Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

First mark on the 2007 and 2011 ten year charts is the first major stock market high of the year. Second mark is the high of the year.

One guess. At some point the 10 year will back off a little (this might be a logical place for that to happen) and give the market some breathing room to rise to its first major high of 2014, as happened in 2007 and 2011 when the 10 year backed off a little. If that happens, how it happens may give some useful information. After that it probably gets a lot harder. That may end up being the high if rates then go over 3% and keep moving higher. If they bump up against 3% and keep falling back for awhile the market may continue higher.

Another guess. The move back to the prior high in the 10 year that is being seen now is similar to late May and early June 2007.

Bigger picture. TNX means the interest rate on the 10 year US government note. For example 29 on the right hand scale on the chart would be 2.9%.

One interesting aspect of this is that the economy is presently behaving similarly to April 2010 in some ways and the QE programs were in effect in both instances. In April 2010 there was a known end point to QE whereas now there is not.

aedens wrote:http://finviz.com/forex.ashx

The forex markets were behaving strangely during the move up to the April 2010 high in the stock market. The euro fell and the dollar rose for some time as the stock market continued higher.
Some notes:

Oil
86.54 April 6, 2010 high
82.98 April 20
85.17 April 29 secondary high

Oil and the 10 year both made a high near the end of December 2013. This may compare to oil and the 10 year both making a high the first week of April 2010.

The next couple weeks are likely to be insanely difficult to figure out.

Funds of funds are mutual funds that primarily hold and invest in shares of other mutual funds. The most popular type of these funds is hybrid funds—a little more than three-quarters of funds of funds’ total net assets were in hybrid funds in 2012. Hybrid funds of funds invest their cash in underlying equity, bond, and hybrid mutual funds.

Assets of funds of funds have grown rapidly over the past decade. By the end of 2012, the number of funds of funds had grown to 1,156, and total net assets were nearly $1.3 trillion About 60 percent of the net inflow to funds of funds since year-end 2002 is attributable to increasing investor interest in target date funds (also known as lifecycle funds) and lifestyle funds (also known as target risk funds). The growing popularity of these funds, especially for retirement investing, likely reflects their automatic rebalancing features. In addition, target date funds often are used in defined contribution plans when participants are automatically enrolled, particularly since the Pension Protection Act was passed in 2006. Target date funds follow a predetermined reallocation of risk over time, and lifestyle funds maintain a predetermined risk level.

In 2010, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) significantly reformed Rule 2a-7, a regulation governing money market funds. Among other requirements, these reforms required money market funds to hold significant liquidity and imposed stricter maturity limits. One outcome of these provisions is that prime funds have become more like government money market funds. To a significant degree, prime funds adjusted to the SEC’s 2010 amendments to Rule 2a-7 by adding to their holdings of Treasury and agency securities. They also boosted their assets in repurchase agreements (repos). A repo can be thought of as a short-term collateralized loan, such as to a bank or other financial intermediary.

http://www.icifactbook.org/fb_ch2.html

By definition, the market itself has a beta of 1.0 so the ratio to fund to funds to underlying equity and there claim of the practice a standard index is used.
The choice of the index need not reflect the portfolio under question in there own words.

How many claims on the ten year fiat and they still complain about a barbaric relic. Would be impolite to convey those words here so we have Exeter's pyramid for Legion.

I argue for a form of limited government that protects our rights to life, freedom and the property of individuals. As things stand now, our system of government is the enemy of those basic rights. I'm afraid that the concept of world social justice has never had any meaning whatever. We will never again be able to get sufficient growth of the current economy to eliminate or even markedly reduced unemployment. GATT NAFTA, and now TransPacific Parnership (TPP),with the current hope of growing the economy to solve unemployment are doomed to failure so wake up to the next predicated cycle and scale to it now which is you alone. The promise of competing in the global economy is a hoax perpetrated upon the working and unemployed people of this country because over time a nation needs to buy and sell overseas in roughly equivalent amounts. Those who think we can continue to have business as usual will use increasingly desperate means. If some among you fear taking a stand because you are afraid of reprisals from customers, clients, or even government, recognize that you are just feeding the crocodile hoping he'll eat you last. What we need is neither anti-socialism nor anti-communism but an open positive endorsement of that system to which we owe all the wealth that distinguishes our age from the comparatively straitened conditions of ages gone by.

