Generational Dynamics World View News

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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

by Trevor » Mon Jan 19, 2026 9:08 pm

Navigator wrote: Mon Jan 19, 2026 3:43 pm Thank you for posting Trump's talking points on why Greenland is so important.

Yes, Greenland is important to Missile Defense. We have a base there to do that already (Thule). The Danes are more than happy to allow us to build even more such bases there. We don't have to own Greenland to do that.

Yes, Denmark on its own would have difficulty defending Greenland. We could, by the agreements already in place, build more bases and station more troops, aircraft and so on there. The Danes would be more than happy for us to spend the money to do that.

BTW, all of the above apply to Northern Canada as well.

As for the EU wanting to control what happens in the Artic, the Norwegians have claim to a significant portion of it. The Canadians even more so. Are we going to try and take Canada and Norway as well? Frankly, that's ludicrous.

The EU is basically NATO without the US or Canada. We belong to NATO as a member of it as a "Treaty Organization". It is meant for common defense. And it is not just for European security, it is for defense against an attack from ANY direction. NATO actually activated for Iraq and Afghanistan.

Yes, Russia, on its own, is no longer capable of attacking another country with a significant military (such as, say, Poland). However, Russia is allied with China, and Europe would have a major problem if a couple of million Chinese troops showed up to bolster the Russians (which is what I believe will eventually happen).

NATO is not dead. But is has been hibernating while the US carries the vast majority of the load. Trump's efforts to get the Europeans to increase defense spending has worked somewhat, but the Europeans, being the liberal socialists that they are, are not going to reduce social spending to increase military spending, until they themselves get attacked.

Russian land based nukes would fly over Greenland and Canada on their way to US targets. But for the past fifty years, the real threat is from submarine launched missiles, which the Russians would launch off of the East Coast, the West Coast, or from the Caribbean. There is no real defense against these things, as the flight times are so short compared to land based missiles. Plus, their trajectories cannot be anticipated, as the launching submarine can change its launch location, whereas we know pretty much where the Russian land based missile silos are (the mobile launchers can obviously also move, but they don't go far from their bases, and if they did, we would track them by satellite).

What you did not get into is the economic situation. Western Europe is a MAJOR trading partner for the USA. Trump is threatening to disrupt trade over Greenland and destabilize a lot of important markets.

Then there is the childishness over the Nobel Peace prize. Yes, Trump definitely deserves it more than Obama (who literally did NOTHING other than give up in Iraq, handing it to Iranian control). Trump actually accomplished the Gaza cease fire, and handled a number of other conflicts quite well. But the Nobel prize is awarded by a committee of committed leftists. They will only give it to people who adhere to their ideology (Obama) and will NOT give it to a conservative, no matter what they do. But, being a sore loser about it is no basis for foreign policy.
Trump could cure cancer, deliver world peace, reveal the secret to immortality, and they still wouldn't give him the Nobel Peace Prize. Obama won it, essentially, for not being Bush, and even he was a little embarrassed at the open fawning.

Greenland is important to missile defense, not to mention its strategic location and natural resources. Problem is, Trump's going about it in the worst way possible, as he has a habit of doing. They'd be willing to let us begin mining operations, add strategic bases, all without causing such friction... but that just isn't his style, sadly.

Hence my feeling that NATO will not be a U.S. ally when this breaks out. We've been splitting into different camps since the War on Terror, especially over the Iraq War. They've always looked down on us and while the Soviet Union was enough to silence this for a while, Russia isn't strong enough. Hopefully, Trump abandoning them will spur them to stand on their own, but we'll have to see.

Of course, China might be in the superior position now, but that can change. They have no ability to stop us from blockading the Malacca Strait, with Japan blockading from the north. We can also bomb their pipeline and refineries, meaning they'd have little choice but to buy from Russia. I guarantee Putin would squeeze every concession from them he can, knowing China would have little alternative but to comply.

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

by Navigator » Mon Jan 19, 2026 3:43 pm

Thank you for posting Trump's talking points on why Greenland is so important.

Yes, Greenland is important to Missile Defense. We have a base there to do that already (Thule). The Danes are more than happy to allow us to build even more such bases there. We don't have to own Greenland to do that.

