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Recession Watch: Spooked For Good Reasons


A widely-followed consumer sentiment index just hit its second-worst level on record:



Why are Americans so spooked? Perhaps it’s the prospect of being replaced by AI. So far in 2025, major layoff announcements include:

Amazon: 14,000 job cuts

UPS: 48,000

Intel: 20,000

Microsoft: 6,000

Target: 1,800

Meta: 600 (from its AI division!)

Salesforce: 4,000

Or maybe it’s that student loan payments have resumed, and for some, it’s one bill too many. See the red line on the following chart:



Or maybe it’s those “car mortgages” that were so popular for a while:



Here Come The Stimmy Checks
With busts looming on multiple fronts, how far off can some form of bailout be? Not far at all, apparently:

Trump floats $2,000 tariff rebate checks: Here’s what you need to know
(CNBC) - Over the weekend, President Donald Trump suggested paying Americans directly for their health-care costs and sending tariff rebate checks to families, not unlike the stimulus payments issued during the Covid-19 pandemic.

In a Truth Social post on Saturday, Trump wrote, “Republicans should give money DIRECTLY to your personal HEALTH SAVINGS ACCOUNTS.”

The president also floated the idea that a tariff “dividend” was possible. “A dividend of at least $2000 a person (not including high income people!) will be paid to everyone,” he wrote in another post Sunday on Truth Social.

Panic Time

Stimmy checks are the most blatant and least effective tool for managing an overindebted economy. They are, however, a good way to telegraph panic in a way that smart investors can understand. Keep stacking:

FullMoon wrote: Mon Nov 10, 2025 12:14 pm

When ever I would ask for any help which wasn't often I was usually told to toughen up and pull myself up by my bootstraps and how I was lucky that I had it better than the poor illegals that were flooding the labor market and devaluing my labor. I worked 2 jobs for most of my life and sometimes I would work 3 jobs. That and a little bit of good luck is how I was able to get ahead, and still past generations were far better off than I am at this age. My brothers and I know what it's like to have a bad injury like a broken hand and still have to push through and keep working because you don't have any other choice.

I didn't "understand" fiscal prudence until I was riding a public city bus and realized I might not have enough money for the next week. I was living in a foreign country that didn't have handouts for the hungry (ironically it's a 'Communist' country PRC).
I live on the 'Left' coast and we've got plenty of Latino workers pretty much everywhere. I personally don't care about how they got here but wish that we had a fair system that lets people in a rational way. Because my ancestors immigrated here too. People who want to come and integrate and make the country better are appreciated. But I'm sure we've all seen that there's actually lots that haven't come to make it better and actually make it worse. It's bad enough that all of the effort and dreams of the founding fathers are being absolutely ruined by their own ancestors. The depressing part of following these things as they go along is that they were predictable and were predicted and now that they're apparent to everyone, there's no glory or happiness in being correct. Cassandra wasn't a happy story but a true story that generations STILL haven't understood.

spottybrowncow wrote: Mon Nov 10, 2025 10:27 am

Navigator wrote: Mon Nov 10, 2025 3:16 am 1. Trump wants to give each citizen (voter) at $2000 check. He says that everyone deserves a portion of the tariffs he set up.

My first thought when I read that he was doing this was that it was to put additional pressure on the Supreme Court to approve tariffs.

When ever I would ask for any help which wasn't often I was usually told to toughen up and pull myself up by my bootstraps and how I was lucky that I had it better than the poor illegals that were flooding the labor market and devaluing my labor. I worked 2 jobs for most of my life and sometimes I would work 3 jobs. That and a little bit of good luck is how I was able to get ahead, and still past generations were far better off than I am at this age. My brothers and I know what it's like to have a bad injury like a broken hand and still have to push through and keep working because you don't have any other choice.

spottybrowncow wrote: Mon Nov 10, 2025 10:27 am

Navigator wrote: Mon Nov 10, 2025 3:16 am 1. Trump wants to give each citizen (voter) at $2000 check. He says that everyone deserves a portion of the tariffs he set up.

My first thought when I read that he was doing this was that it was to put additional pressure on the Supreme Court to approve tariffs.

Navigator wrote: Mon Nov 10, 2025 3:16 am 1. Trump wants to give each citizen (voter) at $2000 check. He says that everyone deserves a portion of the tariffs he set up.

The tariff check would do little to help each person, but would further crater the government's finances. Right now the tariffs are doing good in providing additional government revenue to help abate the run-up of the national debt. Giving everyone $2k is just a way to "buy love" for Trump and improve his approval ratings. Which, btw, are meaningless.