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20-Jan-18 World View -- Turkey's troops mass on border, preparing to invade northern Syria


The growing conflagration in northwest Syria

** 20-Jan-18 World View -- Turkey's troops mass on border, preparing to invade northern Syria
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e180120



Contents:
Turkey's troops mass on border, preparing to invade northern Syria
Collapse of the Russian 'peace process'
The growing conflagration in northwest Syria


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, Syria, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Kurds, People's Protection Units, YPG, Kurdistan Workers' Party, PKK,
Afrin, Manbij, Border Security Force, BSF,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Russia, Vladimir Putin, de-confliction zones, Astana, Kazakhstan,
Eastern Ghouta, Idlib, Khmeimim airbase, Bashar al-Assad

The regions of Afrin and Manbij are not connected. They are separated by a region including including Azaz and Al Bab, controlled by Trukish forces. The only way around goes through territory controlled by Assad's forces. The significance of this is that US forces are present in and around Manbij, but not in or around Afrin. An invasion of Manbij would put Turkish forces in direct conflict with US forces. An invasion of Afrin would not.

So far Turkish backed forces have clashed with US forces and US backed forces have clashed with Turkish forces. However, no direct engagement between the Turkish military and the US military has been admitted or proven. I therefore conclude that Turkish forces will almost certainly attack Afrin, but almost certainly not attack Manbij.

Guest wrote: > The regions of Afrin and Manbij are not connected. They are
> separated by a region including including Azaz and Al Bab,
> controlled by Trukish forces. The only way around goes through
> territory controlled by Assad's forces. The significance of this
> is that US forces are present in and around Manbij, but not in or
> around Afrin. An invasion of Manbij would put Turkish forces in
> direct conflict with US forces. An invasion of Afrin would not.

> So far Turkish backed forces have clashed with US forces and US
> backed forces have clashed with Turkish forces. However, no
> direct engagement between the Turkish military and the US military
> has been admitted or proven. I therefore conclude that Turkish
> forces will almost certainly attack Afrin, but almost certainly
> not attack Manbij.

I understand your logic, but at times like this it's necessary to ask
whether logic or emotions are in charge. Turkey under Erdogan has
been increasingly nationalistic and xenophobic for years, with an
extreme surge starting with the attempted coup. Today, the Turkish
media give the impression that the government is losing control of its
own senses, which is not uncommon during a generational Crisis era.

Here's an article by Ibrahim Karagül, the powerful highly
nationalistic editor of Yeni Safak, and a strong supporter of Erdogan:

https://www.yenisafak.com/en/columns/ib ... es-2041290

Karagül explains that the situation is an existential crisis for
Turkey, and it's necessary for Turkey to attack not only Afrin and
Manbij, but also targets east of the Euphrates.

So the news today is that Turkey's warplanes are conducting airstrikes
on Afrin. Does that mean that the Turkish/FSA ground invasion will go
forward? Does that mean that Russia has withdrawn its forces? If
not, is Erdogan counting on the fact that the airstrikes will motivate
the Russian forces to flee?

You say that Turkey will not attack Manbij because there are American
forces in the region. If Russian forces didn't stop the airstrikes on
Afrin, will American forces stop the airstrikes on Manbij?

If Turkish and FSA ground forces do end up attacking Manbij, will that
stoke Turkish nationalism and xenophobia so much that the ground
forces will have to continue across the Euphrates?

As you point out, the logic of the situation says no, no, no, no, no.
The question in my mind is whether actions will be ruled by logic or
by pure emotions.

Friedrich Nietzsche: "Insanity in individuals is something rare -
but in groups, parties, nations and epochs, it is the rule."

The Russians are saying that they've moved their 300 troops out of the
region, indicating that they're giving tacit approval to the Turkish
operation. According to al-Jazeera, Turkey has "activated" the FSA,
but Turkish ground forces have not yet crossed the border. Erdogan
says that Manbij will be next.

John's predictions have come to pass. As of now the Kurds are under attack with all but 5 airstrike targets being struck. Civilians fleeing towards Turkey will have made poor decisions. Very possibly American military plans to install a 30,000 militarized protection zone may have precipitated the attack at this time. Pentagon "strategists" have talked out of at least 2 sides of their mouths, first throwing Kurdish independence under the bus and now supposedly defending them...a study of geographic situation ethics. Were I a Kurd anywhere, I'd be looking for cover to escape the armed bus.

John wrote:

Guest wrote: > The regions of Afrin and Manbij are not connected. They are....

I understand your logic, but at times like this it's necessary to ask
whether logic or emotions are in charge. ...

The question in my mind is whether actions will be ruled by logic or
by pure emotions.

Friedrich Nietzsche: "Insanity in individuals is something rare -
but in groups, parties, nations and epochs, it is the rule."

Logic is merely the tool of emotions, used to justify conclusions already drawn.

Genocide and psychopathy (insanities) are perfectly logical. The logic USED is perverse, but it is still "logic".

Anonymity, and it's leader-oriented variant "Party Affiliation", breeds "get 'er done!" (efficacious and efficient) logic to support "the goal".

The "goal" is to relieve the anxiety of the relatively "new" chaos, and a "one party state" (simplified and homogeneous) is what the "new" logical chain will be constructed to support.

(( Re: Nietzsche, continue to checkout the insights of Jordon B Peterson: https://jordanbpeterson.com/ https://www.youtube.com/user/JordanPetersonVideos ))


ʻE aloha ʻoukou! <shaka!>