Yes, Denmark on its own would have difficulty defending Greenland. We could, by the agreements already in place, build more bases and station more troops, aircraft and so on there. The Danes would be more than happy for us to spend the money to do that.

BTW, all of the above apply to Northern Canada as well.

As for the EU wanting to control what happens in the Artic, the Norwegians have claim to a significant portion of it. The Canadians even more so. Are we going to try and take Canada and Norway as well? Frankly, that's ludicrous.

The EU is basically NATO without the US or Canada. We belong to NATO as a member of it as a "Treaty Organization". It is meant for common defense. And it is not just for European security, it is for defense against an attack from ANY direction. NATO actually activated for Iraq and Afghanistan.

Yes, Russia, on its own, is no longer capable of attacking another country with a significant military (such as, say, Poland). However, Russia is allied with China, and Europe would have a major problem if a couple of million Chinese troops showed up to bolster the Russians (which is what I believe will eventually happen).

NATO is not dead. But is has been hibernating while the US carries the vast majority of the load. Trump's efforts to get the Europeans to increase defense spending has worked somewhat, but the Europeans, being the liberal socialists that they are, are not going to reduce social spending to increase military spending, until they themselves get attacked.

Russian land based nukes would fly over Greenland and Canada on their way to US targets. But for the past fifty years, the real threat is from submarine launched missiles, which the Russians would launch off of the East Coast, the West Coast, or from the Caribbean. There is no real defense against these things, as the flight times are so short compared to land based missiles. Plus, their trajectories cannot be anticipated, as the launching submarine can change its launch location, whereas we know pretty much where the Russian land based missile silos are (the mobile launchers can obviously also move, but they don't go far from their bases, and if they did, we would track them by satellite).

What you did not get into is the economic situation. Western Europe is a MAJOR trading partner for the USA. Trump is threatening to disrupt trade over Greenland and destabilize a lot of important markets.

Then there is the childishness over the Nobel Peace prize. Yes, Trump definitely deserves it more than Obama (who literally did NOTHING other than give up in Iraq, handing it to Iranian control). Trump actually accomplished the Gaza cease fire, and handled a number of other conflicts quite well. But the Nobel prize is awarded by a committee of committed leftists. They will only give it to people who adhere to their ideology (Obama) and will NOT give it to a conservative, no matter what they do. But, being a sore loser about it is no basis for foreign policy.

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

by Wolf359 » Mon Jan 19, 2026 1:22 pm

Greenland is vital to America's interests because of missile defense and shipping lanes. Denmark is incapable of defending it and insists that the US do it for them. It is intolerable that the US would have to ask for permission to defend ourselves when no one else can do anything to assist us. And it is not really Denmark, it is the EU. The EU wants to control what happens in the Arctic without having any ability to project power there. As the US is not a member of the EU, why would the US allow the EU to have a say in how we defend ourselves? As for NATO, that alliance is dead, it's purpose no longer exists. Russia has proven it has no ability to conquer any significant amount of territory. Russia can, however, still launch thousands of nukes which would fly over Greenland.

Greenland

by Navigator » Mon Jan 19, 2026 1:01 am

I cannot fathom the reasoning behind Trump's actions regarding Greenland.

Yes, Greenland is very strategic. Sure, the US can defend it much better than Denmark. But, by defense treaties already in place, we could just build more bases there and station more troops and aircraft and other equipment there. The Danes would be more than happy for the US to do that.

Why do we have to actually own the place? Sure it may have some rare earth minerals, but so does California and Texas, and those places are way more accessible.

This whole bit about invading Greenland is most likely hyperbole. But it is putting great strain on the NATO alliance, which is still critical to Western (ie non-Russia, China, Iran) defense.

I have often thought that NATO would somehow shoot itself in the foot, but I figured it would be do to the actions (or rather inactions) of European players like Germany, Spain, the UK or even Turkey.

It would be a monumental mistake for Trump if he actually caused it.

