Financial topics

[Higgenbotham]

Getting away from charts and numbers, the thing that struck me as being odd recently was how the market ignored the 0.1% decline in GDP. Had military spending not been cut, the GDP would have grown some - I think about 1.2%. It seemed like the reaction was - oh, it's just military spending, doesn't really matter. It doesn't? Military is not part of the US economy? There aren't any defense companies in the stock exchange? The military doesn't buy anything? The cuts stopped last quarter? For people to say that a reduction in GDP due to military doesn't matter is pure fantasy, pure bubble mentality. Real estate always goes up, you know. That was the thinking at the end of the last bubble. Then it was real estate never goes down much. It doesn't?

[John]

> Getting away from charts and numbers, the thing that struck me as
> being odd recently was how the market ignored the 0.1% decline in
> GDP. Had military spending not been cut, the GDP would have grown
> some - I think about 1.2%. It seemed like the reaction was - oh,
> it's just military spending, doesn't really matter. It doesn't?
> Military is not part of the US economy? There aren't any defense
> companies in the stock exchange? The military doesn't buy
> anything? The cuts stopped last quarter? For people to say that
> a reduction in GDP due to military doesn't matter is pure fantasy,
> pure bubble mentality. Real estate always goes up, you know. That
> was the thinking at the end of the last bubble. Then it was real
> estate never goes down much. It doesn't?

I remember thinking that too. They were talking about the GDP on
CNBC, and it was nothing to worry about because it was just cuts in
defense spending. The airheads seem to believe that welfare payments
help the economy, while defense spending has no effect on anything.
It apparently is beyond their grasp that defense spending creates a
lot of jobs, both in and out of the military, and those jobs will go
away if defense spending goes away, just the same as if General Motors
had shut down.. Come to think of it, I guess it's no problem. Then
the airheads can just use the money to make welfare payments to the
new groups of unemployed. I have an idea. Let's just end all work in
America, and use the money we save to make welfare payments to
everyone.

[aedens]

Think tactical, no gain is no loss. I keep hearing bond bubble. Stock and stack get over it.

[Higgenbotham]

No gain means interest rates go up and investors flee bonds which boosts stocks very temporarily, then investors flee stocks - my opinion. Also, you can clear malinvestment with zero growth - if you don't have a debt bubble.

[aedens]

No gain means interest rates go up and investors flee bonds which boosts stocks very temporarily, then investors flee stocks - my opinion.

That is called a risk premium and wall street wailing for more debasement as qe. To be honest they are vipers and we covered it.

http://senatorfeldman.typepad.com/senat ... abyss.html

http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/v ... 001#p18001

Old news to some of us my brother.

[Higgenbotham]

The market flash crashed after they got their $85 billion in QE on December 12, so that alone wasn't enough. Bonds had been falling since mid November, probably as growth dipped below zero at that time. I think by year end the politicians knew that they had better piece a deal together, or else. In fact, I think I heard Boehner say that explicitly.

[aedens]

The national government has caused the common man to think they lie to us all the damn time so trust is shattered. FUD only goes so far and really the average american gets punched in the nose the liberal warm and fuzzy feeling goes away. I do not think we have a defense issue, we have imposed debt design governmental issue. Mind you the burn rate to eliminate bad people is just a numbers funtion since they control information. I read if they have 60 million die they could care less as they lift up others from these damn spillover nazi's. Franklin was right we have three decisions on faith and we do care about that since it is your problem do not make it ours, and we hang togeather or we hang separatly. No reason these people need ndaa to keep poking sticks at us since I think overall we are just as capable to see the facts. The blue and red pill do not need to remind us on life boat ethics since I think overall we get it better than they wish to extol. We are not blind and the sheriff can take care of issues and really we need to find better friends and lay it on the line with some of them. I gravitate the the thought The office is growing a set as going the middle ground as we asked from day one. Meet us there as moderation includes thinking Americans. Really the tarp program written in 1983 actually was the remnants of the tent they proclaim, and truly I doubt many democrats wish people to get up at noom and eat fruit loops on our dime either. Both sides need to get the hell out of our way and if our friends need a hand with a few drones in good intel let em RIP.

[Higgenbotham]

Stock dividends and earnings are based on the sustainability of the bond bubble. Economic growth can sustain the bond bubble a little more at the margin. It's hard to guess what the particular fantasy is that drives the current bubble mentality but if I had to guess it's twofold, the first part (as previously stated) was that some have bought into the idea that rising interest rates mean there is economic growth over the horizon and the second part (not previously stated) is some have also bought into the idea that the private sector can actually absorb the unemployed that lose jobs in the public sector. Like I've said before, the herd will believe the most preposterous fantasies as long as prices are going UP. Price convinces. I agree with John. In this environment, there won't be any ex-military finding work. They will either work in the military or collect aid for the most part. I remember when Clinton cut the military in the early 90s. Those people had a tough time getting aborbed into the labor force. This time they won't get absorbed.

[aedens]

I think we can watch the dialog run either way about now. They garner the fact we are tired of partizan relegated impaired employees and the letter does matter even as they push multi whateverisms to attain the path of regional constructs underway. Both wings are the problem and this is not a this decade issue to facts. Point truly is they rather could care less. It is not a negative connotation market since some are moving forward and some are not. Thats there problem as we break even for now in theory. ZIRP was a bad idea and TARP old news in circles of thought. From there as we noted over countless periods the white flags are always the first to fund problem regions and the first to get bailed out and this is the Office of moral hazzard. Old touched on a note to forward its not like we twisted there arm for a contract either for goods or services. The zones developement are confusion points for some and opportunity's for others and myself I will not invest in government sponsored enterprise since they one thing in common.
Asset Theft http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/12e9f32e ... abdc0.html
We have consistantly warned here on energy margin constructs and adjusted as such. You touched on a important point on the herd will believe.
I think the White House can cowboy up and protect the vunerable old and very young and still get he point across on the offsets coming.

[aedens]

And here we have the fact of the matter from t

“Putin’s gold strategy fits in with his resource nationalism, statist agenda,” said Tim Ash, head of emerging- market research at Standard Bank Plc in London. “It’s kind of a defensive play, but it worked, right?” Ash said in an interview in Moscow. “You need luck in politics and business, and clearly the guy has it.”

No luck IMO just what we have seen since for thousands of years on intrinsic values. Also, they, as we need some luck on water, wheat ,and weather and we see the dxy up as we already knew and the market holding as we converse today. We noted the monkey business for some time. Also we understand nafta was a olive branch to prevent left leaning going even further down in the swirl and safe harbour acounting practices. I agree partially to the bond issuance thought map and the coming season for convertable swaps. We need to narrow things over some time for sure since deficits are onerous debt to common law from repressionary policy. The currency shorts of the NAM nations on my part was noted here and they just pushed in chips that will elude current logic for some time. We need to stand the middle ground and wave good luck. The only thing I seen that made sense was China asked can you guys plant some more soy beans for us. I know there air is foul and there numbers fishy but really these guys all need to step back and get a clue and let the regular catch a break on reasonable measures of assurances the adults are on deck more than not.