GD Predictions - Mars Lander - Predicting the Future

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Re: GD Predictions - Mars Lander - Predicting the Future

by Higgenbotham » Mon Aug 06, 2012 9:16 am

Reality Check wrote:
Higgenbotham wrote:The only change in behavior that I can see due to the previous disasters...
I know you did not phrase that as a general question. But I am going to take a shot at it anyway.

Learning something, and changing something is not the same thing.

Everyone...learned the bankers ripped everyone off and the politicians can not be trusted...

The Greeks learned they can not trust their own government elites nor can they trust the European elites...

The people in Japan learned they could not trust their own government to tell them the truth nor to protect them...
John wrote:Greece - More and more investors every day are learning that the EU
politicians are competely full of crap...
I agree. I pointed toward the Merkel government having not changed its behavior as evidence that nothing has been learned. But your point in that case would probably be that the people who live under that government have learned something, and that is the right way to look at it. Since that is the case, the change will come in time.

Re: GD Predictions - Mars Lander - Predicting the Future

by John » Mon Aug 06, 2012 8:04 am

With regard to debt, the Boomer/Republican position is reduce debt,
and the Gen-X/Democratic position is increase spending. Both lead to
disaster, because nothing can prevent disaster right now, but the
eventual conclusion will be that debt is bad, re-learned from the
1930s.

Re: GD Predictions - Mars Lander - Predicting the Future

by John » Mon Aug 06, 2012 7:30 am

Dear Higgie,
Higgenbotham wrote: > John, the last 3 major disasters that I can think of are Fukushima
> (2011), the BP Oil Spill (2010), and the Greek Tragedy (2010 and
> ongoing). Thinking of these disasters or choosing some disasters
> that you feel are more appropriate, can you think of anything
> that's been learned in the past 11 years from the series of major
> disasters that have occurred since 9-11, by any generation, in any
> country? Because, seriously, I can't. The only change in behavior
> that I can see due to the previous disasters is to make a more
> concerted effort at denial, lying, coverups, and can kicking as
> soon as there's any hint that a new disaster is unfolding or an
> ongoing one is resurfacing. Case in point last month was the
> Merkel government's response to German debt being put on negative
> watch by Moody's."
Fukushima - Japan's Gen-Xers shut down all its nuclear reactors, and
is now re-learning that it still needs nuclear power. Germany has
gone through a similar re-learning process.

BP - America's Gen-Xers shut down all offshore oil drilling, but
hasn't yet re-learned how allow it. Meanwhile, other countries are
doing it.

Greece - More and more investors every day are learning that the EU
politicians are competely full of crap, and that they have to get
their money out of Greece, Spain, etc. That's why Wall Street is
doing so well.

John

Re: GD Predictions - Mars Lander - Predicting the Future

by Reality Check » Mon Aug 06, 2012 5:35 am

The coming financial crisis and the coming crisis war are going to force the Hero generation, and to some extent, Generation Xers, to make choices.

They will be forced to chose because their very existence will depend on it. That is why it is a crisis.

The hero generation will be forced to go off and fight in the war because the alternative is to lose the war and likely your life.

Of course one of the possible results of going off to fight is to die.

The chosen fixes to the economy may actually make things worse, but not doing anything will be so bad, they will be forced to try something.

After surviving the war and the New Great Depression, those of the Hero generation who do survive, will know in their bones and their guts that they do have the power to change things and they will not fear making changes. What they will fear is allowing that which they just survived to occur again.

Re: GD Predictions - Mars Lander - Predicting the Future

by Reality Check » Mon Aug 06, 2012 5:20 am

Higgenbotham wrote: ... the last 3 major disasters that I can think of are Fukushima (2011), the BP Oil Spill (2010), and the Greek Tragedy (2010 and ongoing). Thinking of these disasters or choosing some disasters that you feel are more appropriate, can you think of anything that's been learned in the past 11 years from the series of major disasters that have occurred since 9-11, by any generation, in any country? Because, seriously, I can't. The only change in behavior that I can see due to the previous disasters is to make a more concerted effort at denial, lying, coverups, and can kicking as soon as there's any hint that a new disaster is unfolding or an ongoing one is resurfacing. Case in point last month was the Merkel government's response to German debt being put on negative watch by Moody's.
I know you did not phrase that as a general question. But I am going to take a shot at it anyway.

Learning something, and changing something is not the same thing.

One can only change that which one has the power to change, and that one knows he has the power to change, and that he knows how to change.

Everyone from the primarily older Tea Party members to the primarily younger Occupy Wall Street movement, and everyone in between, learned the bankers ripped everyone off and the politicians can not be trusted. As an example less than 20% of the U.S. population have a favorable view of Congress.

The Greeks learned they can not trust their own government elites nor can they trust the European elites. They are just evenly split on whether to leave the Euro or trying trusting the European elites one more time.

I will pass on the BP issue.

