GD Predictions - Mars Lander - Predicting the Future

[Reality Check]

One of the most important measures of a valid scientific theory is the ability to predict the future.

The Mars lander is a complex system of hardware, firmware and software that reportedly must function perfectly to safely land.

The landing system includes 500,000 lines of code ( assumed to mean 500,000 lines of custom software code ) and 76 explosive charges that must all detonate, and all detonate at precisely the correct time in the correct order, for the lander to survive the landing.

It seems clear that this landing system was designed and implemented by Generation X and Baby Boomer engineers.

Will the code, the hardware and the integrated landing system have been adequately tested ?

[John]

Nasa engineers made complete fools of themselves several years ago,
when a Mars landing failed because software programmers on the
different components used metric and English units, respectively, and
didn't bother to convert. So the Mars vehicle crashed. I'm willing
to bet that they've learned their lesson, and they'll have tested
every line of code every possible which-way. They don't want to look
like idiots again.

[psCargile]

I thought the inflatable bouncing system on the other rovers was interesting. Just looking over some of the features and I note it carries a radioisotope thermoelectric generator for power avoiding the problems of dust on solar panels which plagued the others.

I read a short story once were the first man on Mars was a rover maintainer who was always being sent out to do repairs, and was never once credited to being there at all.

[Reality Check]

Nasa engineers made complete fools of themselves several years ago,
when a Mars landing failed because software programmers on the
different components used metric and English units, respectively, and
didn't bother to convert. So the Mars vehicle crashed. I'm willing
to bet that they've learned their lesson, and they'll have tested
every line of code every possible which-way. They don't want to look
like idiots again.

So in order to avoid personal embarrassment Generation Xers and Baby Boomers will invest all the personal time needed and other peoples money to do it right ???

But when it is a little thing like strategic nuclear war, that might threaten the elites own lives and the lives of their loved ones, the elite Generation Xers will not take time to think it through and they will be accident prone?

One could argue that the later is a crisis situation, and the former is just doing ones job, but then how does the recent software engineer caused flash crash valued at a cool 600 Million fit in ?

How does Generational Dynamics help predict that the Mars lander will work as perfectly as needed to safely land the vehicle on Mars ?

[John]

There's a process going on. Boomers were willing to learn from
Silents -- imperfectly, but they learned. Gen-Xers are unwilling to
learn from Boomers, so they have to re-learn everything on their own,
from disasters. The Millennials are learning along with the
Gen-Xers. The re-learning is the process that's going on now, and will
be going on for the next ten years. Each new disaster will take the
re-learning process one step further.

[Reality Check]

Nasa engineers made complete fools of themselves several years ago,
when a Mars landing failed because software programmers on the
different components used metric and English units, respectively, and
didn't bother to convert. So the Mars vehicle crashed. I'm willing
to bet that they've learned their lesson, and they'll have tested
every line of code every possible which-way. They don't want to look
like idiots again.

There's a process going on. Boomers were willing to learn from
Silents -- imperfectly, but they learned. Gen-Xers are unwilling to
learn from Boomers, so they have to re-learn everything on their own,
from disasters. The Millennials are learning along with the
Gen-Xers. The re-learning is the process that's going on now, and will
be going on for the next ten years. Each new disaster will take the
re-learning process one step further.

I also believe it is likely to work, but for a different reason.

I believe the really smart people who chose to go into the space program, rather than, say wall street, are the exception, not the rule.

I understand your argument about re-learning. It sounds kind of like a way to explain away any thing that does not agree with the rule..

But, that does not apply here. You are making a prediction about the future, and that is always a gutsy call.

[Reality Check]

There's a process going on. Boomers were willing to learn from
Silents -- imperfectly, but they learned. Gen-Xers are unwilling to
learn from Boomers, so they have to re-learn everything on their own,
from disasters. The Millennials are learning along with the
Gen-Xers. .

This puts a different perspective on a story my father once shared about Scott Field Illinois.

I was stationed there at what, at the time, was the HQ of the Military Airlift Command.

