Financial topics

[Higgenbotham]

At the prior 2 short term highs (June 9 and 23) the AD Line topped with the market but last week the AD Line turned over on Tuesday ahead of the market averages. The cumulative AD Line is the cumulative sum of daily NYSE advancers minus decliners.

NYAD2.png (8.31 KiB) Viewed 3062 times

[Higgenbotham]

from the zero hedge comment section http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-0 ... restimated

Sun, 07/06/2014 - 18:27 | 4929906Sudden Debt

The fact that the dow is now so high.... Without any serious fundamentals... Tells me we'll see dow 34000 before we see Dow 13000

It makes no sence but so is the current valuation and the Fed will keep on printing and will even increase it.

The dow is a representation of inflation and i think in that way, it's priced right for the near future when reality will sink in.

When they drop de dollar for example, the dow will be at 200k. Sure the economy will be in the craphouse but it's not like it's linked.

In 2009 the debate right here on this forum was whether the Dow would get to 100 or 1000. Now people are debating whether it will get to 24K, 56K or 200K, stuff like that. Everyone thinks Hussman is a turd and Prechter is a joke, but Hussman actually makes sense now. His log periodic bubble chart in January made no sense to me but the graph in the link seems right and he points out Warren Buffett uses that method to determine when stocks are overpriced. Buffett has a lot of stock to sell; is the peanut gallery at zero hedge going to buy it all?

[Higgenbotham]

Warren Buffett uses that method to determine when stocks are overpriced.

That said, the most reliable measures actually project negative returns, but then, the most reliable measures are those that adjust most fully for cyclical variations in profit margins, and we are continually reminded that this time is different. The ratio of market capitalization to GDP, which Warren Buffett (correctly) observed in a 2001 Fortune interview is “probably the single best measure of where valuations stand at any given moment” is now about 150% (not just 50%) above its pre-bubble norm, even imputing a rebound in Q2 GDP growth. Of course, Buffett also wrote "A group of lemmings looks like a pack of individualists compared with Wall Street when it gets a concept in its teeth" - which may explain why Wall Street seems so entranced with the concept of QE instead of actually doing the math. The ratio of market capitalization to GDP, presented below on an inverted scale, is beyond every point in history except for the final quarter of 1999 and the first two quarters of 2000.

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc140707.htm

[aedens]

h we are simply seeing offsets and information arbiters as always narrowed and thinned out would be accurate also. Noted mid to late june the bull needs fuel to continue and, as in recent days many many bears were stopped, a move down would attract short interest again. I would suggest latency of effect and plenty of fuel since we seen the fuel has been what seen coming. All debt and leverage has been eliminated over the last month on my part to beta considerations.
As for me I am totally light switched and unwound. EVV is a simple example and moodys called them out. I sold before the new leverage they imposed in that book. It was my last paper tiger to hold. Very very early we noted stocks are for rent. If the lights do not come on then I only lost equity position in relationship to currency. I am spread into vnr, qre, line, and a few others also. As we know and forumed, early is wrong and we are a few weeks spread out on effects of observations. The option pits are a mess IMO and we have plenty of facts on it seen here for some time as others have seen also. Fight another day, I consider the window is getting narrow as we consider. Going into the last half I have a vast risk aversion view since why consider issues we have not deemed sane.


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-0 ... in-6-years

not a box... its a ....

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-0 ... htmare-fed of course they seen it sooner than our indications
on products.

[Higgenbotham]

September E-mini S&Ps (ESU14 -0.05%) this morning are down -0.16% and European stocks are down -0.32% after German May industrial production unexpectedly declined for a third straight month. Also, IMF Managing Director Lagarde hinted that it may cut its global growth forecasts, saying investment is still weak and that risks remain in the U.S. even as its recovery accelerates.

http://www.barchart.com/newsletters/usmorningcall#ovdev

Lagarde speaks and markets fall. Maybe this is what people are looking for.

[aedens]

Consider the deeper end of the pool also h as we noted around the time of conduits.

http://vanguardinstitutionalblog.com/20 ... olatility/

Also when vxx bottums what is worth going forward for offsets.

thread context drill down: http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php ... its#p10684

addition thought we seen then Sun Nov 13, 2011 12:39 am and...

I will check later the tech break I noted of the breakdown.
If I remember off hand it was a 11 percent leakage I noted. Sat Oct 29, 2011 7:39 am

it was ~14.x %
http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php ... 011#p10675
The so called buffer accounts or active to suffice may temper this going forward.

http://finviz.com/

NAME LAST CHNG % CHNG
# LTS 3.40 -0.10 -2.86

Ladenburg Thalmann Financial Services Inc. (NYSE MKT: LTS; LTS PrA) today confirmed the third quarter 2014 monthly cash dividends for its 8.00% Series A Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock. The $0.1667 per share dividends are payable as follows:

July 15, 2014 July 28, 2014
August 15, 2014 August 28, 2014
September 15, 2014 September 29, 2014

[Higgenbotham]

Money velocity is falling as the Fed withdraws from QE. John has hit that point, though I am not sure if it is purely deflationary or if the economy grinds to a halt (velocity goes to zero instead of a smaller number in other words). The High Priests and Priestesses see it, and in their desperation they will go back to talking about "shovel ready" jobs, 5 years too late.

Why is money velocity falling faster as the Fed withdraws QE? "In theory" this should not be happening. Could be that the policy has failed. Jobs are a lagging indicator. Lots of part time jobs.

fredgraph2.jpg (22.19 KiB) Viewed 3021 times

fredgraph.jpg (23.49 KiB) Viewed 3021 times

[aedens]

shell shock and cya from guvvy http://ourfiniteworld.com/2014/06/10/ie ... -is-wrong/

the trend is clear on intent and it appears states will be consumed since no thought has been noted for decades
on keeping up appearances.

[vincecate]

Money velocity is falling as the Fed withdraws from QE.

They are calculating money velocity after figuring out GNP and money supply. But to figure out real GNP you need a deflator or inflation level. So we will see inflation first, then later we will get reports of money velocity going up.

[aedens]

I agree vin as we watched the ngdp as before. The Sat Oct 29, 2011 7:39 am snap shot.
Nothing new under the Sun...