Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

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Putin has a one time, rapidly expiring, pass to take back, militarily, whatever portions of the Soviet Empire he believes he can take and hold in the current international political environment.

This may be his last chance. Since the pro-Russian President of Ukraine fled the country in fear, Ukraine and Moldova have been changing the facts on the ground. Border controls are being implemented between Ukraine and the Russian Troop occupied "Trans-Dniester" region of Moldova, on three sides of tiny Trans-Dniester, and between Trans-Dniester and the rest of Moldova, on the remaining border of tiny Trans-Dniester. Modlova and Ukraine are moving ahead with integration into the European Union. Integration into NATO by Ukraine and Moldova in the future has NOT been ruled out by Treaty.

It does appear Putin is hesitating.

Reality Check wrote: > It does appear Putin is hesitating.

Several analysts have pointed out that Russia's economy is so bad and
the military is in such bad shape that they can't afford to commit so
many resources to Ukraine for too much longer.

Others say that he's just waiting a few days for the politics to cool
down before he advances.

Putin, unlike Obama, is playing with a full deck of geopolitical cards.

Diplomacy, the credible threat of the use of Military Force, and Military Force are all tools Putin has in his tool box to use any time he wishes.

No one would say at this point that things like international law, scolding or whining are going to make Putin hesitate.

Obama, Merkel and Cameron have already volunteered, in repeated public statements, aimed at Russia that they will never use the threat of force nor actual force to oppose a Russian invasion of Ukraine.

There are military, political, economic and diplomatic reasons Putin may be delaying invasion, but there is a practical limit on how long troops can be kept in the field at peak performance, ready to invade. On the other hand, in Desert Shield and Desert Storm it reached a point where the U.S. troops were ready to go anywhere and do anything, in the way of delivering Leviathan violence, just so they could go home.

It is always better to accomplish what is needed with the threat of force, than actual use of force, the cost is much less.

Killing a dog to scare the monkeys has it's value, but Ukraine, geographically, is more like a Gorilla than a Monkey, and so far fear alone has not work.