Generational Dynamics World View News

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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

by Navigator » Tue Jan 27, 2026 6:39 pm

Xi won't accept defeat. He can't. If he does, he's dead. Plus the whole CCP with him. So we cannot even count on a change of leadership causing China to accept defeat. Only happens when CCP is overthrown. This will take some time, and EXTREME hardship in China, as in mass starvation.

As for wargames, those that model future results are completely dependent on the information loaded into them. The designers always have to make assumptions as to the actual effectiveness of different weapons systems. Then there is no real way to model the element of surprise, or other random events that tend to throw everything "off course" as far as the wargame is concerned. So I would take any wargame results with a grain of salt.

WW3 is going to spiral in almost the same way that WW1 spiraled. The Germans failed to take Paris in 1914 when their Schlieffen Plan failed. The Kaiser should have realistically admitted defeat after the Battle of the Marne, but could/would not. The war then expanded to theaters that were unanticipated, such as Ottoman empire involvement, Italian involvement, Germans entering Austria-Hungary's sphere of influence in the Balkans, then Bulgarian and later Romanian and Greek involvement. Japanese and Chinese involvement. Heck, at one point the Japanese had a naval squadron in the Mediterranean supporting French/Italian anti-German and Austrian submarine activity. Then, US and Brazilian involvement and Russian Collapse.

The thing that ended the war was mass starvation in Germany and Austria which caused a revolutionary overthrow of the Kaiser.

All of the above are examples of how WW3 is going to spiral from Taiwan specific to almost worldwide.

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

by spottybrowncow » Mon Jan 26, 2026 8:45 pm

Thanks, Navigator.

I guess the logical f/u question would be, if and when Xi surrounds himself with "Yes" men, and attacks Taiwan, and eventually realizes he can't win, will he accept defeat, or will he resort to nukes, and if he does, will his people follow through on his orders? I know you don't have crystal ball, just wondering.

Also - what do you make of the TIDALWAVE AI-driven war games which show China winning in essentially every scenario? https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump- ... iness-gaps

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

by Navigator » Mon Jan 26, 2026 12:38 pm

The guy that Xi just took out was supposedly one of his own. He was one of the last in senior military leadership with actual combat experience (Vietnam offensive in late '70s).

My guess is that he was "realistic" about Chinese military capabilities, and didn't want to fight the west. My additional guess is that he will be replaced by someone who tells Xi what he wants to hear, namely that attacking Taiwan is feasible and would be achieved relatively quickly.

I do not believe current reports that the dismissed general was leaking nuclear secrets to US. This is just the CCP internal justification for the sacking.

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

by spottybrowncow » Mon Jan 26, 2026 10:07 am

Would some of you military guys like to comment on Xi's latest "reshuffling" of his top brass?

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

by tim » Thu Jan 22, 2026 8:08 pm

https://www.heritage.org/tidalwave
TIDALWAVE is a progressive Artificial Intelligence–enabled model and computer simulation to simulate a protracted conflict between the U.S. and the People’s Republic of China (PRC). TIDALWAVE identifies gaps and deficiencies and corresponding solutions to resolve anticipated shortfalls in our ability to project and sustain the joint force and to exploit adversary vulnerabilities in order to deplete their ability to conduct military operations. The project examines both U.S. and PRC systems anticipated to have the greatest impact on the conflict: fuel and ammunition. Our ultimate aim is to guide national deliberations on how best to deter a war, and project and sustain U.S. and allied forces in a protracted conflict if required, resolve existing deficiencies, and exploit adversary weaknesses.

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

by Trevor » Mon Jan 19, 2026 9:08 pm

Navigator wrote: Mon Jan 19, 2026 3:43 pm Thank you for posting Trump's talking points on why Greenland is so important.

Yes, Greenland is important to Missile Defense. We have a base there to do that already (Thule). The Danes are more than happy to allow us to build even more such bases there. We don't have to own Greenland to do that.

Yes, Denmark on its own would have difficulty defending Greenland. We could, by the agreements already in place, build more bases and station more troops, aircraft and so on there. The Danes would be more than happy for us to spend the money to do that.

BTW, all of the above apply to Northern Canada as well.