My father had also been stationed at the same air base just prior to World War II. The Army Air Corps multi-engine aircraft maintenance school was there prior to World War II.

And that prompted a story.

My father related how no one would listen to the 30 year "brown shoe" maintenance NCOs of the "between wars" army ( the old guys ). My father was the exception. He stayed late to work on engines and go out and talk ( and probably drink ) with the old timers when he was at Scott Field.

Shortly before my father passed away he related other stories. One of which involves how he went from an army recruit to the NCO Maintenance Chief of an entire air wing during war time in just over two years.

He credited being able to keep that job for the duration to listening, watching and learning from those who no else wanted to listen to.

[Higgenbotham]

There's a process going on. Boomers were willing to learn from
Silents -- imperfectly, but they learned. Gen-Xers are unwilling to
learn from Boomers, so they have to re-learn everything on their own,
from disasters. The Millennials are learning along with the
Gen-Xers. The re-learning is the process that's going on now, and will
be going on for the next ten years. Each new disaster will take the
re-learning process one step further.

John, the last 3 major disasters that I can think of are Fukushima (2011), the BP Oil Spill (2010), and the Greek Tragedy (2010 and ongoing). Thinking of these disasters or choosing some disasters that you feel are more appropriate, can you think of anything that's been learned in the past 11 years from the series of major disasters that have occurred since 9-11, by any generation, in any country? Because, seriously, I can't. The only change in behavior that I can see due to the previous disasters is to make a more concerted effort at denial, lying, coverups, and can kicking as soon as there's any hint that a new disaster is unfolding or an ongoing one is resurfacing. Case in point last month was the Merkel government's response to German debt being put on negative watch by Moody's.

I would add that, on the micro scale, learning from Boomers and learning from Silents is as different as night and day. When an X'er screws something up, the first thing a Boomer typically wants to point out is that the X'er screwed up, whereas the first thing a Silent typically wants to do is solve the problem. I should add that the X'ers are no better than the Boomers in that regard.

[psCargile]

Successful landing.

[Reality Check]

... the last 3 major disasters that I can think of are Fukushima (2011), the BP Oil Spill (2010), and the Greek Tragedy (2010 and ongoing). Thinking of these disasters or choosing some disasters that you feel are more appropriate, can you think of anything that's been learned in the past 11 years from the series of major disasters that have occurred since 9-11, by any generation, in any country? Because, seriously, I can't. The only change in behavior that I can see due to the previous disasters is to make a more concerted effort at denial, lying, coverups, and can kicking as soon as there's any hint that a new disaster is unfolding or an ongoing one is resurfacing. Case in point last month was the Merkel government's response to German debt being put on negative watch by Moody's.

I know you did not phrase that as a general question. But I am going to take a shot at it anyway.

Learning something, and changing something is not the same thing.

One can only change that which one has the power to change, and that one knows he has the power to change, and that he knows how to change.

Everyone from the primarily older Tea Party members to the primarily younger Occupy Wall Street movement, and everyone in between, learned the bankers ripped everyone off and the politicians can not be trusted. As an example less than 20% of the U.S. population have a favorable view of Congress.

The Greeks learned they can not trust their own government elites nor can they trust the European elites. They are just evenly split on whether to leave the Euro or trying trusting the European elites one more time.

I will pass on the BP issue.

The Tea Party and the OWS folks actually have plans they are trying to implement to fix it. The Tea Party is attempting to use the ballot box to elect people to Congress to fix the deficit by reducing government spending and reducing the size of government and reducing the control and regulation by government; and the OWS folks believe you can change things by bringing down the existing institutions using civil disobedience and using statism controlled by consensus. Everyone else apparently does not believe they have the power

Everyone knows the banking system is either Ti... Up, Fu..... Up or both. They are just divided on what to do about. Some of the choices are more government regulations, bankruptcy for the failed banks, hang the bankers, other actions, or some combination..

The people in Japan learned they could not trust their own government to tell them the truth nor to protect them. A big shock for the Japanese.