Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

Interesting article worth OCRing and pasting in full, Higgie:

https://twitter.com/ukarlewitz/status/3 ... 92/photo/1

For more than 25 years, Robert Morrow has used "vibration analysis" to
predict major moves in the stock market, many times with
near-preternatural accuracy.

The octogenarian former electrical engineer with 38 patents has done
it well enough to earn both top rankings in Timer Digest market-timing
surveys and several Barron's mentions, starting in 1990, when Morrow
predicted the Dow would bottom out in the fourth quarter of that year
at 2366. The market sank to 2365. In the world of market timing,
that`s called hitting the bull's eye. Oh, he also predicted the 2007
market crash.

Now Morrow, who studied vibrations in mechanical structures for
patterns that would portend structural failure, is detecting a
decidedly sour vibe from the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index, using
daily closing prices. "A bear market is imminent, within days," says
Morrow, who sells his research to a small cadre of institutional
clients through Robert Morrow Institutional Advisory in Bradenton
Fla. A 20% drop, a common definition of a bear market, would cut the
S&P by 338 points, leaving it well below its recent 1690, at 1352.

Stocks have been on a tear since 2009, and the consensus thinks the
rally will continue at least until the year end. But Morrow begs to
differ. Earlier this year he argued the S&P would suffer six
corrections, with the first occurring on June 20, with a drop to
1598. The S&P closed at 1588 that day. Five to go. The next
correction, he maintains, will be to 1542. Not so groovy.

Higgenbotham wrote: As you can probably tell, I was caught a little off guard by this large drop in new home prices having happened so soon.

If a buyer has $X per month budgeted to pay a mortgage and interest rates double then the price he can afford to pay is almost half what it was. So the rapid rise in interest rates over the last 3 months just has to make house prices go down.

New Hussman is out. Looks like he is expecting the market to go down.

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc130729.htm

http://finviz.com/map.ashx?t=geo

Russel will take some profits and energy will buy collars to hedge.
Red and Blue whats the difference.

http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?f=geo_peru

vincecate wrote:

Higgenbotham wrote: As you can probably tell, I was caught a little off guard by this large drop in new home prices having happened so soon.

If a buyer has $X per month budgeted to pay a mortgage and interest rates double then the price he can afford to pay is almost half what it was. So the rapid rise in interest rates over the last 3 months just has to make house prices go down.

The fact that the interest rate rise was very rapid probably had something to do with it. After 2005, toward the end of the last price rise, many buyers switched to low interest rate ARMS and other creative financing, which kept things going for awhile even as interest rates rose, but more slowly than recently. There was one deal I did where the buyer offered to pay a higher price if I would finance the down payment, which I did. I'm not involved in the real estate market now so it's hard to tell exactly what might be different this time. Buyers and lenders may be more wary of risky financing this time. I'd like to see some confirming existing home sales data before coming to a conclusion that there is a new trend.

WTI for September delivery was at $104.36 a barrel, down 34 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 1:25 p.m. Sydney time.

http://shortsqueeze.com/stock_short_squeeze_alert.php snack food alert, let me know when your done tossing lighter fluid sso we can go forth,

smaller it is every day indeed. http://www.faz.net/aktuell/feuilleton/d ... 92374.html

Finally, the “external” shadow banking subsystem refers to the credit intermediation process of diversified broker-dealers and a global network of
independent, nonbank financia l specialists that includes captive and stand-alone finance companies, limited-purpose finance companies, and asset managers.
http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/epr/ ... 13adri.pdf
While much of the current and future reform efforts are focused on remediating the excesses of the recent credit bubble, we note that increased capital and liquidity standards
for depository institutions and insurance companies are likely to increase the returns to shadow banking activity. For example, as pointed out in Pozsar (2011), the reform effort
has done little to address the tendency of large institutional cash pools to form outside the banking system. Thus, we expect shadow banking to be a significant part of the financial
system, although almost certainly in a different form, for the foreseeable future. ty t

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=10miTUnHmwg

John wrote:Interesting article worth OCRing and pasting in full, Higgie:

https://twitter.com/ukarlewitz/status/3 ... 92/photo/1

For more than 25 years, Robert Morrow has used "vibration analysis" to
predict major moves in the stock market, many times with
near-preternatural accuracy.
Stocks have been on a tear since 2009, and the consensus thinks the
rally will continue at least until the year end. But Morrow begs to
differ. Earlier this year he argued the S&P would suffer six
corrections, with the first occurring on June 20, with a drop to
1598. The S&P closed at 1588 that day. Five to go. The next
correction, he maintains, will be to 1542. Not so groovy.

===========================================================================================================================

Montreal, July 6, 2011 Bob Morrow, Bud Kress, Bob Ingle...A warning! My private analysis suggests that we are making a top for the stock market within the next several weeks. It exceeded my upside target which I put out 15 months ago. But that is not what should concern investors, two superb analysts that work exclusively with institutional clients and private investors and whom I consider to be among the best, are projecting a very negative period in front of us. Engineer and holder of 37 patents, Robert Morrow of Bradenton, Florida, who has just been again named as the number one Market Timer for both the long term and short term categories, suggests that we are now within two percent or so from an important market top-which he measured and projected to me ten months ago. Bob will be confirming his mathematically based forecast shortly. By the way, Bob has also been rated between number one and two by Timer’s Digest for gold. And yes, he is quite positive on the gold market with expected and normal corrections to occur in the precious metals.

https://timerdigest.com/

Automated Trading Strategy Review – Crude Oil Futures in Commodities, Technical Analysis
http://www.swingtradingdaily.com/2013/0 ... QApSY.dpuf

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QDN1PgVw0t4

Ride on
Ride on, got myself a one-way ticket
Ride on
Ride on, going the wrong way
Ride on, gonna change my evil ways
Ride on, one of these days
One of these days

http://americandictators.blogspot.com/2 ... berty.html
http://gulagbound.com/39896/chokwe-lumu ... militants/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uKVp-atyiVA

This is hilarious.


http://investmentwatchblog.com/bankrupt ... obamacare/


BANKRUPTCY SOLUTION: OBAMACARE
July 29th, 2013

Obamacare / Bankruptcy / Detroit Looks to Health Law to Ease Costs

As Detroit enters the federal bankruptcy process, the city is
proposing a controversial plan for paring some of the $5.7 billion it
owes in retiree health costs: pushing many of those too young to
qualify for Medicare out of city-run coverage and into the new
insurance markets that will soon be operating under the Obama health
care law.

Officials say the plan would be part of a broader effort to save
Detroit tens of millions of dollars in health costs each year, a major
element in a restructuring package that must be approved by a
bankruptcy judge. It is being watched closely by municipal leaders
around the nation, many of whom complain of mounting, unsustainable
prices for the health care promised to retired city workers.

Similar proposals that could shift public sector retirees into the new
insurance markets, called exchanges, are already being planned or
contemplated in places like Chicago; Sheboygan County, Wis.; and
Stockton, Calif. While large employers that eliminate health benefits
for full-time workers can be penalized under the health care law,
retirees are a different matter.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/29/us/de ... c=rss&_r=1&