Economic Crises and Generational Theory
Posted: Mon Mar 09, 2009 6:23 pm
Much has been made on John's site and this forum regarding the current economic troubles and how they relate to Generational Dynamics. This seems straightforard enough--generational panics and crashes occur during 4th Turnings when the survivors of the previous crises all retire or die all at once. But while generational cycles are localized (subject to timeline merging, of course), it seems economic cycles are not. I can't seem to jive this.
If economic cycles were identical to generational cycles, then an economic crisis would happen in evey society's 4th Turning, without exception. I am not sure this is the case. John frequently mentions the five major generational panics and crashes throughout history, which seemed to encompass the entire world. The current economic crisis (originating in the USA) has spread around the world. Are countries that are in 1st, 2nd, and 3rd Turnings immune to this? THis doesnt seem to be the case.
Furthermore, did countries that recently went through war crises also have economic crises? Did Iran, Iraq, and Lebanon have economic collapses as part of their crisis wars in the '80"s? I don't know.
I am guessing the following (I have evidence for none of this, just pondering):
--Generational economic crises affect the entire world, but are never caused by countries not in 4th Turnings.
--Economic crises occur as a part of every country's crisis, but depending on the importance of that country to world macroeconomics, the crisis may or may not spread to other countries.
--When a worldwide generational panic and crash occurs, countries that are not in crisis periods have better economic infrastructure in place to handle the crisis, and are not as affected as countries that are in crisis periods. Times may be hard, but an economic crisis that affects a country in an Awakening wouldnt lead to a war, necessarily.
--Worldwide Generational Panics and Crashes occur during the 4th Turning of the country that is the dominant global economic power at the time. Consider:
--Tulipomania--Holland, dominant economic power at the time
--South Sea Bubble--Great Britain, dominant economic power at the time
--Bankruptcy of French Monarchy--France, dominant economic power at the time
--Panic of 1857--Germany, dominant economic power at the time
--1929 Wall Street Crash--USA, dominant economic power at the time
--Subprime Mortgage Crisis--USA, dominant economic power at the time
--It seems the reason that Generational Panics and Crashes have occurred roughly every 70-80 years is because Holland, Great Britain, France, Germany, and the USA are all on the same generational timeline. Would the timing of these crashes have differed if, say, the Congo had become the dominant economic power by the time of its crisis in the 90's?
Once again, all of these are just guesses--the last two are probably the weakest. Just meant to spur discussion.
If economic cycles were identical to generational cycles, then an economic crisis would happen in evey society's 4th Turning, without exception. I am not sure this is the case. John frequently mentions the five major generational panics and crashes throughout history, which seemed to encompass the entire world. The current economic crisis (originating in the USA) has spread around the world. Are countries that are in 1st, 2nd, and 3rd Turnings immune to this? THis doesnt seem to be the case.
Furthermore, did countries that recently went through war crises also have economic crises? Did Iran, Iraq, and Lebanon have economic collapses as part of their crisis wars in the '80"s? I don't know.
I am guessing the following (I have evidence for none of this, just pondering):
--Generational economic crises affect the entire world, but are never caused by countries not in 4th Turnings.
--Economic crises occur as a part of every country's crisis, but depending on the importance of that country to world macroeconomics, the crisis may or may not spread to other countries.
--When a worldwide generational panic and crash occurs, countries that are not in crisis periods have better economic infrastructure in place to handle the crisis, and are not as affected as countries that are in crisis periods. Times may be hard, but an economic crisis that affects a country in an Awakening wouldnt lead to a war, necessarily.
--Worldwide Generational Panics and Crashes occur during the 4th Turning of the country that is the dominant global economic power at the time. Consider:
--Tulipomania--Holland, dominant economic power at the time
--South Sea Bubble--Great Britain, dominant economic power at the time
--Bankruptcy of French Monarchy--France, dominant economic power at the time
--Panic of 1857--Germany, dominant economic power at the time
--1929 Wall Street Crash--USA, dominant economic power at the time
--Subprime Mortgage Crisis--USA, dominant economic power at the time
--It seems the reason that Generational Panics and Crashes have occurred roughly every 70-80 years is because Holland, Great Britain, France, Germany, and the USA are all on the same generational timeline. Would the timing of these crashes have differed if, say, the Congo had become the dominant economic power by the time of its crisis in the 90's?
Once again, all of these are just guesses--the last two are probably the weakest. Just meant to spur discussion.