Financial topics

[aedens]

I've already stated that I think that when the crash comes, it's going to happen much faster than last time. Think of Enron; they collapsed in a matter of days. Granted, i don't see it happening quite that quickly, but a timeline of 9-18 months seems reasonable.

FT reports, the deal is nowhere in sight: "Several hedge fund managers that hold Greek debt have said they have not been involved in the talks and will not be agreeing with the “private sector involvement” (PSI) deal – which centres on a 50 per cent loss on bondholders’ capital and a reduction in the interest they receive.

This may or may not be the Alamo moment. Polical sausion is Moral suasion only works so far. The IMF wants 600 Billion.
It will go Nova when the taxpayers decides IMO. Trends suggest vanilla is gone. Vanilla that stays will learn what we already know
in GD dynamics.

[Higgenbotham]

As you know I do not short, those that do find damn good reasons to and are damn good at it.

As I said to Richard, the move off of a high (like May 2, 2011) is easier to time than the move off of the rebound. The May high was timed to the exact day as posted but this one is not possible to time with any precision in my opinion. I looked at the first 10 days of January and went in on the 10th. Also, the move off the first rebound (2008) was easier to time than the move off this rebound.

At this point, forum sentiment (not here) is saying that the trend up is obvious, stocks have no upside limit because the dollar is depleting, and so forth. In this type of move, that sentiment does not help timing as much as it would have in May.

Since the May high, the periodicity has been cut to about 8 to 9 weeks from 13 to 17. However, this run from the November low has straight up for 8 weeks, creating another polarity inversion of the herd, similar to the one I mentioned last year. But I see much bigger problems than that, one of which you alluded to. Basically, it's that the natural cyclicality of the market has been disrupted. This goes back a long time and leaves an open time window for a crash, I think. If anything hits I will mention how and why later. Martin would probably undertand it.

[Trevor]

Not all the investors want to take the haircut. Many of them have Credit Default Swaps, meaning that they will be paid in full in the event of default. In theory, at least. In practice, it'll be rather difficult to accomplish that.

That's in addition to the Germans growing angry about bailing all these countries out. This is Greece's third bailout and it's accomplished nothing. I can easily see why many would say: "Screw it, let them default."

[OLD1953]

Of course the politicians will all blame the other guy, like the famous right fielder said when he wasn't having any more luck catching fly balls than the rookie he'd been sent in to replace, "that guy done messed up right field so bad, can't nobody catch those balls".

[aedens]

Of course the politicians will all blame the other guy, like the famous right fielder said when he wasn't having any more luck catching fly balls than the rookie he'd been sent in to replace, "that guy done messed up right field so bad, can't nobody catch those balls".

mainstream view: "The vigor of private demand is being sapped by unfinished business left from the incomplete clean-up of the financial crisis." and " The upshot is that because home values have fallen so far, real wealth has plunged as well."

I think you conveyed the reality Old and how can they even view more easing given the playing field to date? As always we will have to see how far you can push a string to sectors decimated trended. The public is more than aware to what is seen and unseen by percentages around them. Posted back was a link to continued sectorial work leakage loss, and they precog to release more considered stimulas as we trend the effects. We may be a off base alittle, but the public is so battered how can he get back into the game? We know the pitches have been high and inside from the potilical spectrum divorsed from reality. The sediment has been so battered I do not know the outcome as we consider the consequences to date. To paraphase breifly, the effect we do see Mises, Hayek and others would point out that money is not wealth "effect". Wealth cannot be printed. When government money-printing distorts the time-value of money , the most grave consequence is malinvestment. To me, this theory is far more credible than any other. We only have to look at the mal-investment related to the 'dot com' boom and the housing boom, to validate their assertion. This is in direct context to actual multiplier effects known. Higg as condensed the vectors, I feel appropiate. http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/v ... 930#p12000
I still cannot envision effective use of further debased Fiat. Hayek was correct on the course to means of production and the intrinsic values of fiat as others. It interferes in actual production in a most dangerous manner since it is impossible to mark and measure moral hazard malinvestments from a premise of credit collapse with out marked to market seeking stabilization. <are we seing this in a broader context?> As considered from views of you guys I feel the printing is diminished returns since the wealth effect garnered from the process is already known as a general march to improvishment we note over time and the corrosion effect's we already forwarded in the forums. Point being political capture and not addessing the master builder dilema to actual organic growth we warrant as reality.
The existing structure is set and participation forward is diluted assets and we understand the consequences long term to Triffons maxim unabated in percentage to GNP and actual productive growth lagging. Printing more cannot close the gulf already present since marked to market in housing is the effective inability for more to procure wages to buy even distressed assets on the books. Wealth effect is not structual stability. If they consider refinance a solution to net cash flow to the limited onset of the money multiplier I suggest they go back to the egg theory on cost basis ongoing.

[aedens]

http://www.leap2020.eu/GEAB-N-61-is-ava ... a8770.html

Utility is still chapter one to consider. I have read there work before above. I am still reminded of Dents analysis to Demographics.
I feel is foremost to actionary realities of Life.

" We contend that for a nation to try to tax itself into prosperity is like a man standing in a bucket and trying to lift himself up by the handle."
Winston Churchill. "

As you can see from below preservation of capital in credit collapse suggest on my part alone it was warranted.
I still am under conviction to wait since this margin check will sort and grade ongoing focus.

http://mises.org/daily/5875/How-Deflati ... -Inflation

[Trevor]

Looks like the game has changed in 2012. Instead of European countries being downgraded one or two at a time, there are going to be massive waves of downgrades. Now Fitch is talking about downgrading Spain, Italy, Belgium, Cyprus, Slovenia, and Ireland. They'll make their decision by the end of the month.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/ ... 4A20120119

[aedens]

http://www.ici.org/pressroom/news/ret_11_q3
chart P@rn
I seen a week or so back a ECB per capita for the EU. If get time I will repost there release #
Locally we are seeing a bounce. As we all know trust but verify. I am under conviction to
think glacial movement as earlier conveyed in the forums pages back.
Under 9.3% since sept 2008 so locally we are moving albeit so painfully.

[aedens]

Looks like the game has changed in 2012. Instead of European countries being downgraded one or two at a time, there are going to be massive waves of downgrades. Now Fitch is talking about downgrading Spain, Italy, Belgium, Cyprus, Slovenia, and Ireland. They'll make their decision by the end of the month.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/ ... 4A20120119

http://www.ecb.int/press/pr/wfs/2012/ht ... 04.en.html
Enjoy

[Trevor]

I admit, I was expecting the other rating agencies to follow suit, although not quite this soon. If downgrades now are coming in waves instead of drips, that's an even worse sign for the world market. Moody's will likely do the same.