Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

I seen your point Higg. One day early on my last trade. Better than the window I missed in November.
I was content from my dec1 to feb13 window. I can see some drain on gld to other hard regional assets.
It should drift itself out rather soon.

George Lindsay said “Low-Low-High Counts are usually accurate within a margin of one or two days. This is their point of superiority. Many seem to work to the exact day, or even hour.”

http://books.google.com/books?id=sT4cEP ... dar&f=true
http://www.timeanddate.com/date/dateadd ... ad=107&aw=
Could be 103.

Arch Crawford has a "potential" crash between February 23 and 28. I can see that happening so will mention it. There's an audio where he discussed it. Click the icon under his picture.
http://www.crawfordperspectives.com/

The past 3 days of activity look a lot like February 20-22, 2007 before there was a mini crash. I think this time it could be a big one.

http://blog.markdcook.com/?p=589
http://blog.markdcook.com/?p=585

"The lack of volatility is a danger signal because low volatility builds energy which has to be released."

I agree with this. Last week was about the narrowest range in 6 years, if not the narrowest range. Nearly the same thing occurred in February 2007.

http://www.city-journal.org/2013/23_1_calpers.html

Slowly drifting out of dxy, compression trade not a issue to assets.
Americans are full retard.

Later in the book, page 131, it says Lindsay himself used the low of June 25, 1962 (referred to as the overt important low) and not June 26, 1962. This brings the LLH to the actual high of February 13 last week if the intraday low of October 20, 1987 is used. Since Lindsay used June 25, 1962, it's probable he would have also used October 20, 1987.
http://books.google.com/books?id=sT4cEP ... dar&f=true
http://www.timeanddate.com/date/duratio ... 20&y2=1987
http://www.timeanddate.com/date/dateadd ... d=9248&aw=
February 13 also falls within the window of the average 107 day count from early November.

"In the future, therefore, to gauge how the descent is going, one should not be taken in by statistics. The crucial measure of economic health will be the evidence of genuine innovation that people experience in their everyday lives. If some major new item appears in one’s home, comparable to the vacuum cleaner, the video recorder, or the microwave oven, one can assume that the dark age is getting further away, perhaps by a quarter of a century or more. On the other hand, one may find it difficult to identify what is driving the stock market. One’s own consumption may be of mostly transient pleasures, and one may worry whether one’s work is really making a positive contribution to the commonweal. In that case, the economic descent will be proceeding unchecked."

This is from The Phoenix Principle and the Coming Dark Age, written 12 years ago. Thought it worth repeating as the stock market approaches its all time high.

The monetary leakage we noted a few pages back will appear. Between malinvestment of projects and roads to nowhere and
no positive direction the churning of dead assets and just what progress has been made?

Bruce sees it also as we did on the strain on nonproductive churning of dead capital.

context of the view we circled coming http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/v ... 570#p17869

As noted "When the bones of one sub population have been picked clean, they move onto the next."
We could pretty up the verbiage as we have before and the G-20 has no solution since as we note
the time has past.

“The ultimate test of a moral society is the kind of world that it leaves to its children.”
Dietrich Bonhoeffer

jan29: For now a rotation, and walking to private equity. The gentlemens fire wall.
(a) acount is waiting for one target and moving on another from may. The core focus "emphasis of conversation" going
was based to what condition is the rolling stock "looting and not maintenance to bump price" so watch it closely now on who ignores.
One position from May came in quicker than we assumed. Also the Canadians are printing in excess some feel.

On review we are leaving some assets in CAN and actually move incrementally more.

Meanwhile: http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/v ... 540#p17800

As we trend Jan25: Public market destruction: another bifrucation and select asset stripping ongoing. "Successful" (surviving) companies will continue to buy back stock until they effectively go private. The rest will go to zero for stripping. The public float will be a fraction of what it is today. ZIRP is causing the public equity market to select pick equity, now over eight percent of the market and growing. It will continue to exist as an asset class so it will trade at a discount (risk premium). It will be available, and a vehicle to build and maintain wealth, just not you. Private equity will be the only real equity and there will be a velvet rope. You are not invited, and for the always, obtuse way thinking you have been noted. Keep stacking since they will make the money on the way out to fund what is allowed to survive. The disconnect has started, pay attention. These facets will surface more as we move closer to the end of the decade.

http://blog.markdcook.com/?p=591
http://uamconsult.com/book_606_chapter_ ... ofits.html
"His annual returns in the six years since then have ranged between 30 percent and a stratospheric 1,422 percent. These statistics are based on defining percent return as annual dollar profits divided by beginning year equity, a conservative definition that understates ****** true performance, because he frequently withdraws profits from his account but never adds funds. For example, in his low-return year (based on our definition of percent return), his withdrawals during the year exceeded his starting capital. **** provided me with his account statements for his most recent four years. During this period, he was profitable on 87 percent of all trading days, with one-third of the months showing only winning days."

http://carlfutia.blogspot.com/2013/02/top-imminent.html

Danger was foreseen by John Locke:

But in Governments, where the Legislative is in one lasting Assembly always in being, or in one Man, as in Absolute Monarchies, there is danger still, that they will think themselves to have a distinct interest, from the rest of the Community; and so will be apt to increase their own Riches and Power, by taking, what they think fit, from the People. ["The Second Treatise, of Civil Government," in Two Treatises of Government, edited by Peter Laslett, Cambridge University Press, 1960, 1988, §138, boldface added]
"A distinct interest" is now the whole story of Democrat politics. It is thus not surprising that one of the brainstorms of Democrat politicians is the "full time" legislature. This was accomplished in California under Democrat Party boss Jesse Unruh (d.1987). The idea was to create a "professional" body of law-makers, who would then, of course, be all the better and wiser for it. http://www.city-journal.org/2013/23_1_calpers.html
Now, of course, California is close to financial collapse, hemorrhaging jobs and businesses, while Texas, where the legislature only meets for five months every two years, has a budget surplus, with more jobs created there in 2008 than in the whole rest of the country put together. Texas, in short, is America, while California is a France wanna-be.

http://www.reuters.com/video/2013/02/11 ... nel=117851

Talking his book but by 2020 you better learn a few facts. These idiots here flushed three generations. Politicians are another cost basis.
Like we said, and watched some slowly walk away. Percentages of change. Wind in your face, leave... we are...

Those of you who are in the "hyperinflation camp" (and you know who
you are) should take a look at this article on commercial digital
currencies. They give Kenya as an example where the commercial
"M-pesa" currency in Kenya that has "been transformational and added a
new level of velocity to payments in Kenya, [and] it’s also created a
digital currency that the government can no longer control as easily."

Keep in mind that Kenya is at the beginning of a generational crisis
era (like the U.S. in the early 2000s), and so this may be Kenya's
version of the Nasdaq bubble and the credit bubble.

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/02/18/1 ... urrencies/