Financial topics

[aedens]

This thought map is in direct context to the 1983 work around on the cci acounts so its contained and as they note transitory.
Somebody had to absorb the shock. We covered that here. Rubin based the bonus on the book opened. The CCI was the clean up crew
of the designer gutted sheep. "The mark" part of the plan H and unfolded also further as CRA now the ACA for the no man status of estate.
The Senate has indeed hurt us deeply with this current and pointless rhetoric. These ambitious men were not naive but they were overconfident about their
ability to manipulate. Like the Queen said, how could you not see this. As noted no one is concerned about defense because frankly we do have one any more since
we have proven beyond hope we are subjects to these connivance of affairs.

Like most Americans, I refuse to be damned by anybody's world-classification of it, such as "capitalism," "plutocracy," "proletariat" or "middle class," or any other, or to any
kind of compartment that is based on the assumption of some group dominating somebody else. Hoover was correct and we are drowning in assholes and fishheads.

http://www.hooverassociation.org/hoover ... hapter.php

Encapsulated theft by design. I see no party worth its salt today and even less to consider lately.

[at99sy]

Interesting article worth OCRing and pasting in full, Higgie:

I'm noticing some resemblance to the 1930 rebound top after the 1929 crash. If so, the market is as high as it will get. The 9 bars between the (first two) red lines are approximately the same pattern as the last 9 bars on the S&P 500. This is probably the type of pattern Morrow would be looking for.

A few months ago I had mentioned that the time between the tops of the Tulip Mania and the South Sea Bubble was 83.5 years. I had thought that ideally this top would be 83.5 years from the 1929 top, or March 2013. Chris Carolan once mentioned that he thought the ideal location of the roaring 20's top would have been the Spring of 1930, I think based on the 29 year cycle from 1901. Not sure about that but it seems to stick in my mind based on an interview on Wall Street Uncut. Anyway, the market is making a similar pattern to the 1930 top 83.25 years from the that top.

H I don't see how the historical charts can be related to our modern situation. Both TM and SSB, and the '29 Crash events were lacking what the Treasury and Fed have been doing this time around. That is supplying unlimited free money to the TBTF entities with no real indication that they will shut the tap off at all.
As long as they keep piling wood on the fire in ever increasing amounts and frequencies it will continue to grow.
I see the 99% getting squeezed more each day. The collapse will come from the people not the TBTF. As the police state becomes more oppressive and heavy handed people will shut it down aggressively like in Libya and Tunisia but they will probably start peacefully as in Egypt. As food becomes more and more expensive and the statist's do more to take and do so freely....... done.
Cheers
SY

[Higgenbotham]

The collapse will come from the people not the TBTF.

Today will be a good test of all the stock market theories.

ADP and GDP were "better than expected" this morning. Oil and copper are up and bonds are being sold. Meanwhile, the stock index futures are moving up and down around unchanged.

If the model for the collapse of the stock market that works across all eras independent of fundamentals is "vibrational analysis" the stock market will refuse to follow this "good news" today. That's provided I've picked up the type of pattern that Morrow would be looking at. He said a few days back that the stock market is within days of a bear market starting but nothing more specific than that. I think he is going to be right. The market has stopped moving on Ben's promises and the billions per week isn't moving it either. If Ben promises a continuation today as seems likely, the shocker would be seeing the market go down on that.

[aedens]

Peak to peak observations. things should relax on many topics. commodity's will slip somewhat. We trend many issues here so remember the composite overlays. As we noted also many sponsored
studies have been errant and unmasked as for what they truly are, Cui bono

The collapse will come from the people Yes this nominal wage issue is very telling of the wasting process. NAFTA was a crushing event of intent to the cultural bull dozing effects trended here
also. As we noted the peak earnings of corporate to the actual ratio to employed, will as we already anticipated engage slowly. This has been noted in the forums and much damage has been untouched as we noted on numerous levels of interpretation.

As Hampson notes If the peak is still ahead later this year then we may see global temperature hitting extremes and more geopolitical trouble, together with a speculative peak. All three could push up commodities in a late cyclical outperformance into 2014 with bonds already having topped and stocks topping this mid-year. In this scenario I would expect an inflationary spike to help tip the global economy into subsequent recession.

