Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

A couple other charts that are not quite as similar up to the present, but on a further move down could be more similar in their aftermath than what was seen in 2011, as that disaster hit Japan, which was beneficial to the US for a few months as production shut down in Japan boosted US sales. The small bounces after the trendline breaks comparable to Friday's small bounce after the trendline break are pointed to on the charts.

As noted before stock buybacks will be utility to go private since the market has a function that is timeless. I feel that view Higg interpets that, so we will see soon enough. We are carefully looking for yeild and garnered that mindset, since the technicals and fundamental do not ground the reality of the debasements. No need to regulate the HFT macro parasites since they will be be extinct which leaves the speculators that will be plain and apparent over time. Dr. Koo has a paper out and will take the effort to consider his thoughts. I think he understands the landscape and context better than many. I feel he cares. The majors are seeing the headwinds much more clearly now in direct context to the malinvestments of improper allocations. The traction is apparent because the Consumers understands better than they wish to admit on the facts of debt yoke and intent of abuses from these jackals. Like I conveyed they are a memory to us now.

Inflation does not make it cheaper to contract new loans; it makes it, on the contrary, more expensive by the appearance of a positive price premium. If inflation is pushed to its ultimate consequences, it makes any stipulation of deferred payments in terms of the inflated currency cease altogether. And there we have why the Consumer with a brain will not incur it since we understand it better than they can articulate. Human Action understand better than the elected drones on value.

Cognizance of these facts provides a key for a correct appraisal of the role which Lord Keynes’s doctrines played in the years between the first and second World Wars. Keynes did not add any new idea to the body of inflationist fallacies, a thousand times refuted by economists. His teachings were even more contradictory and inconsistent than those of his predecessors who, like Silvil Gesell, were dismissed as monetary cranks. He merely knew how to cloak the plea for inflation and credit expansion in the sophisticated terminology of mathematical economics. The interventionist writers were at a loss to advance plausible arguments in favor of the policy of reckless spending; they simply could not find a case against the economic theorem concerning institutional unemployment. In this juncture they greeted the"Keynesian Revolution" with the verses of Wordsworth: “Bliss was it in that dawn to be alive, but to be young was very heaven.” It was, however, a short-run heaven only. We may admit that for the British and American governments in the ’thirties no way was left other than that of currency devaluation, inflation and credit expansion, unbalanced budgets, and deficit spending. Governments cannot free themselves from the pressure of public opinion. They cannot rebel against the preponderance of generally accepted ideologies, however fallacious. But this does not excuse the officeholders who could resign rather than carry out policies disastrous for the country. Still less does it excuse authors who tried to provide a would-be scientific justification for the crudest of all popular fallacies, viz., inflationism. Mises

This quote is from a few weeks ago. The chart of 1929 below traces the current path of the stock market in black relative to where it was in 1929, as had been postulated here a few weeks back.

Higgenbotham wrote:April 19 (which is 6 months opposite October 19 on the calendar -the date of the 1987 crash) is a date in history that is known for bad things happening. Some recent examples are:
April 19, 1993 Waco Branch Dividian
April 19, 1995 Oklahoma City
April 20, 1999 Columbine
April 20, 2010 BP Oil Spill

For some reason, when bad things are about to happen, I've observed that the masses will engage in similar patterns of behavior, and the stock market is the best record of this. It may be that this time the stock market will be the thing in which the tragedy occurs.

Let's see how this one goes. In the 47 year cycle I noted awhile back, the harder selling began to hit the stock market in the second half of April 1966. The 1825 Panic occurred in April, and the collapse of the 1637 Tulip Mania ended on May 1, according to most accounts (1825 being 4 47 year cycles back and 1637 being 8 47 year cycles back).

Something else I mentioned awhile back was the 83.5 years between the major bubbles (Tulip and South Sea). The obvious answer is to go forward 83.5 years from September 3, 1929. The less obvious answer is that the market sold off, then made a lower peak on October 11, 1929 and 83.5 years from that day is April 11, 2013. If that were to line up with other cycles (it does), it might work, whereas March 3, 2013 doesn't line up with anything else that I am aware of. If the Fed is pushing this thing for all it's worth, the less obvious answers might be the right ones.

The Fed did push it for all it was worth, as Bernanke created another sensation with the "accidental" early release of the Fed meeting minutes, and that drove the market up to an April 11, 2013 all time high. If this chart is correlated correctly (not saying it is but it looks right to me) the generational crash could begin next week.

That matches our previous cluster date note. I will recheck the date on that.

The 2 areas that are circled both show a weak up day before the selling resumed. Friday's up day was weak and if the correlation is right the selling should resume early next week, preferably on Monday.

Higgenbotham wrote:The 2 areas that are circled both show a weak up day before the selling resumed. Friday's up day was weak and if the correlation is right the selling should resume early next week, preferably on Monday.

Yea page 779 views -

http://www.scribd.com/fullscreen/137092 ... trctibvjd4
The newly announced easing program, which seeks to double the monetary base in two years’ time, appears at first glance to be very aggressive. Japan already has a much larger monetary base (relative to GDP) than western economies, and it comes as little surprisethat overseas analysts were shocked to hear it would be doubled again.
http://www.safehaven.com/article/6759/t ... k-of-japan
https://duckduckgo.com/?q=korean+view+on+boj+printing

In a few years the U.S. will be near 20 trillion in the hole. That alone gives me the reason not to sell. I don't care how low it goes, just makes a buying opportunity for me. As long as the U.S. keeps printing dollars, and spending money they don't have I will not sell.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=10miTUnHmwg

Falò delle vanità

I predict the generational panic will start tonight and tomorrow.

I don't believe the onset of this panic can be predicted but this is my best shot at picking the place where it looks most likely. Up to this point, I believe I've only put forth "the top in the stock market could be here or it could be there" type of comments.

If the panic doesn't start here, I'll be like the rest of the bears who used to post here and won't have much more to say about it.

Higgenbotham wrote:I predict the generational panic will start tonight and tomorrow.

I don't believe the onset of this panic can be predicted but this is my best shot at picking the place where it looks most likely. Up to this point, I believe I've only put forth "the top in the stock market could be here or it could be there" type of comments.

If the panic doesn't start here, I'll be like the rest of the bears who used to post here and won't have much more to say about it.

If you turn out to be right, then you'll be world famous.

John wrote:If you turn out to be right, then you'll be world famous.

We've already discussed who gets anointed and you have to be a member of the tribe in good standing to get that accolade.