Generational Dynamics World View News

[John]

** 05-May-2019 World View: Trump threatens sharp increase on tariffs on goods from China

Although the Trump administration has repeatedly said that the
US-China trade talks have been going well, further progress was thrown
into doubt on Sunday when president Donald Trump threatened to raise
the existing tariffs of 10% on certain Chinese goods would rise to 25%
on Friday, May 10. Other untaxed goods from China, totalling $325
billion, would also be subject to the new tariffs.

Trump issued the following tweet:

For 10 months, China has been paying Tariffs to the
USA of 25% on 50 Billion Dollars of High Tech, and 10% on 200
Billion Dollars of other goods. These payments are partially
responsible for our great economic results. The 10% will go up to
25% on Friday. 325 Billions Dollars....

....of additional goods sent to us by China remain untaxed, but
will be shortly, at a rate of 25%. The Tariffs paid to the USA
have had little impact on product cost, mostly borne by China. The
Trade Deal with China continues, but too slowly, as they attempt
to renegotiate. No! 12:08 PM - 5 May 2019

A number of analysts have expressed concern that failure of the
US-China trade talks would cause stocks to fall. It would also have a
deleterious effect on China's economy.

---- Sources:

-- Trump threatens to raise tariffs on $200bn of Chinese goods
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-48171561
(BBC)

-- Trump's tweet
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/sta ... 5044573186
(Twitter)

[John]

** 05-May-2019 World View: Israeli-Palestinian violence in Gaza escalates

Israel has targeted and killed a senior Hamas militant commander,
violating the pattern that I described yesterday -- to avoid
casualties in order to prevent triggering a larger war, such as the
one in 2014.

Hamas had previously violated the same pattern, as four Israelis were
killed by missiles launched into Israel from Gaza. Benjamin Netanyahu
has ordered the army to continue bombing of sites in Gaza, and the
army says that it has struck hundreds of militant sites.

The assassinated Hamas commander was Hamed al-Khoudary, whose car was
targeted in an airstrike. The 34-year-old militant leader was
allegedly responsible for transferring money from Iran to terrorist
organizations in Gaza.

The violence is continuing, and it's certain that Hamas will do
something to get revenge for the killing of al-Khoudary.

An interesting side note: I heard an Israeli official on tv this
morning say something to the effect that the Eurovision Song Contest,
scheduled to take place on May 14-18 in Israel, might have to be
canceled, "because the lives of Israelis are more important that a tv
show." I got the impression that he would like to see it canceled.

---- Sources:
-- Gaza violence escalates after militants launch rocket attacks
https://www.dw.com/en/gaza-violence-esc ... a-48605797
(Deutsche Welle, 5-May-2019)

[John]

** 05-May-2019 Riot in China in 2007

> You don't live in Asia. How do I know that? Simple: if you did you
> would know the economies here are unraveling. High youth
> unemployment and social unrest are growing. Companies are going
> bankrupt at a rate not seen since the 1997 crisis. It's not bad
> here; it's disastrous. If it's bad in Korea, it must be
> catastrophic in China. I've witnessed 'social unrest' (there is a
> euphemism if I ever seen one), and it was a full scale riot. I saw
> that back in 2007. I was lucky not to be arrested as a foreigner
> just for witnessing such an event. China is coming apart at the
> seams. They will fight to preserve unity.

> The riot in was in China in 2007. I saw it. It was bad. I made my
> way carefully back to my hotel. That night, nothing on the news
> about it. Nothing. I honestly believe that if the Chinese police
> had spotted me, they would arrested me and I would have
> vanished. China is a scary place. And this took place 12 years
> ago. What is it like NOW?

> In 1997, it was Asia in crisis, but the IMF stepped in with
> loans. Today the whole world is in crisis. Who will save the world
> now?

> I will never return to China. China is over for me. Any foreigner
> that stays there will be killed eventually. Consider yourself
> warned.

Can you describe the 2007 riot in China? Was it just a lot of
shouting or were people clashing with the police? Or were
groups of civilians clashing with each other?

[Guest in Seoul]

I don't know exactly what happened or what caused it. I came across it while walking through the city. It was a large group of Chinese civilians violently fighting with Chinese policeman. I only watched it for a few minutes. I knew I would be in a lot of trouble if I were spotted. I knew that. It involved at least several hundred people. Maybe more. The whole street and the intersection were filled with people. It was violent. But I took off. I watched the TV news that night and there was nothing on about it. It was only good news about China's rosy future and progress. Stories about new apartments seemed to dominate the television that night. That and WW2 dramas about fighting Japan. One drama was called 'Chop' and it was about a big sword unit. I don't want to get dragged into any trouble with the Chinese government. I'll end this now.

[FishbellykanakaDude]

** 05-May-2019 2023

> Therefore, I'm taking the position that it's LESS likely (until
> 2023ish) that some triggering event will start the next world war
> than the "mean" opinion of the denizens of this forum.

Where did you come up with 2023? Do you have a reason, or does 2023
just feel good? Do you have an analytical approach, or are you just
making things up as you go along to match some ideology?

My "ideology" is pretty much "Don't harm innocents any more than necessary, and don't create slaves", but that doesn't inform THAT much of my thinking as to when conditions might be "right" to trigger the world war.

