by Navigator » Thu Nov 12, 2026 5:20 pm
I have been watching with intense interest the latest reports out of Ukraine.
I tend to watch the following on You-tube:
The Military Show
United24
They are both obviously pro-Ukrainian, but they are showing a good bit of detail of what is going on.
Western Militaries are almost wholly unprepared for the type of warfare now going on in Ukraine. Technology, specifically drones, have advanced so far that the tactics and most logistical operations used by world armies outside of the Russo-Ukraine conflict are now woefully obsolete.
Right now the only armies with practical experience with how war is now fought are Ukraine and Russia.
The casualty rates are starting to approach those of the most bloody wars ever fought.
In WW1, mobilization into the French Army meant that there was about a 60% chance of becoming a casualty (15% chance of death). In the infantry, you could basically plan on dying.
In the US Civil War, joining the Union Army meant about a 20% chance of being a casualty. If you were in a combat unit and showed up at a large battle (a la Gettysburg), the chance of becoming a casualty was between 33 and 40%.
In the Ukraine War, I estimate that the Ukrainians have mobilized about 1.8 Million so far. Of those, 600 K have become casualties (of which 150 K are deaths). Hard to tell how many Russians have been mobilized, but they have suffered 450 K deaths (from a hack of the Russians own databases). So Ukraine war participation means a minimum of 33% chance of becoming a casualty.
On top of this, there is no good way to evacuate wounded from the front lines in Ukraine. There are no helicopter "dust-offs". It is taking roughly a couple of weeks to get a wounded soldier back to the Army Hospital. It takes longer for a soldier to get from the rear areas to the front lines. It is, for all intents and purposes, a high tech version of the Western Front in WW1.
I have been watching with intense interest the latest reports out of Ukraine.
I tend to watch the following on You-tube:
The Military Show
United24
They are both obviously pro-Ukrainian, but they are showing a good bit of detail of what is going on.
Western Militaries are almost wholly unprepared for the type of warfare now going on in Ukraine. Technology, specifically drones, have advanced so far that the tactics and most logistical operations used by world armies outside of the Russo-Ukraine conflict are now woefully obsolete.
Right now the only armies with practical experience with how war is now fought are Ukraine and Russia.
The casualty rates are starting to approach those of the most bloody wars ever fought.
In WW1, mobilization into the French Army meant that there was about a 60% chance of becoming a casualty (15% chance of death). In the infantry, you could basically plan on dying.
In the US Civil War, joining the Union Army meant about a 20% chance of being a casualty. If you were in a combat unit and showed up at a large battle (a la Gettysburg), the chance of becoming a casualty was between 33 and 40%.
In the Ukraine War, I estimate that the Ukrainians have mobilized about 1.8 Million so far. Of those, 600 K have become casualties (of which 150 K are deaths). Hard to tell how many Russians have been mobilized, but they have suffered 450 K deaths (from a hack of the Russians own databases). So Ukraine war participation means a minimum of 33% chance of becoming a casualty.
On top of this, there is no good way to evacuate wounded from the front lines in Ukraine. There are no helicopter "dust-offs". It is taking roughly a couple of weeks to get a wounded soldier back to the Army Hospital. It takes longer for a soldier to get from the rear areas to the front lines. It is, for all intents and purposes, a high tech version of the Western Front in WW1.