Oh, the VIX was up 6% today:
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/in ... style=1013
Financial topics
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Higgenbotham
- Posts: 7985
- Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm
Re: Financial topics
The battle in the stock market continued today. The S&P spiked to a new high, then gave up most of the gain into the close and closed under the January 12 close. However, some of the other indices closed above the January 12 closing high today. Today's spike and partial failure was very similar to that seen on May 19, 2008 at that secondary top. In order to confirm this particular topping pattern I have been laying out over past days, there will be no highs or closes above those of the past few days in the S&P. The January 12 close wil be the high close for years to come. Of course, I'll take that one with a grain of salt and one day at a time. But it's there.
Oh, the VIX was up 6% today:
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/in ... style=1013
Oh, the VIX was up 6% today:
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/in ... style=1013
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
Re: Financial topics EU Debt and future of EURO
Dear Bertrand,
is practically vacuous.
However, I agree that the EU and the euro will exist ten years from
now. As I've said in the past, I expect the survivors to create a new
European Union out of the ashes of the coming war, complete with a
constitution and a euro currency for all 27 nations (or however many
nations there are).
John
The Stratfor article reads like a Brussels press release, andburt wrote: > I recommend you read the article from Stratfor:
> http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/european-crisis-2012
> So where we are now:
> -1- Euro is GOING to exist for the next 10 years,
> -2- Europe is headed by a recession (you have to pay somewhere
> this kind of craziness),
> -3- the political fight will continue for a while, but EU is NOT
> going to be erased, as long a people want it, and EVERYONE in
> Europe is asking for a "stronger" Europe, the is NO risk of any
> major social unrest, the only things that people are asking for is
> "kicking the can down the road" at WHATEVER price.
> -4- Nothing to do with the article, but the Swiss Franc won't
> exist any more by 2015-2017, Euro will become the only money
> within Europe, maybe before disappearing, but his is another story
> ECB can do a lot of crazy things within the next 10 years, and
> don't forget that Draghi was part of the bank that put Greece on
> the brink, he can do the same thing with Euro and this will "save"
> the Euro for 10 years, before a "splendid" crash. He doesn't care
> more that what did Greenspan with the dollar (which will survive
> AS LONG as US have a lot of "aircraft carrier" and "drones" and
> military stuff, enough to "crash" any "ennemy") this is part of
> definiti0n of a money.
is practically vacuous.
However, I agree that the EU and the euro will exist ten years from
now. As I've said in the past, I expect the survivors to create a new
European Union out of the ashes of the coming war, complete with a
constitution and a euro currency for all 27 nations (or however many
nations there are).
John
Re: Financial topics
I would expect for the Euro to fall apart, at least temporarily, once the financial crisis fully hits. Based on the massive wave of downgrades and that the rating agencies are warning that a greek default won't be long, I don't expect it to take much longer.
The European crisis has not ended. This is just a blip where people are patting themselves on the back, stating that they've fixed everything, but in a few days, they're going to realize that's a giant load of crap and investors will start panicking again.
The European crisis has not ended. This is just a blip where people are patting themselves on the back, stating that they've fixed everything, but in a few days, they're going to realize that's a giant load of crap and investors will start panicking again.
Re: Financial topics
KOO on eurocentric:
For more than a decade I have been warning that those rating agencies which do not understand balance sheet recessions could downgrade countries in the midst of such recessions based solely on economic weakness and the size of their budget deficits and jeopardize these countries’ ability to carry out the fiscal stimulus needed during this kind of recession. The recent actions by Standard & Poor’s are a case in point.
Going forward IMO:
Academic economics responded to these empirical challenges to its accepted theory in the time-honoured way: it ignored them.
KOO on sanity issues:
This is akin to a doctor telling a patient suffering from pneumonia to go on a diet and get more exercise. While exercise is important, it assumes a healthy patient. If the patient is sick, he must build up his strength until he is physically capable of exercising again.
The yields on JGBs therefore remained anchored at low levels even as Moody’s downgraded Japan’s credit rating to below that of Botswana. And it was domestic investors’ reasoned behavior that enabled Japan’s economy to emerge finally from the balance sheet recession.
I would consider they are stocking commodity's and will debase. The next few quarters will decide IMO.
KOO: If nothing is done, however, the private savings flowing into Germany from Spain and Ireland will not be spent and will effectively represent a leakage to the broader eurozone income stream. In that sense, Germany’s refusal to serve as the “borrower of last resort” is accelerating the eurozone’s plunge into a deflationary spiral.
