Financial topics

[jcsok]

Hig - just checking in, I'm 25% short, have been out for a while, having given up a lot of $$ on this summer and fall moon shoot. I remain short 6E and have been adding, and have been long silver. As long as the Fed keeps with the quantitative easing, monetizing debt, I can see no reason for deflation, and intend to gradually build a position in silver over the next year.

[Higgenbotham]

Ah, yes, we can do healthcare and increase employment, er, I mean, involuntary part time employment.

The comparisons to 2007 and 2011 would be:

In 2007 there was the September 18 discount rate cut whereas in 2012 there was a coordinated intervention first in Europe, then a few days later in the US on September 13 with the QE3 announcement. In 2007, the SPX spiked over 1510 on the intervention and spent about 37 days trading over that level. In 2012, the SPX spiked over 1425 on the intervention and spent about 34 days trading over that level. In both cases the SPX subsequently attempted to clear the respective levels of 1510 and 1425 but the attempt in 2007 was unsuccessful and has been so far in 2012 after a comparable period of time. Though Bernake seems more determined to continue to be reckless than he was in 2007; current conditions may get more extreme. After all, this is probably the last hurrah for the good old boys, as they say.

In 2011 the SPX traded up to the May 2 high and made a last high a bit under the May high 56 trading days later on July 21. In 2012 the SPX traded up to the September 14 high and made a last high 53 trading days later on December 3. In 2012 the SPX lost 2 trading days to the hurricane.

[Higgenbotham]

jc, I'm working mightily to retain what I made on the way down from the September high and still try to maximize position size. So far I have lost 1/3 of that while the SPX has retraced 2/3. But it gets tougher from here. We could have here the proverbial 2 of 2 of 2 in Elliott terms with 2 being September 14, 2 being December 3, and 2 being the retrace this week up toward the May 1 high level. Do you see anything interesting that would give indications to look for? At one time you mentioned a cycle into the Mayan date.

Reviewing some notes today, I was reminded of the May 6, 2010 flash crash, the August 9, 2011 credit downgrade panic low, and the November 7 election result, which may have formed a low-low-high sequence 15 months apart.

I've noted the 14 and 18 month offsets in the past - those would currently work, taking us back to the October 4, 2011 low and the June 1, 2011 high.

Shorter term, something similar on a 7 day basis (ES futures) from October 18 may indicate a spike high tomorrow, whereas on a 10 day basis from September 21 would indicate a high December 3.

Today I noted 113 weeks from the March 2009 low to the May 2011 high and 184 weeks from the March 2009 low to the September 2012 high. This ratio is 0.614, near the common fibonacci ratio of 0.618. In round numbers, the SPX moved 700 points from the March 2009 low to the May 2011 high, retraced 300 points to the October 2011 low, then moved 400 points to the September 2012 high.

Today I also noted 11 months from the May 2, 2011 high to the April 2, 2012 high, and 5.5 months from the April 2, 2012 high to the September 14, 2012 high. I saw another 1/2 cycle ending pattern from the 2000 high to the 2007 high to the 2011 high. Obviously, the latter didn't hold due to the interventions. Various patterns that don't hold sometimes indicate a limit is being approached with smaller and smaller similar patterns occurring until an endpoint is reached. This happened in the lead up to the 2007 high. At present you can see what perhaps is a final half cycle ending pattern from September 14, with 35 trading days on the SPX to November 7, then 18 trading days from November 7 to December 3.

[aedens]

The bears are in control given our realism. The dialog is totaly out of control on local and metro issues since
we done the math on the local levels. Benny and the inkjets are another issue. The rest do not get it.

Dr. Lyle Rossiter wrote the book:

"The Liberal Mind: The Psychological Causes of Political Madness."

"Psychopathology of the Liberal Mind: The adult drive toward omnipotent control of others, in any arena whatever, is rooted in fears of separation, abandonment loss or abuse--the residual effects of early attachment gone wrong. The need to dominate others arises from the tyrant's need for absolute assurance that the catastrophic loss of dependency or the pain of abuse so devastating to him in his earliest years will not be repeated."

"Like spoiled, angry children, they rebel against the normal responsibilities of adulthood and demand that a parental government meet their needs from cradle to grave."

Dr. Lyle Rossiter has 37 years experience with more than 1,500 patients as a board certified clinical psychiatrist. He is also a board certified forensic psychiatrist who has examined more than 2,700 civil and criminal cases. He was educated at the University of Chicago.

