9-Jul-14 World View -- Mideast war or peace? It all depends

[Guest]

I think the Muslims are going to attain much of their goals because no one is going to stand against them beyond a half-hearted try.

When the Muslims migrate into Europe and make lots of babies, they really have a good chance of attaining much of their goals.

When Muslims fire un-guided missiles at Israel and Israel replies with drones firing very precise anti-tank missiles, that take out exactly which buildings they want, I don't see Muslims winning. It may take order of 1,000 Israelis to operate these drones that 2 million Arabs can not defend against. I think that no Israelis have been killed so far. Numbers are not that important in the current fight. Israel has to stand against them whole heartedly because they are at risk of getting wiped out. Israel is surrounded, they can not retreat.

Muslims don't need nuclear bombs-we have the children's bomb. A famous Libyan said that over a decade ago. ( Can you name him? ) I think he was right. Whenever I hear the pro-Israeli crowd banging on their chests-I sense fear. Hide behind technology, brutality, and rhetoric-anything but a just peace. At the roots of Israeli brutality is the fear that they will end up being treated as badly as they the Palestinians.

Muslims have shown themselves to be as reasonable (or unreasonable) as any Christian or Jew. The Muslim Moors tolerated Jews in Spain, and the Turkish Muslims took them in when they were expelled en masse from Spain by Christians. Lying and pretending that genocide is the only thing Muslims understand is beyond ignorant; it's wildly dangerous and self-defeating. What some here are saying is that genocide is necessary. That the "good guys" , that is the Jews and Christians, have no choice but to commit genocide. Yeah, right. What hypocrisy.

[vincecate]

The fact that the military government calls the Muslim Brotherhood a
terrorist organization does not change the fact that something like
30% of the population belong to MB, and so sentiment towards Israel
could change overnight.

If the Muslim Brotherhood got back in power they might join with Hamas against Israel.

[vincecate]

In 2009 deaths were 9 Israelis and over 1,000 Palestinians
In 2012 deaths were 6 Israelis and 167 Palestinians.
In 2014 so far 0 Israelis and 120+ Palestinians.

Bomb shelters and Iron Dome make Israel rather safe. They protect the population centers and there stop 90% of incoming missiles. In remote areas the odds that an unguided missile kills someone are low. Drones are trying to blow up anyplace launching missiles. So far the air raid warnings and people getting to bomb shelters have meant that what did get through did not kill anyone.

http://edition.cnn.com/2014/07/11/opini ... ?hpt=hp_c1

If Arabs sent in airplanes to bomb Israel then probably the Iron Dome would shoot down around 90% of the airplanes in each wave of planes. The Israeli planes would probably take care of the rest. Each Arab flight would be a suicide mission and the Arabs soon would run out of planes and Pilots. With airplanes the Israelis would have more time to get to bomb shelters.

I am guessing that nearly everything Israel is doing in Gaza is with drones, so they may not even be risking Israeli lives.

Over time the number of Palestinian missiles will go down as they started with a finite number and Egypt has closed the tunnels that might let them bring in more. Also, Israel is doing their best to blow up anyplace that has missiles. So the 100 per day will drop off and the odds of Israeli deaths will go down.

Israel's position is that if the Palestinians stop firing rockets then they will stop. It is a very reasonable position. Eventually the Palistinians will take the deal.

Have to expect that the area protected by the Iron Dome is increasing as they keep adding to the system. Also have to expect that they will improve the system so that the 90% hit rate will increase as well.

With the Iron Dome Israel has guaranteed that they have Air Superiority over Israel. A ground war without Air Superiority would not go well for the Arabs. A bunch of Israeli drones with anti-tank missiles shooting up Arab tanks.

[Guest]

And what if the Israelis roll into Gaza and kill thousands of Palestinians in Gaza? Will Iron Dome protect Jews in Europe? If the Israelis declare (de facto) open season on Palestinian civilians, whose to say that that (Jewish) civilian deaths won't spread to the streets of Europe? The Israelis have been able to get away with a lot, but times have changed. Keep pushing. Keep pushing.

[NoOneImportant]

There are Muslims in Europe also. What the three murdered children have shown is: if murder is the order of the day, it will be the order of the day for Jews, and Muslims, not just Jews.

[vincecate]

And what if the Israelis roll into Gaza and kill thousands of Palestinians in Gaza?

Why would they do that? If they keep using drones with anti-tank weapons the number of missiles fired out of Gaza will decrease. They can eventualy get to their goal of stopping the missiles this way. Why would they risk Israeli lives in a ground operation? If there were lots of Israelis getting killed they might rush into a ground war, but what is the hurry now?

[Guest]

There are Muslims in Europe also. What the three murdered children have shown is: if murder is the order of the day, it will be the order of the day for Jews, and Muslims, not just Jews.

Like I said: keep pushing.

[vincecate]

Israel added an 8th battery to the Iron Dome today. Got to expect this Iron Dome will have the full support of Israeli voters from here on out.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/ ... JP20140712

[vincecate]

This article talks about how normally there would be a lot of international pressure against Israel and this time there is not, quotes below. One of the comments was, "82 people were shot in Chicago last weekend.". Hum.

-- Vince


The war-wrecked region

Officials and diplomats are exhausted, spread thin, and focused on seemingly bigger problems, as Syria's civil war grinds on and ISIS continues marauding across Iraq.

A Groundhog Day Syndrome

It's surreal to think that just nine weeks ago the deadline for Israeli and Palestinian negotiators to produce an outline for a comprehensive peace agreement passed, fruitlessly, and the American-brokered peace process collapsed. Now Israel and Hamas are battling for the third time in less than six years, in a conflict that more or less resembles the two previous ones.

The isolation of Hamas

In late 2012, the last time Israel and Hamas had more than just their conventional exchange of fire, the landscape looked much different. Hamas had an ally in Egypt President Mohamed Morsi, who hailed from the more sympathetic Muslim Brotherhood. Egypt even mediated the ceasefire that ended that round of hostilities between Israel and Hamas. With Morsi deposed and with military ruler pushing to keep Islamists and the Muslim Brotherhood at the margins, Hamas doesn't have a neighbor to turn to. Moreover, Egypt actually seems disinterested in getting involved at all.

Hamas has also lost Iran's patronage, with whom it split last year over Hamas' criticism of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad and his attacks on Sunni Muslims in the Syrian civil war. Iran remains as one of Assad's few friends.

http://www.thewire.com/global/2014/07/i ... qus_thread

[John]

> Muslims don't need nuclear bombs-we have the children's bomb. A
> famous Libyan said that over a decade ago. ( Can you name him? )

What's the children's bomb?