aedens wrote:We will never again be able to get sufficient growth of the current economy to eliminate or even markedly reduced unemployment. NAFTA, GATT, and hope of growing the economy to solve unemployment are doomed to failure.

The simple fact is that anyone who works for a large organization has an inherent conflict of interest. Any time they are faced with a choice between what’s good for the public and what’s good for their employer, self-interest dictates that they will choose the employer. It doesn’t matter whether someone works for a government, trade union, corporation, bank, or university. Revealing the truth about dangerous, illegal or unethical behavior – even anonymously – might damage the organization, placing their livelihood at risk. Most people won’t take that chance.

The problems we face now are not the result of shadowy cabals, they are the result of countless individuals making perfectly rational and understandable decisions to protect their jobs. Isn’t that why the trend is irreversible? It’s a downward spiral: the worse things get, the more people will do anything to keep their jobs, causing things to get even worse.

Example as a headline in the news today: U.S. asks Supreme Court not to extend Catholic contraception exemption.

Any government who even ask that is simply insane. Democrats and Republicans in rising percentages are bad people and the vast majority of people who sent them.

https://duckduckgo.com/?t=ous&q=fabianism

using a cautious strategy of delay and avoidance - theory advocating state ownership of industry - established by gradual reforms within the law -

The Window at the LME and you subjects.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fabian_Wi ... d_recovery

remould it nearer to the hearts desire it the motto

I have no issue of my garden providing the means of production in a free verbal contract to bake bread
in the works of our God given gift of the means of production under his Sun. Our contract is our own business
in the medium of exchange we deem. Also under the sun we provide the most complicated services man
has ever devised from the analog to digital age so dues exist with that contract and Caesar is dead.
We are not the impediment to thought in caring for others. The simple thought are ones who are uncaring to each other
who consider the government over the market since there is no third solution.
As for those who consider what was and is under most hard hats you covet some Stewards of the garden consider when you avoided
measures to prevent what was you never cared to consider was is.

Government is paid for by the private sector period. Whether by borrowing money which sucks resources out of the bond market or by printing money which impoverishes private sector savers by keeping interest rates artificially depressed or by old-fashioned taxation, the government finances its spending by taking from the private sector. It is just that simple and the private market will vanish as will you when the tyrants control every facet since it is not moral hazard but moral ineptitude of voters.

We resist circles and walk draggin the line. I will increase our meager production since the Parable of the Sower
cannot be stopped and will get the girls to increase the daily bread output next season to they can get others to opportunity's
if they just need some simple gas money in a tight spot. We can try to avert those pictures and salvage
the harvest if that can be done for our knowing why. I do not care what they think on the human storage industry
we have now.

http://www.libreoffice.org/

I hold mdb the crowning achievement of satire.

http://www.beckershospitalreview.com/le ... -2013.html

http://www.beckershospitalreview.com/le ... ndate.html

B noted: Those of us working MA have already seen the increase in premiums and co-pays and the changes in insurance to increase the cost of drugs and with the changes to flexible spending, more out of pocket charges are being paid by the middle class. I had an argument with a man about the flexible spending allowance and he said “why should you get a tax reduction to buy aspirin? ” This guy was on medicare. I also work for a medical device manufacturer and this 3% tax increase will be passed on to the buyers who will pass it on to the patients. Another tax increase through convoluted government stupidity. Insure the uninsured is fine but doing it through penalizing those with insurance and the ability to earn a living typical of this administration and since it doesn’t affect them ..no harm no big deal.