I pull 2023 outta-me-butt (new verb I claim no ownership rights to whatsoever so use with impunity) because I think that's when 5G technology will be "acceptably" deployed to "ensure" that all the various and sundry tech warfare equipment can be "mostly reliably" used so as to be not "overly" interfered with by the opposition on the battlefield.

I also think ("think" may be an overstatement) that the "elites" are "delaying" the necessary "trigger structure rigidity" (aka the trigger's non-"sponginess" where more rigidity would make the trigger more sensitive) until a "cure" (fully restorative probably-genetically individually targeted therapy) for "nuclear fallout caused cancer" so that they are "assured" survival after the various nuclear exchanges are finished with.

The basic "analysis" that I use is that while the "elite" can't stop any upcoming GD Crisis (genocidal) war, as it's a bottom-up process, they can, and have ('though I can't prove that as I'm FAR too lazy) delay it by "decompressing/spongifying" the "panic trigger", with diminishing returns over time, which makes the "triggering" eventually inevitable 'though delayable.

..that, and 2023 is when the 2024 US campaign starts to gets "real", where the "chaos" factor will spike up quite a bit.

So,.. yeah,.. I'm using the rectal extrusion method more than anything else, essentially.

<Shaka nui!>

[John]

** 06-May-2019 China's World War II dramas

> I don't know exactly what happened or what caused it. I came
> across it while walking through the city. It was a large group of
> Chinese civilians violently fighting with Chinese policeman. I
> only watched it for a few minutes. I knew I would be in a lot of
> trouble if I were spotted. I knew that. It involved at least
> several hundred people. Maybe more. The whole street and the
> intersection were filled with people. It was violent. But I took
> off. I watched the TV news that night and there was nothing on
> about it. It was only good news about China's rosy future and
> progress. Stories about new apartments seemed to dominate the
> television that night. That and WW2 dramas about fighting
> Japan. One drama was called 'Chop' and it was about a big sword
> unit. I don't want to get dragged into any trouble with the
> Chinese government. I'll end this now.

Thank you for that description. It's very interesting.

There's one tidbit that was particularly interesting: "WW2 dramas
about fighting Japan." This is part of the anti-Japan hate
campaign that China has been waging for decades.

I wrote about this in my book at length. After Mao had completely
disgraced Socialism, Communism and Marxism with the Great Leap
Forward, which killed tens of thousands of Chinese through
starvation and violence, and proved that capitalism was far superior,
young people began rejecting the communist ideology and began
pro-democracy demonstrations. The 1989 pro-democracy demonstrations
led to the Tiananmen Square massacre, and the slaughter of thousands
of young, peaceful protesters. This was followed, in 1991, by
the collapse of China's mentor, the Soviet Union.

This threw the CCP into a paranoid panic. The people in the CCP
really don't care how many great Chinese people they torture, beat,
rape, jail or kill, as long as they stay in power. Their solution?
Replace the communist ideology with a hate Japan ideology campaign.

So that's what WW II tv dramas are about.

[FishbellykanakaDude]

The riot in was in China in 2007. I saw it. It was bad. I made my way carefully back to my hotel. That night, nothing on the news about it. Nothing. I honestly believe that if the Chinese police had spotted me, they would arrested me and I would have vanished. China is a scary place. And this took place 12 years ago. What is it like NOW?

In 1997, it was Asia in crisis, but the IMF stepped in with loans. Today the whole world is in crisis. Who will save the world now?

I will never return to China. China is over for me. Any foreigner that stays there will be killed eventually. Consider yourself warned.

I've heard this same thing from other sources as well, but you made it sound as if South Korea was where the "riot" happened. That didn't sound right, and thanks for clarifying that.

John has made note of the massive number of unpublicized "discontent events" that have been happening for quite some time.

The "test concentration camp" system for the Uighur population will eventually be applied to all dissidents, or course.

Just out of curiosity, are you of one of the various "chinese" phenotypes?

[John]

** 06-May-2019 US-China Trade Talks

Analysts on tv have been talking all day about the US-China trade
talks, and Trump's shocking tweet announcing that harsh new tariffs
will be imposed on Friday.

The negotiations have been going on for weeks, and apparently the
Chinese negotiators made commitments in writing having to do with
verification, but now China is reneging on those written commitments.
This infuriated Trump, so he issued the tweet. (One analyst suggested
that the Chinese negotiator who made those commitments is now going to
be punished.)

We keep coming back to the same place, whether it's North Korea or
China. North Korea will never denuclearize, and China will never stop
cheating on trade.

Update: Apparently the Chinese are saying that they won't violate
Chinese law for a trade deal. The implication of that statement is
that Chinese law requires Chinese businesses to cheat on trade. This
is not surprising, as the National Intelligence Law (November 2017)
requires all businesses to collect foreign intelligence for China's
military, even when doing so violates the law.

[Guest]

These tariffs are rumps Smoot-Hawley. China can't take the body blows coming. I expect NK to start firing off ICBMs any day now.

[Buzz saw]

trump just wants a deal. i don't want a ******* deal with our biggest enemy china. i want a full on ballz to the wallz trade war that lasts fifty years.