in spite of the fact that I cognitively understand the logical fallacy of that belief. Nothing goes up forever but things do, however, sometimes in fact go to zero (gotta be especially careful of them; if dumb enough to buy any of them initially, I would advise: don't adopt a buy-and-hold strategy; ya'd like to get rid of them early ). 2.) Man can't accurately extrapolate when confronted by non-linearly varying conditions; he (man) always errs dramatically in his estimates. The difficulty is that news outlets, and people routinely indicate market performances in linear terms thus re-enforcing the belief in a linear market model, e.g. percent moves up or down. In point of fact, markets move non-linearly in fits and starts (the market terminology for quasi-instantaneous price moves is gap up/down). 3.) The erroneous belief that because I am doing the trading from my PC -- a PC that is sitting right in front of me -- is that I can respond quickly, and "get out" before any major damage is done (see the terms gap up, and gap down in #2 above) . 4.) The fallacy that things are inherently worth what you pay for them -- the fact is that all value is perceived; as such all prices are dramatically subject to change. That's how the same ounce of gold may be valued at $35 per oz. in 1972, and $1233 in 2015. The true mass fantasy -- to borrow Gerald's terminology: "Through the Looking Glass" -- is that the 1972 dollar is the same dollar as the 2015 dollar, even if you actually happen to have a 1972 dollar (both of which, by design, look quite similar so as to re-enforce the delusional "real" fantasy that the dollar has stability).Who is online
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