I agree and anticipated August 6th as peak and mid to late 2015 the true fulcrum point on many effects. IMO
I still consider circa 1963 the initial tipping point to the current political virus running its course.
For those on a longer time line the sign of the fish as the earlier link provided incite.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v0nbkBRc8XE

[Higgenbotham]

After all the good news was in for the day and the Fed gave the market everything it wanted, there was a late day selloff back to about unchanged. It didn't give the 1930 signal by closing down substantially but, then again, the Fed gave it all it had and the market couldn't hold a gain after touching an all time high earlier today. Meanwhile, crude is up $3 from its Tuesday low at $105.63 tonight, showing how QE can eventually crush the world economy as the inflation goes into energy and other raw materials. This has been happening for some time as we noted from the Sanford Bernstein report which showed oil extraction costs increasing at double digit percentages.
"Sanford C. Bernstein found an “unprecedented” spike in the US oil marginal cost last year, jumping to $114 a barrel, up from $89 in 2011."
"The full cost of producing new oil for the 50 largest publicly traded oil companies in the world is $92 a barrel according to Bernstein Research. In fact, the cost of producing the marginal new barrel of oil has been rising at 14 percent per year since 2001, Bernstein says."
Bernanke has built a huge permanent cost structure into energy production without the wage income to support it. The more money he has pumped in, the faster oil production costs have risen and the faster income has fallen in proportion to energy costs. Perhaps today we are seeing the long term consequences of that come home to roost in the stock market or perhaps it will wait just a bit longer.

[at99sy]

"Sanford C. Bernstein found an “unprecedented” spike in the US oil marginal cost last year, jumping to $114 a barrel, up from $89 in 2011."
"The full cost of producing new oil for the 50 largest publicly traded oil companies in the world is $92 a barrel according to Bernstein Research. In fact, the cost of producing the marginal new barrel of oil has been rising at 14 percent per year since 2001, Bernstein says."

Oil companies have not even tried to control their MC of extraction. They are spending huge sums to get the infrastructure in place and the new fields operational.
In the Dakotas, non-skilled laborers are making bank, and anyone with skills is killing it. I also question how much profit is factored into the extraction and operating costs before they even get it out of the ground? The biggest expense is getting the fields up and running then costs decrease significantly. Profits escalate from that point obviously.

cheers
sy

[Higgenbotham]

Today crude is bumping up on $108. It's interesting to take a look at the peak crude price from 2011 (first chart). In 2011, crude peaked the same day as the stock market. The last barrel of crude produced today may be costing $30 more than it did in 2011, maybe even more. Oil producers need to be paid more per barrel than they did in 2011, yet the consumer probably can't afford to pay more than in 2011.

Gasoline prices are almost certainly going to have to rise over the next few weeks (second chart). If the consumer buys less gasoline at the higher prices that gasoline must go to in order to be consistent with $108 oil, then crude production is going to have to be curtailed. With all the QE going into the economy, together with the cost pressures that already exist, crude is on a path to move higher than $108 over the next days, perhaps substantially higher.

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GASOLINE AND CRUDE.gif (23.61 KiB) Viewed 4446 times

[Higgenbotham]

I agree and anticipated August 6th as peak.

The correlation I did above with oil in 2011 would put it in that area, although it might work better to take the simple aproach. Peak to peak from February 18, 2011 to May 2, 2011 was 49 trading days. Today is 49 trading days from the May 23, 2013 peak. I've found the simple, mindless approach usually works better, probably because that's what the computers use. Today my broker told me some cycle guys who run a fund are exiting at today's close. I tried to figure out why. Like Newton said, "I can calculate the motion of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of men." Or as a friend who works in government said, "It's not supposed to make sense."

[aedens]

How deep for sure but the last dry hole was 2.5 million on the guidance cost. Talk about literal sunk cost.
If you want to track a 10 year note check out oxf equity on a current debt restructuring.
As H noted many are raising cash and I sold oxf today. Could I miss another 10 percent?
Do not care since twenty was my target anyway to raise cash for September, and
http://www.ridestbus.com/distrohistory.cfm
http://www.prweb.com/releases/2013/7/prweb10914737.htm

[Higgenbotham]

As a practical matter, I've been working on a partial short position on the S&P that is averaged in at 1680. I'm going to lock down on that at today's close. Up till now, I've been trading it in and out. Then if it crests more toward your date, I may do some more. As an afterthought, 54-56 trading days peak to peak is a good number to shoot for also.