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8-Apr-15 World View -- Bashar al-Assad's Syria army showing signs of collapse


US speeds up weapons deliveries to militias in Yemen

** 8-Apr-15 World View -- Bashar al-Assad's Syria army showing signs of collapse
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e150408



Contents:
Bashar al-Assad's Syria army showing signs of collapse
Why do Awakening era civil wars always fizzle?
US speeds up weapons deliveries to militias in Yemen


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Idlib, Alawites, Shias, Sunnis,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front, Yarmouk refugee camp, Lebanon,
Sabra, Shatila, Homa, Dresden, Tokyo, Émile Geamil Lahoud, Russia,
Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Houthis, Aden, Antony Blinken

ok, so what does generational dynamics predict would be the after effects (not just in syria but in the entire region) of al assads army collapsing

sound awake wrote:ok, so what does generational dynamics predict would be the after effects (not just in syria but in the entire region) of al assads army collapsing

The answer to that is mostly political, so it's impossible to predict.
The only outcome we can be sure of is total chaos. Beyond that, the
following is my rambling guess:

Right now, ISIS is in the lead to become the major power in Syria, and
indeed, they're closing in on Damascus from the south.

So let's suppose ISIS takes over in Syria. What they would like is a
Sunni version of Iran's 1979 Great Islamic Revolution, where the
country's entire population unified behind the hardline Shia clerics.

But "unified populations" are only possible during generational Crisis
eras. Syria today is in a generational Awakening era, and if you
think back to America in the 1960s-70s, then you can imagine how
unlikely it is that Syria's population will be unified behind any sort
of government. In fact, the whole point of today's article is that
even the Alawites aren't unified behind the current al-Assad
government.

So what would happen to ISIS in such an environment?

One analogy is deadly viruses. If a virus wants to create a pandemic,
it can't just kill the infected person, because then the infected
person won't be around to spread it. It has to ameliorate its
functions by becoming less severe and less deadly, letting more people
live comfortably so that they can spread it.

So, applying that analogy to ISIS, they'd have to ameliorate their
behaviors in order to make themselves acceptable to the larger Sunni
population. In doing so, they would also make themselves more
acceptable to the Saudis and other Sunni nations.

But even so, the existence of an ISIS government would panic Iran,
Russia and the West, leading to increased secular tensions in the
Mideast, and possibly a secular war within Syria itself.

In the meantime, a secular war in Yemen is worsening every day.

All we need now is some triggering event to make the whole thing
explode. One example would be an attack on an oil tanker the Bab el
Mandeb strait or Strait of Hormuz. That's one of many examples of
events that would FORCE retaliation, and could spiral into a larger
war.

John:
Has it gotten bad enough in Syria to make this a "Fourth Turning Reset" like happened to the Palestinians?

Tom Mazanec wrote: > Has it gotten bad enough in Syria to make this a "Fourth Turning
> Reset" like happened to the Palestinians?

The mechanics of a first turning reset require that there be a
generational crisis war, and that it reach a crisis war climax. The
difference with an "ordinary" crisis war is that one of the
participants was not in a Crisis era, but was in a Recovery, Awakening
or Unraveling era. In this case, that participant will behave during
the war according to its generational era, and its people will not
attain the degree of bloodthirsty genocidal violence that a population
in a Crisis era will. However, since it's a crisis war, that
participant can expect to be the victims of the other other side's
bloodthirsty genocidal violence, and so after that climax is reached,
they'll have a first turning reset.

In the case of Syria, you have a bloodthirsty, genocidal leader, but a
population that is in an Awakening era and very definitely does not
want to be fighting this war. ISIS has succeeded in recruiting
thousands of jihadists from other countries, many of them in a Crisis
era, but so far there's been nothing resembling a crisis war climax,
and I don't expect one for a while -- at least until the sectarian war
spreads to the entire Mideast. Once the entire Mideast (and the
world) explodes, then there will be a war that generates a crisis war
climax, and then Syria, or what's left of it, will experience a first
turning reset.

To John:

Al-Assad is a member of the Shia Alawite race, which broke away from mainstream Shia Islam in the ninth century.

First, "race" is supposed to be a pseudo-scientific concept.
Second, even if you accept the concept of race the Alawites aren't a race but an ethno-religious group: Alawism is a religion but Alawites have for so long married within their own folk they have become a distinct ethnic group.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethnoreligious_group

But I think it may soon become ancient history: if really a third of fighting age male Alawites are now dead, they are toast. Demographic dynamics won't be nice with that ethnic group.

The mechanics of a first turning reset require that there be a
generational crisis war, and that it reach a crisis war climax. The
difference with an "ordinary" crisis war is that one of the
participants was not in a Crisis era, but was in a Recovery, Awakening
or Unraveling era. In this case, that participant will behave during
the war according to its generational era, and its people will not
attain the degree of bloodthirsty genocidal violence that a population
in a Crisis era will. However, since it's a crisis war, that
participant can expect to be the victims of the other other side's
bloodthirsty genocidal violence, and so after that climax is reached,
they'll have a first turning reset.

In the case of Syria, you have a bloodthirsty, genocidal leader, but a
population that is in an Awakening era and very definitely does not
want to be fighting this war. ISIS has succeeded in recruiting
thousands of jihadists from other countries, many of them in a Crisis
era, but so far there's been nothing resembling a crisis war climax,
and I don't expect one for a while -- at least until the sectarian war
spreads to the entire Mideast. Once the entire Mideast (and the
world) explodes, then there will be a war that generates a crisis war
climax, and then Syria, or what's left of it, will experience a first
turning reset.

I wouldn't count him out just yet, either. Iran's got billions to send him heavy weapons with thanks to the sanctions beginning to lift. His own people may be starting to turn against him, but at the same time, they also fear what's going to happen to them if he's overthrown and their fate is in the hands of ISIS. Considering the massive brutality Assad's committed, they have good reason to fear revenge.

I admit, I've always thought that something similar happened to Russia in World War II, having their timeline reset. Even if it's only 5% of the time, if you have 10,000 timelines, that's still 500 occasions where that kind of event has happened.
Personally, I'm wondering if the Clash of Civilizations world war will end up uniting the entire planet onto a single generational timeline.

Oh, and if you're interested in a laugh, you have people claiming that the Syrian war and the growing regional one was sparked by climate change. http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news ... e-drought/

Thank you for the informative posts.