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

by tim » Fri Jan 16, 2026 8:27 am

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l86zUCh5FOg
This Fourth Turning's Market Crash Risks Are 'Exceptional' | Neil Howe
Today's guest has long predicted that widespread systemic change would occur during the 20-teens and 20-20s -- as America and much of the rest of the world experience a replacement of the old order and the birthpangs of a new one.

All of us who have lived through this period and especially the year 2025 that just ended probably find it hard to argue that massive change -- culturally, politically, geo-strategically and economically -- is indeed now afoot.

So how much more of this change still lies ahead?

How disruptive will it likely be?

And what kind of new system does it look like we'll have on the other side?

For perspective, we have the privilege of welcoming back to the program demographer Neil Howe, co-author of the seminal book "The Fourth Turning" and its sequel "The Fourth Turning Is Here".

Iran

by Navigator » Thu Jan 15, 2026 7:33 pm

The most immediate situation is that in Iran. I will post on the Russia situation later, when I have more time to write.

Iran is controlled by a bunch of religious fanatics (the Ayatollahs) and their henchmen (the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps - IRGC). The paramilitary arm of the IRGC is the Basij. Iran reports that Basij numbers about 250,000, but others more reasonably estimate 1-2 million.

From an Australian News Outlet: "Completing the training in Basij is a prerequisite to receiving social privileges… financial bonuses, loans on favourable terms, discounts on religious trips to holy places, social welfare or access to universities," the Journal of Modern Science reported last year.
"Depending on their rank, Basij members also receive financial compensation."

Both the IRGC (600-700K soldiers) and the Basij have no qualms about shooting anybody (I would hope their immediate family is the exception, though I doubt it at this point). They would massacre MILLIONS of other Iranians if that's what it would take to protect their power/priveledge/compensation.

Popular demonstrations only work when the soldiers/police/paramilitary are unwilling to shoot the demonstrators. This is what happened in the Philippines, Eastern Europe and even Russia. It is not what happened in China or multiple times already in Iran. The same probably goes in Cuba, and most likely in Venezuela.

Unfortunately, those opposing these regimes will have to take up arms and start killing the oppressors. This means clandestine activity such as ambushes and assassinations. Arms have to be provided to them in order to do this. And it takes years for these insurgencies to have a chance at overthrowing the established power.

Also, unfortunately, such revolutions are generally led by the underclass who are comfortable with breaking the law. The "middle class", well to do people with careers, are usually extremely hesitant to join such movements. So, if/when the revolution is successful, you can end up with rather unsavory characters running the government. Plus, the revolution has made it acceptable to challenge authority, so the new government has difficulty quelling anarchy.

Basil Liddel Hart, one of the great military theorists of the 20th century, pointed out that guerilla wars and insurgencies generally led to the destabilization of the country so affected for generations. He pointed to what happened in Spain after the Napoleonic Wars, and France post WW2, when in both situations, most of the population of those two countries had been involved in insurgencies against an occupier.

At this point, I don't think there is an alternative outside of supplying arms/ammunition to anti-government forces in Iran. It may soon come to that in Venezuela, where Maduro also set up a pro-Maduro paramilitary.

Iran is NOT going to have a peaceful "orange type" revolution and turn into a US ally anytime soon. It will take quite a while to get rid of the IRGC, and Iran has no democratic tradition to speak of. The best I can hope for is that Iran is neutered by an internal bloodbath.

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

by tim » Thu Jan 15, 2026 1:24 pm

Multiple places in the world where a spark at any time can kick off the coming war.

https://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg ... 200613.htm
As I've written a number of times in the past, I do not expect WW III to begin with some major attack, such as a Chinese invasion of Taiwan or Japan or a missile attack on the United States. Those acts would come later. Major wars begin with small events. In a generational Crisis era, when public levels of nationalism and xenophobia are very high, a small event can be a match that lights an explosive fire.

World War II did not begin with the bombing of Pearl Harbor, nor did it begin with the invasion of Poland.