[Higgenbotham]

In a sense the aggregate economic numbers are meaningless because they have been temporarily achieved by a wasting or extraction process from the middle class. I saw that middle class net worths are at a 43 year low, the lowest since 1969. This low in net worths coincides with a rebound high in the stock market. This is true class warfare that is being waged on the average American. How the average American can be so braindead and stupid to allow this theft to happen over the past 3 years in broad daylight is beyond me. That's the part I could not have predicted.

[aedens]

We covered this here H and we have one bias as we know.
Jul 03, 2011: Even as the tiny bubbles called the middle class simply cease to exist in the Obama induced myopia the drones refuse to wake.
We shall see and we know the GD outcome. We know the hope defered paradox.
" One might ask the question, "Aren't American socialists in favor of their own country's survival?"
To answer this question, we must turn to abnormal psychology.

Recall Keynes's erroneous prediction that within a century people's material wants would be satiated. When that happened, the demand for capital (to finance consumption) would plummet and rentiers (people who live on income from passive investments, such as stocks or bonds, and thus are hoarders) would be wiped out, a prospect that delighted Keynes, who looked forward to "the euthanasia of the rentier.

http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/v ... 3829#p4427 context and it was driven from all you guys.
thomasglee made a astute view on what we touched on with Clinton and we covered this to a degree on the cluster thought and realism of Carrol Quigley
from Georgtown and the essential facts. I still posit the 2016 view and need to contact a few resources on event driven isses we noted also. This is only to
narrow the timleline which fits numerous realities.

[Higgenbotham]

Put another way, people will only be able to get on with their productive lives when they can stop focusing on what Obama or Merkel are going to say or do next, or what Draghi or Bernanke are going to say or do next. They can't stop focusing on that by definition until the system collapses in a dead heap. Only those with entrepreneurial experience can understand this fact because they have lived it. I'm talking here about true entrepreneurs, not those fake entrenpreneurs who suck at the government teat. Therefore, it's a vicious swirl down to the bottom, and the swirl is only just beginning, it's nowhere near the end as most assume.

[aedens]

Yes as you note H. Even if you tell them they cannot fathom it some opine.
John's script comment has more levity to some who understood it as we do here.
We told many that Amos was unfolding from the LXX and from that to our finding
in the secular view they cannot see it some convey. I think the timer on the script
moved to another level IMO. If I am wrong this is a good thing....

[Higgenbotham]

a, I've come to think recently that the problem is more fundamental. I'll try to explain it as best I can but I've not seen this explanation and haven't tried to put it into words.

I think in truth the average IQ is decreasing. The first obvious question is how I can say this when in fact IQs are increasing. I would attribute it to something that may be termed "inherent IQ" which would be IQ in the sense of having equivalent support structures in place. In other words, if we took the average human in the US and transported them back to the 1850 or 1930 environment, they would not test out as well in that same environment as the average human in the US who existed in 1850 or 1930. Or, generally speaking, the robustness of the average human in the US is declining.

The next obvious question, then, is how can the world thus be advancing because what I am saying sounds implausible, or the world would not have advanced, technologically speaking. The answer is support structures: preschools, learning toys, formal education, interviewing processes, formal training, networks, calculators, computers, manuals, advanced communications, better nutrition, nutritional supplements, etc. Also, greater numbers help, as there are more multi standard deviation outliers. Socialism is an inherent part of that process because society, with declining "inherent IQ" is now dependent on enhancing intelligence through a support structure that it is dependent on.

This explains why the US population acts more and more like a pack of indifferent collectivist zombies.

Now imagine what happens when that support system breaks and population numbers decline, reducing the outliers, and the ability to provide the enhancements to intelligence.

[aedens]

This is also why the Coptic Christians of Egypt also lost their Coptic language, the Mamuluks used to cut their tongues out whenever they heard it
spoken. How can people not understand what is real and coming? I was conveying track the outliers to what we see on the way.
I was having a hard time explaining this same issue with my wife today and it took some time to frame out what we seen in real terms
on the districts that got stabilzed but we could not enhance services since the captial structure was only arranged to best practise
in terms to capital management. We did not change services we found contractual realities to alleviate others at our cost basis
going forward. I concur with your findings without confirmation bias given the dispositional view we are trying to stabilize.
People are going to find a rude awaking that the transitional team's incoming are not able to enhance what never was
moving forward in the first place.