The Tea Party and the OWS folks actually have plans they are trying to implement to fix it. The Tea Party is attempting to use the ballot box to elect people to Congress to fix the deficit by reducing government spending and reducing the size of government and reducing the control and regulation by government; and the OWS folks believe you can change things by bringing down the existing institutions using civil disobedience and using statism controlled by consensus. Everyone else apparently does not believe they have the power

Everyone knows the banking system is either Ti... Up, Fu..... Up or both. They are just divided on what to do about. Some of the choices are more government regulations, bankruptcy for the failed banks, hang the bankers, other actions, or some combination..

The people in Japan learned they could not trust their own government to tell them the truth nor to protect them. A big shock for the Japanese.

Re: GD Predictions - Mars Lander - Predicting the Future

by psCargile » Mon Aug 06, 2012 1:41 am

Successful landing.

Re: GD Predictions - Mars Lander - Predicting the Future

by Higgenbotham » Mon Aug 06, 2012 1:15 am

John wrote:There's a process going on. Boomers were willing to learn from
Silents -- imperfectly, but they learned. Gen-Xers are unwilling to
learn from Boomers, so they have to re-learn everything on their own,
from disasters. The Millennials are learning along with the
Gen-Xers. The re-learning is the process that's going on now, and will
be going on for the next ten years. Each new disaster will take the
re-learning process one step further.
John, the last 3 major disasters that I can think of are Fukushima (2011), the BP Oil Spill (2010), and the Greek Tragedy (2010 and ongoing). Thinking of these disasters or choosing some disasters that you feel are more appropriate, can you think of anything that's been learned in the past 11 years from the series of major disasters that have occurred since 9-11, by any generation, in any country? Because, seriously, I can't. The only change in behavior that I can see due to the previous disasters is to make a more concerted effort at denial, lying, coverups, and can kicking as soon as there's any hint that a new disaster is unfolding or an ongoing one is resurfacing. Case in point last month was the Merkel government's response to German debt being put on negative watch by Moody's.

I would add that, on the micro scale, learning from Boomers and learning from Silents is as different as night and day. When an X'er screws something up, the first thing a Boomer typically wants to point out is that the X'er screwed up, whereas the first thing a Silent typically wants to do is solve the problem. I should add that the X'ers are no better than the Boomers in that regard.

Re: GD Predictions - Mars Lander - Predicting the Future

by Reality Check » Sun Aug 05, 2012 11:33 pm

John wrote:There's a process going on. Boomers were willing to learn from
Silents -- imperfectly, but they learned. Gen-Xers are unwilling to
learn from Boomers, so they have to re-learn everything on their own,
from disasters. The Millennials are learning along with the
Gen-Xers. .
This puts a different perspective on a story my father once shared about Scott Field Illinois.

I was stationed there at what, at the time, was the HQ of the Military Airlift Command.

My father had also been stationed at the same air base just prior to World War II. The Army Air Corps multi-engine aircraft maintenance school was there prior to World War II.

And that prompted a story.

My father related how no one would listen to the 30 year "brown shoe" maintenance NCOs of the "between wars" army ( the old guys ). My father was the exception. He stayed late to work on engines and go out and talk ( and probably drink ) with the old timers when he was at Scott Field.

Shortly before my father passed away he related other stories. One of which involves how he went from an army recruit to the NCO Maintenance Chief of an entire air wing during war time in just over two years.

He credited being able to keep that job for the duration to listening, watching and learning from those who no else wanted to listen to.

Re: GD Predictions - Mars Lander - Predicting the Future

by Reality Check » Sun Aug 05, 2012 11:08 pm

John wrote:Nasa engineers made complete fools of themselves several years ago,
when a Mars landing failed because software programmers on the
different components used metric and English units, respectively, and
didn't bother to convert. So the Mars vehicle crashed. I'm willing
to bet that they've learned their lesson, and they'll have tested
every line of code every possible which-way. They don't want to look
like idiots again.
John wrote:There's a process going on. Boomers were willing to learn from
Silents -- imperfectly, but they learned. Gen-Xers are unwilling to
learn from Boomers, so they have to re-learn everything on their own,
from disasters. The Millennials are learning along with the
Gen-Xers. The re-learning is the process that's going on now, and will
be going on for the next ten years. Each new disaster will take the
re-learning process one step further.
I also believe it is likely to work, but for a different reason.

I believe the really smart people who chose to go into the space program, rather than, say wall street, are the exception, not the rule.

I understand your argument about re-learning. It sounds kind of like a way to explain away any thing that does not agree with the rule..

But, that does not apply here. You are making a prediction about the future, and that is always a gutsy call.

Re: GD Predictions - Mars Lander - Predicting the Future

by John » Sun Aug 05, 2012 10:37 pm

There's a process going on. Boomers were willing to learn from
Silents -- imperfectly, but they learned. Gen-Xers are unwilling to
learn from Boomers, so they have to re-learn everything on their own,
from disasters. The Millennials are learning along with the
Gen-Xers. The re-learning is the process that's going on now, and will
be going on for the next ten years. Each new disaster will take the
re-learning process one step further.

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