As I've described in the past, World War II began in 1937 with the Marco Polo Bridge incident. The Marco Polo Bridge is about 15 km south of Beijing in China, and was so named because Marco Polo praised the bridge in the 13th century. In 1937, both Japan and China were deep into generational Crisis eras, and the Japanese and Chinese people really hated each other. On July 7, a small group of Japanese soldiers, stationed near the bridge, took a roll call and found one soldier missing. The Japanese accused Chinese soldiers, also stationed near the bridge in the city of Wanping, of abducting the Japanese soldier. A brief clash was won by the Japanese. There were negotiations, and the situation was settled quickly. (The "abducted" soldier had merely gotten lost in the woods.)

So the two sides negotiated a settlement, but both sides then brought in reinforcements. Within a month there was full-scale war, leading to the Japanese "Rape of Nanking" shortly thereafter.

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

by Trevor » Tue Jan 13, 2026 7:51 pm

If Russia does indeed become our ally, I doubt it'll be until after war has already broken out. Between 1939 and 1941, the Soviets collaborated with the Nazis, planning to split Eastern Europe between them. In fact, if not for Soviet supplies, the German war machine could never have been so successful. Had the USSR chosen to act against them in 1939, Germany could not have launched Barbarossa.

I don't see NATO being an ally. I've been skeptical for a long time and seeing what's happened over Ukraine has made me doubtful they'd do anything once China attacks. Invoking Article V is likely to get a response of: "Screw you, you're on your own!" They'd gotten so used to us being most of the burden that doing it themselves isn't an easy process. It'll take years, if not decades, to establish a truly independent defense industry.

I'm even starting to wonder if this war would look like 1914 and 1939. Russia isn't likely to take much more territory without transitioning to total war, but the energy isn't there among the Russian public. 8% of GDP is about as much as they can muster, and it's still heavily dependent on Chinese components. It's a war they tolerate because they have no other choice, not because this is seen as an existential conflict, however much propaganda tries to convince them. Right now, it's easier to go along because protesting is going to end in death or imprisonment. There's no real threat to Putin's power as things stand, at least so long as the war doesn't hurt those who matter.

There are enough desperate people in Russia willing to take the risks for financial opportunity, and with year-round conscription, they can continue sending cannon fodder. However, this isn't enough unless Ukranian defenders refuse to fight on a large scale. With the kill ratio at roughly 2-1, Ukraine shows no indication of collapse anytime soon, regardless of what Pro-Russian voices are hoping for.

I'm considering the possibility this won't look like the First World War or the Second, because the necessary societal cohesion for total war may not be possible under our current conditions. This can change, of course... but it could end up looking like the Thirty Years' War: a low-intensity world war that lasts a generation. If anything, this would be worse than the alternative because surging nationalism at least allows a society to function. With the Thirty Years' War, all its major participants collapsed into civil war by the end of it, and a war like it would likely do the same to us.

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

by tim » Tue Jan 13, 2026 11:23 am

John originally predicted that Iran would be our ally in the coming world war, as the younger generation is pro-western and doesn't share the worldview of the generation in power that was aging and dying off.

A generational awakening period - Iran is where America was in the 60's.

I remember when John was talking about this around 2008 when lots of people thought this idea was crazy.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... ing-mayhem
Update(0953ET): President Trump on Tuesday morning has called on Iranians to keep protesting in the streets, where clashes with security services have spiraled and turned violent - but in some locations have waned. He's told Iranians to "take over your institutions" - which is essentially a call for coup or armed insurrection.

Trump further said he has canceled all meetings with Iranian officials, after yesterday's reports that the two sides were looking to jump-start diplomacy of official contacts if Tehran leaders cooperate, and don't kill any protesters. But now Trump is doing his typical thing of quickly ratcheting pressure to the max. He's reiterated that HELP IS ON THE WAY - suggesting military intervention could be imminent, in the following Truth Social statement.

