Financial topics

[aedens]

As you noted h viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2&start=9910#p22071

I pulled out of shorts on this dip when 1832 held. For now I had better assume it holds.

gdx kept me very close to even and not short yet, like i noted higg been selling into this passing window. Also bought more VNRAP for interim pause.
I will not hurry watching the usual suspects.

[Higgenbotham]

As you noted h viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2&start=9910#p22071

I pulled out of shorts on this dip when 1832 held. For now I had better assume it holds.

gdx kept me very close to even and not short yet, like i noted higg been selling into this passing window. Also bought more VNRAP for interim pause.
I will not hurry watching the usual suspects.

Today's rebound has been too strong in my opinion, as it indicates the market is very bipolar once again, as we've seen it before other crashes. I had still been moving in and out for small gains until today and actually was not short where yesterday afternoon's drop started from 1824 (ES futures price).

I am 25% short again this morning, averaged in at 1822.75 (futures price) with the high so far today at 1832.50 and last price at 1829.25. The market seems very erratic and I think the sharp moves in both directions are foretelling a crash, but it may not bottom as soon as the next 2 days.

The potential problem I see today is the market is getting erratic around the full moon, which is tomorrow. This also happened in 1929 before the crash, in nearly the same way it is happening this week.

Of course, market movement can be random but there are too many things lining up, some of which was posted last weekend. This is one more thing that is lining up for a crash.

I am not going into this owning any stock, even GDX. Sold all GDX.

[Higgenbotham]

These 2 charts show the details of the similar movement in the 6 weeks before the 1929 crash compared with the 6 weeks before today.

The 2 dojis are the 2 little red bars that look like pins.

It looks like there was a deliberate stock market manipulation after the first Fed announcement of QE tapering on December 18 which was designed to prevent a crash from getting started. Either that, or the positive seasonal period and perhaps a little boost by the Fed got investors in a jovial holiday mood.

Since 1929 was a long time ago, I prefer to look more closely at nearby periods such as the period before the flash crash, posted last weekend, for more exact comparisons. That still seems to be a match to the recent activity.

Though I think the match to 1929 is very good considering that it was 84 years ago. Even if a lot of other conditions change, human nature doesn't, and I think that is what this comparison shows.

As an alternative to an imminent crash within the next few days, this may be showing that there are cracks in the market that might show up later, maybe few weeks from now. But I'm not betting on it just yet.

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[Higgenbotham]

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[Higgenbotham]

It's also occurred to me that the market peaked at 1220 in April 2010 and is about 50% higher today at 1838. That in my opinion is just nuts for a rebound from the 2009 crash. 3-4 years beyond insane.

The other common feature to the April 2010 time period was the market was exactly 14 months from the March 6, 2009 low when the flash crash occurred on May 6, 2010. 14 months from the November 16, 2012 low will be 2 days from now, Thursday, January 16, 2014.

I'm therefore inclined to think that today's rebound is similar to May 3, 2010, the white bar on the chart that precedes the flash crash.

Though with markets it is always very difficult to tell and there always seem to be 2 equally plausible choices. The alternative that plays out is often the one that surprises the most people.

I'm probably going to move to 50% short soon. We'll see how the next day goes.

I guess those are irrelevant details. I guess the main idea for John's blog and forum is that a generational crash was delayed in 2010 and now it may be right around the corner. Whether it's in 2 days or a week or a little longer, the signs are here.

[aedens]

As it was noted by t the today's closing S&P 500 futures VWAP perfectly in line with yesterday's closing VWAP... Interestingly, the moment it hit VWAP the rally stopped...

Indicators should not be ignored as conveyed which many are severe.

I'm probably going to move to 50% short soon. We'll see how the next day goes.

As I watch the three peaks and a new dome develop on this probable conformation step no excuses exist IMO.

Jevons’ paradox indeed makes the thinking souls ponder how avarice and the walking in circles claim more innocent lives.

It’s not a political point; it’s a psychological one in the nature of economy.

A few days after the full I try to locate, and more than not sell a few days after the new.
Works more than not but conditions exist as we just seen on confirmation did we not.