As for the EU wanting to control what happens in the Artic, the Norwegians have claim to a significant portion of it. The Canadians even more so. Are we going to try and take Canada and Norway as well? Frankly, that's ludicrous.

The EU is basically NATO without the US or Canada. We belong to NATO as a member of it as a "Treaty Organization". It is meant for common defense. And it is not just for European security, it is for defense against an attack from ANY direction. NATO actually activated for Iraq and Afghanistan.

Yes, Russia, on its own, is no longer capable of attacking another country with a significant military (such as, say, Poland). However, Russia is allied with China, and Europe would have a major problem if a couple of million Chinese troops showed up to bolster the Russians (which is what I believe will eventually happen).

NATO is not dead. But is has been hibernating while the US carries the vast majority of the load. Trump's efforts to get the Europeans to increase defense spending has worked somewhat, but the Europeans, being the liberal socialists that they are, are not going to reduce social spending to increase military spending, until they themselves get attacked.

Russian land based nukes would fly over Greenland and Canada on their way to US targets. But for the past fifty years, the real threat is from submarine launched missiles, which the Russians would launch off of the East Coast, the West Coast, or from the Caribbean. There is no real defense against these things, as the flight times are so short compared to land based missiles. Plus, their trajectories cannot be anticipated, as the launching submarine can change its launch location, whereas we know pretty much where the Russian land based missile silos are (the mobile launchers can obviously also move, but they don't go far from their bases, and if they did, we would track them by satellite).

What you did not get into is the economic situation. Western Europe is a MAJOR trading partner for the USA. Trump is threatening to disrupt trade over Greenland and destabilize a lot of important markets.

Then there is the childishness over the Nobel Peace prize. Yes, Trump definitely deserves it more than Obama (who literally did NOTHING other than give up in Iraq, handing it to Iranian control). Trump actually accomplished the Gaza cease fire, and handled a number of other conflicts quite well. But the Nobel prize is awarded by a committee of committed leftists. They will only give it to people who adhere to their ideology (Obama) and will NOT give it to a conservative, no matter what they do. But, being a sore loser about it is no basis for foreign policy.
Trump could cure cancer, deliver world peace, reveal the secret to immortality, and they still wouldn't give him the Nobel Peace Prize. Obama won it, essentially, for not being Bush, and even he was a little embarrassed at the open fawning.

Greenland is important to missile defense, not to mention its strategic location and natural resources. Problem is, Trump's going about it in the worst way possible, as he has a habit of doing. They'd be willing to let us begin mining operations, add strategic bases, all without causing such friction... but that just isn't his style, sadly.

Hence my feeling that NATO will not be a U.S. ally when this breaks out. We've been splitting into different camps since the War on Terror, especially over the Iraq War. They've always looked down on us and while the Soviet Union was enough to silence this for a while, Russia isn't strong enough. Hopefully, Trump abandoning them will spur them to stand on their own, but we'll have to see.

Of course, China might be in the superior position now, but that can change. They have no ability to stop us from blockading the Malacca Strait, with Japan blockading from the north. We can also bomb their pipeline and refineries, meaning they'd have little choice but to buy from Russia. I guarantee Putin would squeeze every concession from them he can, knowing China would have little alternative but to comply.

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

by Navigator » Mon Jan 19, 2026 3:43 pm

Thank you for posting Trump's talking points on why Greenland is so important.

Yes, Greenland is important to Missile Defense. We have a base there to do that already (Thule). The Danes are more than happy to allow us to build even more such bases there. We don't have to own Greenland to do that.

Yes, Denmark on its own would have difficulty defending Greenland. We could, by the agreements already in place, build more bases and station more troops, aircraft and so on there. The Danes would be more than happy for us to spend the money to do that.

BTW, all of the above apply to Northern Canada as well.

As for the EU wanting to control what happens in the Artic, the Norwegians have claim to a significant portion of it. The Canadians even more so. Are we going to try and take Canada and Norway as well? Frankly, that's ludicrous.

The EU is basically NATO without the US or Canada. We belong to NATO as a member of it as a "Treaty Organization". It is meant for common defense. And it is not just for European security, it is for defense against an attack from ANY direction. NATO actually activated for Iraq and Afghanistan.