Re: Tucker Carlson: Trump has become an imperialist because he believes a major war is coming

by tim » Tue Jan 13, 2026 10:39 am

Navigator wrote: Sun Jan 11, 2026 1:43 pm
FullMoon wrote: Sat Jan 10, 2026 8:25 pm
DaKardii wrote: Sat Jan 10, 2026 5:21 pm Link to the monologue below. Keep in mind that it is over 40 minutes long.

https://tuckercarlson.com/tucker-mono-jan-7

During the monologue, Carlson implies that China will be our main adversary in this war. He also says Russia is the key to determining who will win. Which is why Trump abandoning NATO/Ukraine and making nice with Russia should take top priority. If Trump fails to break Russia away from China, we will lose. Only if he succeeds will we have a chance.
John's analysis as to the Russian side was correct. It depends on how much they and Europe can make amends. At current levels that will take a long time and certainly be in China's favor. The European/Russian rivalry would be best wound down. There is no existential conflict between Russia and Europe. Europe got themselves into a hole by doing similar but much worse than we did. We have lots of options but what have they. We cut their pipeline and they don't even have cheap energy now.
I think that Tucker Carlson is completely in the tank for Russia. The idea of making Russia into a US ally against China is ludicrous. Russia is an aggressor and a full on partner with China.

I have always disagreed with John's take on Russia, and after Putin's invasion of Ukraine I believe that John changed his mind.

European/Russian rivalry is not going to wind down. It is only going to get worse. After the Ukraine, Russia wants the Baltics. Then they want their influence in Eastern Europe back. Russian ambitions are all aimed westward. Russia may actually cede territory in the far east to China in return for assistance in getting more European lands. I believe we will see this when WW3 starts.
During the last fourth turning Russia was our enemy at first. During the Russian Revolution 5,000 American Army troops were deployed in Russia. Russia was allied with Germany while carving up Poland and Russia attacked Finland. On paper Russia and Germany were allies and Russia was our enemy. Germany was always planning on conquering Russia for "living space". Which is not that different from how China views Russia today.

Russia and China have historically been enemies and even if this war ends up with them being allies it will be temporary. The Sino-Soviet split during the cold war suggests how this will happen.

Its right here in the open for everyone to see. Once again, nothing new under the sun. Similiar to how Adolf Hitler wrote of taking Russian lands in his book before the war began even though he had an alliance with Russia on paper.

https://www.newsweek.com/china-is-slowl ... a-11180044
Is China Planning a Russian Land Grab? What to Know

DEC 10, 2025 AT 04:00 AM EST
Recent moves by China reveal it has not forgotten the territory lost to the Russian Far East during its "Century of Humiliation." This has raised speculation that the world’s longest border may be ripe for Chinese encroachment, even as "no limits partners" Beijing and Moscow appear increasingly aligned on the world stage.

Chinese Map Alterations and Border Disputes

The Chinese Ministry of the Environment in 2023 moved to dictate that new official maps must depict cities in this area, such as the Siberian city of Vladivostok, with their official names. Another change was to portray an island at the confluence of the Ussuri and Amur rivers, subject to a long-running dispute and a border agreement in 2008, as entirely Chinese. An uptick in Chinese purchases of farmland and decades-long leases across the border has also raised eyebrows.

Strategic Partnership and Power Imbalance

Meanwhile, Chinese nationalists openly call for the return of territory forcibly transferred to Tsarist Russia by a weakened Qing dynasty during the 19th century. These calls are not echoed by Beijing, which has downplayed the map changes while regularly touting the importance of ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who stood in the place of honor at Xi’s side during the June V-Day military parade in Tiananmen Square.
The alliance also shows cracks that will only be worsened by the coming war:

https://thediplomat.com/2023/03/cautiou ... ia-border/
Cautious Contact on the China-Russia Border

Amid great power competition, life in the China-Russia borderlands reveals the paradoxes underpinning the Beijing-Moscow friendship.
In eastern Russia there is no question over where borders lie: Several outstanding Sino-Russian territorial disputes were finally settled in 2008, and Putin is in no position to revisit this topic today. But this border also remains troublesome, despite signs in early 2023 of its reopening and a wider relaxation of China’s pandemic restrictions. The February 1 meeting between Suifenhe and Ussuriisk officials proposed increasing cross-border commercial traffic, but left unanswered questions over when Russians’ visa-free cross-border access to China would resume. At the time of writing in late February, no conclusive answer has yet been provided on this subject.

This slowness to reopen despite supposedly limitless China-Russia friendship can be read as a sign of a discomfort on each side with too much unregulated contact among people. Once the border does reopen fully, moreover, the current international situation could lead to further complications.

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