Financial topics

[Cool Breeze]

Bitcoin is continuing down Saturday. Now at $35,212. I think this increases the chances that the stock market is down Monday. But still not clear any panic just yet.
Maybe a bit longer at moderate drops and panic later.

I see support at 33 generally. Limit order for me.

I'm in, again.

If the stock market crashes I expect Bitcoin to crash even further.
My plan is puts on the S&P 500 and then after crash buying Bitcoin.

Slow draw down and then reversal by the Fed, Vince?

[vincecate]

Slow draw down and then reversal by the Fed, Vince?

I think they will fight inflation till the stock market has crashed and interest rates are too high for the Federal government with $30 trillion in debt.

Then I think congress will takeover the Fed basically and make them buy all the bonds the Federal government wants to sell.
Not sure how this "takeover" will happen. Maybe a new law, or maybe they replace the chairman, or maybe pressure somehow.
But after that basically the government will be printing and spending money.

Then hyperinflation.

This is what normally happens.

For hyperinflation I think Bitcoin, gold, silver, and oil are good. But you also don't want to be in a country that taxes you on profits, as inflation makes fake profits and the taxes are real. Anguilla does not tax profits.

[Cool Breeze]

Slow draw down and then reversal by the Fed, Vince?

I think they will fight inflation till the stock market has crashed and interest rates are too high for the Federal government with $30 trillion in debt.

Then I think congress will takeover the Fed basically and make them buy all the bonds the Federal government wants to sell.
Not sure how this "takeover" will happen. Maybe a new law, or maybe they replace the chairman, or maybe pressure somehow.
But after that basically the government will be printing and spending money.

Then hyperinflation.

This is very possible. And a circuitous route to everyone flowing, eventually, into BTC to a grand degree.

It's going to happen either way, I'm not sure why it's so hard for people to understand around here, it's pretty obvious.

[vincecate]

The S&P 500 is at 4032 as I write this. Still think if we get below 4000 that will cause selling to pick up.
Probably not today, but maybe in the next couple days.

Update 20 minutes later: It has dipped under 4000.

Update after close: Closed 3991

I think we are going to keep going down over the coming weeks.

[Cool Breeze]

The S&P 500 is at 4032 as I write this. Still think if we get below 4000 that will cause selling to pick up.
Probably not today, but maybe in the next couple days.

Update 20 minutes later: It has dipped under 4000.

Update after close: Closed 3991

I think we are going to keep going down over the coming weeks.

I don't doubt this. Still, over a 4+ year period it is way up. Let's see if it sinks yuuugely.

[richard5za]

The S&P 500 is at 4032 as I write this. Still think if we get below 4000 that will cause selling to pick up.
Probably not today, but maybe in the next couple days.

Update 20 minutes later: It has dipped under 4000.

Update after close: Closed 3991

I think we are going to keep going down over the coming weeks.

My own take on S&P 500 is that its likely to bounce off 4000, and then after a choppy period will make the next leg down perhaps 3500. The choppy period might be as short as a couple of days but I think more likely something between a couple of weeks to a couple of months. The bottom will only be reached when the Fed starts reducing interest rates again and I think that could be a long time given the extent of inflation. But of course markets make fools of us all and this might be wrong (again) Also the bottom, I suspect will be a temporary bottom as I suspect the longer term bottom will be less than 1300

[vincecate]

My own take on S&P 500 is that its likely to bounce off 4000, and then after a choppy period will make the next leg down perhaps 3500. The choppy period might be as short as a couple of days but I think more likely something between a couple of weeks to a couple of months. The bottom will only be reached when the Fed starts reducing interest rates again and I think that could be a long time given the extent of inflation. But of course markets make fools of us all and this might be wrong (again) Also the bottom, I suspect will be a temporary bottom as I suspect the longer term bottom will be less than 1300

There is some chance that the CPI tomorrow morning just sinks things.

[Cool Breeze]

The S&P 500 is at 4032 as I write this. Still think if we get below 4000 that will cause selling to pick up.
Probably not today, but maybe in the next couple days.

Update 20 minutes later: It has dipped under 4000.

Update after close: Closed 3991

I think we are going to keep going down over the coming weeks.

My own take on S&P 500 is that its likely to bounce off 4000, and then after a choppy period will make the next leg down perhaps 3500. The choppy period might be as short as a couple of days but I think more likely something between a couple of weeks to a couple of months. The bottom will only be reached when the Fed starts reducing interest rates again and I think that could be a long time given the extent of inflation. But of course markets make fools of us all and this might be wrong (again) Also the bottom, I suspect will be a temporary bottom as I suspect the longer term bottom will be less than 1300

Longer bottom next year, yes.

[vincecate]

My own take on S&P 500 is that its likely to bounce off 4000, and then after a choppy period will make the next leg down perhaps 3500. The choppy period might be as short as a couple of days but I think more likely something between a couple of weeks to a couple of months. The bottom will only be reached when the Fed starts reducing interest rates again and I think that could be a long time given the extent of inflation. But of course markets make fools of us all and this might be wrong (again) Also the bottom, I suspect will be a temporary bottom as I suspect the longer term bottom will be less than 1300

Longer bottom next year, yes.

I think we will get a real crash and the bottom will be this year.

[Cool Breeze]

My own take on S&P 500 is that its likely to bounce off 4000, and then after a choppy period will make the next leg down perhaps 3500. The choppy period might be as short as a couple of days but I think more likely something between a couple of weeks to a couple of months. The bottom will only be reached when the Fed starts reducing interest rates again and I think that could be a long time given the extent of inflation. But of course markets make fools of us all and this might be wrong (again) Also the bottom, I suspect will be a temporary bottom as I suspect the longer term bottom will be less than 1300

Longer bottom next year, yes.

I think we will get a real crash and the bottom will be this year.

Ok, we shall see.