Hidden taxes in and of IT "inflation targeting" will continue to destroy what is left and is claiming more. Another 130 locally are not on the list above who join the wasting and the Calvary is not coming to save you.
Good news today it warmed up to -10

http://donttrack.us/

http://www.timesofisrael.com/iranian-fi ... b-killers/

http://www.voltairenet.org/article178638.html

People do not know what the tea party is as much as Americans know the difference between small l or big L politics
as wage arbiters or sticky wages as phase three is being unleashed.


GATT NAFTA, and now TransPacific Parnership (TPP),with the current hope of growing the economy to solve unemployment are doomed to failure so wake up to the next predicated cycle and scale to it now which is you alone. The promise of competing in the global economy is a hoax perpetrated upon the working and unemployed people of this country because over time a nation needs to buy and sell overseas in roughly equivalent amounts. Those who think we can continue to have business as usual will use increasingly desperate means. If some among you fear taking a stand because you are afraid of reprisals from customers, clients, or even government, recognize that you are just feeding the crocodile hoping he'll eat you last. What we need is neither anti-socialism nor anti-communism but an open positive endorsement of that system to which we owe all the wealth that distinguishes our age from the comparatively straitened conditions of ages gone by.
Most of these thought are from Acton and the principles of a free market. What we see coming indeed you are not prepared for. GD can only note the rate of confusion since Americans know the differences on why we understand the cost of not having the Constitution. As noted before those who think for themselves are under attack. Americans indeed have larger issues between the ears.

"4th July, 1817, 42d year," [Bennington] Vermont Gazette, July 8, 1817, p. 2: "..."let your motto be 'eternal vigilance is the price we pay for liberty.'"

The soil my Grandfathers are buried in.

As we note the seven sisters are back as the truth of the valley of the dry bones.

As John noted --- Russia has brought this violent blowback on itself, by providing enormous amounts of the heavy weapons to the Shia/Alawite al-Assad to use to exterminate Sunni women and children in Syria. This has caused Sunni jihadists to declare that it's their sacred duty to help the oppressed people in Syria, making Syria the center of jihadist activity in the Mideast, and inflaming sectarian tensions throughout the region. Jamestown and Reuters and Ria Novosti

A few note we have three windows this year to watch for in our opinion only. It makes absolutely no difference now what the Taxpayer, and I use the word in irony "think".
Those who don't learn from history deserve exactly what is coming to them.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2DCwafIntj0

http://articles.latimes.com/keyword/nonaligned-nations

Just another iteration of ignorances and resources on a finite planet and I see no Senate names on the actual list below.

http://icasualties.org/Iraq/index.aspx http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/12/3 ... 77559.html

Running From A Lion... Into A Bear... Bitten By A Snake. Amos listened and written was is so will you?
What sorrow awaits you who say, "If only the day of the LORD were here!" You have no idea what you are wishing for. That day will bring darkness, not light.
They will simply decimate themselves and indeed pray for peace. Hope is all we have with illusions of countless actors who cannot hear or see what is already written.

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2013/wp13266.pdf

Rhetoric is wearing thin as the seven sisters adorn new garments.

The distinction between external debt and domestic debt.

Crude Oil 93.89 +0.22 +0.23%
Natural Gas 4.3200 +0.0200 +0.47%
Gold 1227.00 -2.60 -0.21%
http://finviz.com/news.ashx
http://www.eia.gov/special/alert/east_c ... 7_2014.pdf

The yen extended losses while Australia’s currency slipped 0.2 percent versus the dollar. Gold, silver and platinum dropped a second day. Gas futures added 0.6 percent while oil in New York rose 0.4 percent to $94.03 a barrel.