Funds naturally flow to government bonds when private sector is not borrowing.
So basically the private sector is not needed in his opinion.
This is in direct context to actual multiplier effects. Print more and still be unable to meet coupon payment?
We are right on target to what we already know. http://www.dailyjobcuts.com/
KOO: If banks cannot meet lower capital targets, public funds should be injected.
If lenders have difficulty meeting even the lower 7% capital requirement, the authorities should inject fresh capital into the banking system. Government capital infusions during a credit crunch caused by a shortage of capital have a leveraged effect, and the economic impact is correspondingly large. If banks’ inability to meet a 7% capital requirement is at the heart of the credit contraction, a capital injection would support lending equal to 1/0.07 = 14.3 times the value of the government’s investment. In my view this represents a very effective use of taxpayer money.
Effective use of further debased Fiat. Hayek was correct on the course to means of production and the intrinsic values of fiat.
Interferes in actual production in a most dangerous manner since it is impossible to mark and measure moral hazard malinvestments from a premise of credit collapse with out marked to market seeking stabilization. <are we seing this in a broader context?>
Would anyone here invest in diluted PPI net working capital markets since the bear eats the slowest runner in a
http://www.jstor.org/pss/1805447 rent dissipated reality ? Tiny bubbles are consumers we conveyed before here in the forums.
As a household we have managed debt ratio's, mantained and increased education opportunity, Ponder how the extent of current ideas
can resolve centralized solution to balances under the duress of gradualism missed by the passage of time over the last few decades.
For more than a decade I have been warning that those rating agencies which do not understand balance sheet recessions could downgrade countries in the midst of such recessions based solely on economic weakness and the size of their budget deficits and jeopardize these countries’ ability to carry out the fiscal stimulus needed during this kind of recession. The recent actions by Standard & Poor’s are a case in point.
Going forward IMO:
Academic economics responded to these empirical challenges to its accepted theory in the time-honoured way: it ignored them.
KOO on sanity issues:
This is akin to a doctor telling a patient suffering from pneumonia to go on a diet and get more exercise. While exercise is important, it assumes a healthy patient. If the patient is sick, he must build up his strength until he is physically capable of exercising again.
The yields on JGBs therefore remained anchored at low levels even as Moody’s downgraded Japan’s credit rating to below that of Botswana. And it was domestic investors’ reasoned behavior that enabled Japan’s economy to emerge finally from the balance sheet recession.
I would consider they are stocking commodity's and will debase. The next few quarters will decide IMO.
KOO: If nothing is done, however, the private savings flowing into Germany from Spain and Ireland will not be spent and will effectively represent a leakage to the broader eurozone income stream. In that sense, Germany’s refusal to serve as the “borrower of last resort” is accelerating the eurozone’s plunge into a deflationary spiral.
Funds naturally flow to government bonds when private sector is not borrowing.
So basically the private sector is not needed in his opinion.
This is in direct context to actual multiplier effects. Print more and still be unable to meet coupon payment?
We are right on target to what we already know. http://www.dailyjobcuts.com/
KOO: If banks cannot meet lower capital targets, public funds should be injected.
If lenders have difficulty meeting even the lower 7% capital requirement, the authorities should inject fresh capital into the banking system. Government capital infusions during a credit crunch caused by a shortage of capital have a leveraged effect, and the economic impact is correspondingly large. If banks’ inability to meet a 7% capital requirement is at the heart of the credit contraction, a capital injection would support lending equal to 1/0.07 = 14.3 times the value of the government’s investment. In my view this represents a very effective use of taxpayer money.
Effective use of further debased Fiat. Hayek was correct on the course to means of production and the intrinsic values of fiat.
Interferes in actual production in a most dangerous manner since it is impossible to mark and measure moral hazard malinvestments from a premise of credit collapse with out marked to market seeking stabilization. <are we seing this in a broader context?>
Would anyone here invest in diluted PPI net working capital markets since the bear eats the slowest runner in a
http://www.jstor.org/pss/1805447 rent dissipated reality ? Tiny bubbles are consumers we conveyed before here in the forums.
As a household we have managed debt ratio's, mantained and increased education opportunity, Ponder how the extent of current ideas
can resolve centralized solution to balances under the duress of gradualism missed by the passage of time over the last few decades.