Patterns do trend as we know. Attribution Bias can be painful. As Epicurus told Alexander why are you standing in my sunlight.
He took Aristotle to spread the light.

remember that the nature of man has not changed

Redacted from Lucian : And from this point, as Thucydides might say, the war takes its beginning. These ambitious scoundrels were quite devoid of scruples, and they had now joined forces; it could not escape their penetration that human life is under the absolute dominion of two mighty principles, fear and hope, and that any one who can make these serve his ends may be sure of a rapid fortune. They realized that, whether a man is most swayed by the one or by the other, what he must most depend upon and desire is a knowledge of futurity. So were to be explained the ancient wealth and fame of Delphi, Delos, Clarus, Branchidae; it was at the bidding of the two tyrants aforesaid that men thronged the temples, longed for foreknowledge, and to attain it sacrificed their hecatombs or dedicated their golden ingots. All this they turned over and debated, and it issued in the resolve to establish an oracle. If it were successful, they looked for immediate wealth and prosperity; the result surpassed their most sanguine expectations.

Doctor Quigley and rational expectations of tragedy and hope seen more than some can admit.

The aspects of fear and praise passed to better and lasting principles to more is the only hope.

[Higgenbotham]

Someone asked me today if I had heard about the Black Budget ops. It's been in the news lately.


http://www.financialsense.com/contribut ... stin-fitts
http://www.financialsensearchive.com/Ex ... Fitts.html
In my opinion Catherine is the real deal.

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL0405/S00268.htm
In here, she talks about the Black Budget ops but I thought the most interesting thing looking back is she painted the 2 scenarios with good accuracy in 2004. I think the question of the stock market comes down to which scenario wins out.

America's Black Budget and the Manipulation of Mortgage & Financial Markets
May 22, 2004

JP: Catherine, getting back to the other economy that’s out there now, the Credit Bubble, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, all of this Credit financing, what’s your view in terms of how this ends.

CA: Right. I think there are two scenarios. One is the bust, which is this thing keeps going as long as it can be financed by the U.S. governmental apparatus, and at some point, you know, as the Japanese and everyone else says we’re not buying any more of this, we’re not taking more dollars, the thing busts. And when it busts, what you’re going to have is, it’s going to be 1929 but worse. Because in 1929, there was a lot of social capital in America. It was a much kinder, gentler place I think than it is now. And you had many more people that knew how to grow their own food, or knew how to function. So one scenario is the bust.

The other scenario though Jim is the Orwellian scenario, which is we’ve reached a point, and I’ve written many articles about this, where rather than let financial assets adjust, the powers that be now have the control of the economy through the banking system and through the governmental apparatus, they can simply steal more money, keep financial assets, you know whether it’s the stock market pumped up, the derivatives going, or the gold price manipulated down. And they simply liquidate all living things rather than let the economy go bust. In other words, you can adjust to your economy not by letting the value of the stock market or financial assets fall, but you can use warfare and organized crime to liquidate and steal whatever it is you need to keep the game going. And that’s the kind of Orwellian scenario whereby you can basically keep this thing going, but in a way that leads to a highly totalitarian government and economy … corporate feudalism.

[Higgenbotham]

I'm probably going to move to 50% short soon. We'll see how the next day goes.

As I watch the three peaks and a new dome develop on this probable conformation step no excuses exist IMO.

Not sure what that tells us.

"THREE TOPS AND A DOME

Since the 1980s I have written my own computer programs to study past market patterns to allow me to see the details of the "averaged" market patterns that have been written about over the years. One of the patterns I have often read about is "three tops and a dome."

I think the current market is moving into that type of a pattern so I reviewed my history of past market tops since 1886 to find the FOLLOWING actual "three tops and a dome" market top patterns so we can study and make comparisons to the current market.

BOTTOM LINE: Be prepared for an "event" to complete the top pattern resulting in a sharp and sudden decline. (In other words, gun slingers should be ready to draw, and everybody else should be on the sidelines.)"

http://www.stockindextiming.com/marketv ... /index.htm

All I know is when that trigger event crosses the news wire and they hit "sell at market" some night in the futures nobody gets out.

Comparison to the ten previous domes he posted shows the pattern complete compared to most of them. I think McClellan has been saying January 15 for 1929.

[Higgenbotham]

http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_ce ... 29_analog/

January 14 actually. Thanks for the reminder. Today looked like the end but maybe it goes beyond all past precedent.

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[aedens]

https://www.cimicweb.org/Pages/newhomepage/index.html

Complicated affairs Higg on what was sewn together. Some of these thread and thoughts go back many decades to was and is now
even before this current rendition and iteration of affairs. The 14th is a curious date indeed.

Be prepared -- yes we agree on many viable constructs seen.

If the dome is the volcano we speculate of in context to data I suggest only today and probable pattern recognition conditions trended as we witness
the usual suspects.