What we need is neither anti-socialism nor anti-communism but an open positive endorsement of that system to which we owe all the wealth that distinguishes our age from the comparatively straitened conditions of ages gone by. We are sending some out as lambs to the wolves. Wish them well.
http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/20 ... s-promises

http://www.safehaven.com/article/32330/ ... -in-silver

perched water http://deflationland.blogspot.be/

Deeper water than the eyes of youth.

http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/ ... n-and-now/

https://duckduckgo.com/?t=ous&q=fabianism

using a cautious strategy of delay and avoidance - theory advocating state ownership of industry - established by gradual reforms within the law -

i.e. walking in circles

http://donny-allen.us/2012/10/23/ill-ni ... b-johnson/
http://donny-allen.us/2012/10/23/democr ... l-clinton/

Alfred Marshall would shake his head in utter disbelief at this point in time.
There is no modern man other than the level of acepted avarice and by there fruit they shall be known.

As T noted some time back as we know here the problem is not what Keynes wrote, but how it has been perverted (sic) for expropriation or pork politics.
Keynes in his original thesis suggested that Government should be only THE LAST RESORT, and that persistent use of Tax conduits to warp Demand will lead to economic scarring in both industries dependant on Government largesse to cover their own structural deficits & malinvestment for ego projects vs. real-return IRR. You can crank out all the goods in the world, even invent a damn Fusion reactor but it won't mean shit if people lack the knowledge and purchasing power to actually use the damn thing. He even sourced 'new energy projects' in his lectures as a case study in where plowing gobs of capital will permanently screw up both the consumption habits of people and how they view Government. Go figure (How's the Ethanol subsidies working out for MENA food inflation and gasolines prices these days ?
During those periods of growth, and when G should not be needed the G should be kept to a minimum in the GNP (GDP didn't exist yet) and I & S should be the key drivers for L's consumption. If G does anything it's only role should be as a kick starter, with immediate repayment for projects where there is zero immediate economic revenues, such as National Railroads / Infrastructure vs. Regional cartels and more importantly building a war chest of Funds or SWF for when shit hits the fan. IMF and by extension World Bank is exactly this, a policy instrument to be only used for when countries are on the Occam razor of nationalist redistribution or blowout debts due to rampant government ego building.
That last sentence did not sit well with Keynesians public policy schools which did not like the whole aspect that their mighty policy wonk work must sit on the shelf for 90% of business cycles. So they just assumed that the market is in constant economic turmoil, and government must be constantly in a state of intervention. Thus giving them relevance & so, the cottage industry of Keynesians schools was born post-1940.

And so, here we are since the first republicans here noted kaisers social security program makes better soldiers since ceasar got his from under the bridges thus coming back to cross the rubicon as Americans walk in circles with liberty unable to be defined but by few. Meanwhile the steam engine and countless labor saving devices made another sticky wage pool obsolete.

As we noted before the cool aid from the source: asymmetric paternalism, states that paternalism should be invited if it bestows large benefits on those who make errors in judgment while imposing little or no harm upon those who are fully rational. While some may argue that this benefit to shortsighted consumers comes at the expense of retailers, it can be posited that correcting these errors in judgment enhances economic efficiency to the benefit of both parties involved. Given that achieving such change is a difficult process, it is helpful to understand the dynamics of an individual’s desires and the strategies that can effectively control them, AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2003.

And so, the Austrians reflect the corruption of the regulatory bodies does not shake his blind confidence in the infallibility and perfection of the state; it merely fills him with moral aversion to entrepreneurs and capitalists. No one should expect that any logical argument or any experience could ever shake the almost religious fervour of those who believe in salvation through spending and credit expansion. The final outcome of the credit expansion is general impoverishment. By short-circuiting the price mechanism and forcing people into economic lives contrary to their own chosing, central planning destroys the capital base and creates economic randomness that eventually ends in killing prosperity.

Not hard to see with our own eyes as we noted before why it was tested for a mercury content from the asymmetric paternalism cults
so no standard can be uttered.

“It’s ironic that the people who need health coverage the most and can least afford it are the ones who will be totally left out in the cold,” Ron Pollack, the executive director of Families USA, the national organization for health care consumers, told The Fiscal Times last fall.

No they found a way not to pull teeth and appear respectable.