-
Higgenbotham
- Posts: 7985
- Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm
Re: Financial topics
Last night, I noted a pattern in yeterday's S&P 500 activity that has been indicative of major highs, not only on May 19, 2008, but also at the all time high of October 11, 2007 and last years high on May 2, 2011. In this pattern, the stock market spikes up about 15 points, then reverses, closing near the open. Today, the market ran right over yesterday's activity, closing over 1300 and at a new high since August of last year.
From a generational perspective, I would say the polarity of the herd today was the most extreme we have seen during this generational period (relative to the appearance of real conditions). This could mean one of several things in my mind (take your pick): 1. The economy really is going to improve and the stock market is heading into a bonafide bull market. None of this stuff we're jabbering about here really matters. It is the same old "Wall of Worry" the stock market has climbed since 1932. 2. There is going to be a hyperinflation and investors are grabbing up real assets to get out of cash. 3. Markets have become very disorderly with all of the financial engineering and there is extreme false signalling occurring. This extreme has fooled the majority and will lead to a deflationary crash, similar to Wylie Coyote chasing Road Runner off a cliff. I'm still picking Door Number Three and am still 200% short from last week.
From a generational perspective, I would say the polarity of the herd today was the most extreme we have seen during this generational period (relative to the appearance of real conditions). This could mean one of several things in my mind (take your pick): 1. The economy really is going to improve and the stock market is heading into a bonafide bull market. None of this stuff we're jabbering about here really matters. It is the same old "Wall of Worry" the stock market has climbed since 1932. 2. There is going to be a hyperinflation and investors are grabbing up real assets to get out of cash. 3. Markets have become very disorderly with all of the financial engineering and there is extreme false signalling occurring. This extreme has fooled the majority and will lead to a deflationary crash, similar to Wylie Coyote chasing Road Runner off a cliff. I'm still picking Door Number Three and am still 200% short from last week.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
Re: Financial topics
I think a large contruct has been missing to the nature of actual trade. Long ago a COLT "Certificate of Lettered Trade" was issued to assurances to the actual currency value "emptor" "buyer", of a holding trust company of trade. This was a reality even the Keynsians will admit. The problem is the progressives seen a carte blanche to deficiet spending to settle acounts from a swap basis which did accure as the Cleveland Fed published which was linked. The intellectual's capture of commerce is the basis that you confere as option three. I see it as a wasting process and political suicide at the actual taxpayers expense since this will ring true ad naseum that in the long run there is no unpopular Government. Given the couse the regulation based on ideoligical considerations it will stabilize only when the multiplier effect is enabled again and not until then. I will continue to black hole capital since I only have to outrun the last bear as mentioned. I have considered many stripes of so called regard to how and what they think I need as a taxpayer and investor. To be plain and blunt they desire no balance since as we also know if you have groups not interested in a solutiuon there is none. I do not see a utter collapse but a wasting process. Very early in my career I seen the effects of waste and careless until it collapsed. We had to collapse to organize since no one wanted a solution until we had to since all knew the death of the organization was not on doorstep but had come. I spent many years in forensic thought and documentation aquirement to the foot steps to the gates of hell. Unless you seen the process and steps as many have you cannot speak of there circumstances since choices are linkages to morality. Some have it, more do not. I will stay prudent and fixated even if has to be the grandchildrens inheritance with stipulations clearly outlined if I must. Balance is not the question to trade, Values are.
http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/da ... .nav=Local
Enjoy the quo : http://www.youtube.com/user/AnnBarnhard ... tktFygI8Lc Based on a real conversation. I have watched this mindset since the seventy's
http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/da ... .nav=Local
Enjoy the quo : http://www.youtube.com/user/AnnBarnhard ... tktFygI8Lc Based on a real conversation. I have watched this mindset since the seventy's
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Higgenbotham
- Posts: 7985
- Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm
Re: Financial topics
Certainly that is what is going on in front of us. My best non economic model is that of flutter or overstimulation of the patient as mentioned a few months ago. Both of those 2 processes are wasting processes that lead to collapse, but the collapse is unpredictable. At this point there seems to be a lot left in the structure or the patient, but that is deceiving as to how real or not real it might be. Anyone who is going short here is taking major risk. Anyone who was going short between 1075 and 1230, as many were talking just a short while ago, was taking absolutely insane risk. I will link back to those 2 posts when I find them. But it's the overstimulation that is the key point, I think.aedens wrote:I do not see a utter collapse but a wasting process.
http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/v ... 638#p11638
http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/v ... 204#p10204
"Flutter is a self-feeding and potentially destructive vibration where aerodynamic forces on an object couple with a structure's natural mode of vibration to produce rapid periodic motion. The amplitude can thus build up and is only limited when the energy dissipated by aerodynamic and mechanical damping matches the energy input, which can result in large amplitude vibration and potentially lead to rapid failure."