Yes, Russia, on its own, is no longer capable of attacking another country with a significant military (such as, say, Poland). However, Russia is allied with China, and Europe would have a major problem if a couple of million Chinese troops showed up to bolster the Russians (which is what I believe will eventually happen).

NATO is not dead. But is has been hibernating while the US carries the vast majority of the load. Trump's efforts to get the Europeans to increase defense spending has worked somewhat, but the Europeans, being the liberal socialists that they are, are not going to reduce social spending to increase military spending, until they themselves get attacked.

Russian land based nukes would fly over Greenland and Canada on their way to US targets. But for the past fifty years, the real threat is from submarine launched missiles, which the Russians would launch off of the East Coast, the West Coast, or from the Caribbean. There is no real defense against these things, as the flight times are so short compared to land based missiles. Plus, their trajectories cannot be anticipated, as the launching submarine can change its launch location, whereas we know pretty much where the Russian land based missile silos are (the mobile launchers can obviously also move, but they don't go far from their bases, and if they did, we would track them by satellite).

What you did not get into is the economic situation. Western Europe is a MAJOR trading partner for the USA. Trump is threatening to disrupt trade over Greenland and destabilize a lot of important markets.

Then there is the childishness over the Nobel Peace prize. Yes, Trump definitely deserves it more than Obama (who literally did NOTHING other than give up in Iraq, handing it to Iranian control). Trump actually accomplished the Gaza cease fire, and handled a number of other conflicts quite well. But the Nobel prize is awarded by a committee of committed leftists. They will only give it to people who adhere to their ideology (Obama) and will NOT give it to a conservative, no matter what they do. But, being a sore loser about it is no basis for foreign policy.

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

by Wolf359 » Mon Jan 19, 2026 1:22 pm

Greenland is vital to America's interests because of missile defense and shipping lanes. Denmark is incapable of defending it and insists that the US do it for them. It is intolerable that the US would have to ask for permission to defend ourselves when no one else can do anything to assist us. And it is not really Denmark, it is the EU. The EU wants to control what happens in the Arctic without having any ability to project power there. As the US is not a member of the EU, why would the US allow the EU to have a say in how we defend ourselves? As for NATO, that alliance is dead, it's purpose no longer exists. Russia has proven it has no ability to conquer any significant amount of territory. Russia can, however, still launch thousands of nukes which would fly over Greenland.

Greenland

by Navigator » Mon Jan 19, 2026 1:01 am

I cannot fathom the reasoning behind Trump's actions regarding Greenland.

Yes, Greenland is very strategic. Sure, the US can defend it much better than Denmark. But, by defense treaties already in place, we could just build more bases there and station more troops and aircraft and other equipment there. The Danes would be more than happy for the US to do that.

Why do we have to actually own the place? Sure it may have some rare earth minerals, but so does California and Texas, and those places are way more accessible.

This whole bit about invading Greenland is most likely hyperbole. But it is putting great strain on the NATO alliance, which is still critical to Western (ie non-Russia, China, Iran) defense.

I have often thought that NATO would somehow shoot itself in the foot, but I figured it would be do to the actions (or rather inactions) of European players like Germany, Spain, the UK or even Turkey.

It would be a monumental mistake for Trump if he actually caused it.

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

by tim » Fri Jan 16, 2026 8:27 am

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l86zUCh5FOg
This Fourth Turning's Market Crash Risks Are 'Exceptional' | Neil Howe
Today's guest has long predicted that widespread systemic change would occur during the 20-teens and 20-20s -- as America and much of the rest of the world experience a replacement of the old order and the birthpangs of a new one.

All of us who have lived through this period and especially the year 2025 that just ended probably find it hard to argue that massive change -- culturally, politically, geo-strategically and economically -- is indeed now afoot.

So how much more of this change still lies ahead?

How disruptive will it likely be?

And what kind of new system does it look like we'll have on the other side?

For perspective, we have the privilege of welcoming back to the program demographer Neil Howe, co-author of the seminal book "The Fourth Turning" and its sequel "The Fourth Turning Is Here".

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