"Excessive Use of Natural Stimulatory Compounds
Needless to say this is an undesirable recovery pattern even for those with normal or strong constitution. Overtime, this is a recipe for failure."
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
Re: Financial topics
http://icfpub.som.yale.edu/system/fileu ... 1316546625
"The initial buildup of debt, Fisher argued, is related to certain changes in psychology , distinct phases.
Mises unfolded the argument to conclusion also in Human Action to certitude we witness also.
We touched on alexander and leo who seen more than psychology but the root of the matter to many miss.
To many use a six inch paint brush to diminish there own submission to bias as we all can do.
The mechanism is understood. I will reserve comment on the thought of IT "inflation targeting i.e baskets"
in contextual consideration of PE "political economic". I had a thought the other day which will take
some time to assemble. I concur on the premise of stimulation "over" as, lets say, pandering.
We captured the rate of fixed capital consumption I confer as asset strippers "agency" of intent.
It can be defined as creative destruction but that is a unfair assessment to the process of the investor
class predecation "wasting". I think we can convey our fulcrum of GD as a indicator to open source edification.
As you know I do not short, those that do find damn good reasons to and are damn good at it. In our outfit you short
your gone.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YSfTdzoO ... re=related
"The initial buildup of debt, Fisher argued, is related to certain changes in psychology , distinct phases.
Mises unfolded the argument to conclusion also in Human Action to certitude we witness also.
We touched on alexander and leo who seen more than psychology but the root of the matter to many miss.
To many use a six inch paint brush to diminish there own submission to bias as we all can do.
The mechanism is understood. I will reserve comment on the thought of IT "inflation targeting i.e baskets"
in contextual consideration of PE "political economic". I had a thought the other day which will take
some time to assemble. I concur on the premise of stimulation "over" as, lets say, pandering.
We captured the rate of fixed capital consumption I confer as asset strippers "agency" of intent.
It can be defined as creative destruction but that is a unfair assessment to the process of the investor
class predecation "wasting". I think we can convey our fulcrum of GD as a indicator to open source edification.
As you know I do not short, those that do find damn good reasons to and are damn good at it. In our outfit you short
your gone.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YSfTdzoO ... re=related
Re: Financial topics
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/obama-bla ... l-decision
"But such is the terminal game of political marionettes which we have."
Wasting, and your amplitude effect is spot on also Higg.
Regulated until extintion. “Comparison of the Two Economic Globalization Paradigm”
You can see what I mean to the inert status and decline.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zSOhD6c786E reading music about - happy accidents...
Lost before we even had a cause. http://theconservativetreehouse.com/201 ... lishments/
In the long run there is no unpopular government as Mises conveyed. We already noted the fork in road.
Taxpayers truly deserve there govenment. There are only four soils. Conditions of the people.
Zeus then punished Prometheus for his crime by having him bound to a rock while a great eagle ate his liver every day only to have it grow back to be eaten again the next day. The market as I see it today IMO
"But such is the terminal game of political marionettes which we have."
Wasting, and your amplitude effect is spot on also Higg.
Regulated until extintion. “Comparison of the Two Economic Globalization Paradigm”
You can see what I mean to the inert status and decline.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zSOhD6c786E reading music about - happy accidents...
Lost before we even had a cause. http://theconservativetreehouse.com/201 ... lishments/
In the long run there is no unpopular government as Mises conveyed. We already noted the fork in road.
Taxpayers truly deserve there govenment. There are only four soils. Conditions of the people.
Zeus then punished Prometheus for his crime by having him bound to a rock while a great eagle ate his liver every day only to have it grow back to be eaten again the next day. The market as I see it today IMO
Re: Financial topics
I've already stated that I think that when the crash comes, it's going to happen much faster than last time. Think of Enron; they collapsed in a matter of days. Granted, i don't see it happening quite that quickly, but a timeline of 9-18 months seems reasonable.
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