Financial topics

Investments, gold, currencies, surviving after a financial meltdown
aedens
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Re: Financial topics

Post by aedens »

OLD1953 wrote: As I said in a post on the daily news, there are two economies in the USA that are intertwined, but not the same. One manages alterations in the physical world and is rewarded for those alterations. This is the source of all physical goods and services, if you can see it, listen to it, eat it, wear it or otherwise use it directly, it's part of this economy. The other economy deals solely in the manipulation of symbols deriving their value from these alterations in the physical world, or the organizations or individuals that perform such alterations, including the past, present or future value of such alterations (assumed under a set of assumptions that may or may not be accurate and may or may not be revealed to those outside the inner circle). This is the world of banks, brokers, futures markets, etc.

Just incidentally, this is why Bernanke's efforts have come to so little. He can only manipulate the second economy, and if the second economy isn't effective in boosting the first economy, then he can't do anything at all. Graphs of stimulus dollars vs economic growth show that he's simply SOL.
If you've got a better reason, lets hear it.
Bernanke is right about the past, Anna Schwartz conveyed, “but he is fighting the wrong war today; the present crisis has nothing to do with a lack of liquidity.” President Obama’s stimulus is similarly irrelevant, she believes, since the crisis also has nothing to do with a lack of demand or investment.
Investors would then start speculating on short-term bets—whether tulips in the seventeenth century or sub-prime and more recently seeking to beat the expected inflation. Eventually, such “manias,” as Schwartz calls them, would begin replacing long-term investment, thus destroying entrepreneurship and harming economic growth. The credit crunch, which is the recession’s actual cause, comes only from a lack of trust, argues Schwartz. Lenders aren’t lending because they don’t know who is solvent, and they can’t know who is solvent because portfolios remain full of housing securities and other toxic assets. To rekindle the credit market, the banks must get rid of those toxic assets. That’s why Schwartz supported, in principle, the Bush administration’s first proposal for responding to the crisis—to buy bad assets from banks—though not, she emphasizes, while pricing those assets so generously as to prop up failed institutions. The administration abandoned its plan when it appeared too complicated to price the assets. Bernanke and then–Treasury secretary Henry Paulson subsequently shifted to recapitalizing the banks directly. “Doing so is shifting from trying to save the banking system to trying to save bankers, which is not the same thing,” Schwartz says. “Ultimately, though, firms that made wrong decisions should fail.
Last edited by aedens on Sat Sep 15, 2012 10:32 pm, edited 11 times in total.
Reality Check
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Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2011 6:07 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Reality Check »

One of the questions is to what terrified the FED and the ECB enough for them to throw caution out the window and make statements like:

ECB: Whatever it takes to bring Spanish and Italian bond interest rates down, no limit...

FED: Whatever it takes to reverse employment trends, no limit ...

There is not much left if no limit fails to achieve the goal, why go that far now ???

What is it in the real economy or the derivative economy that they fear that much ???
Reality Check
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Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2011 6:07 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Reality Check »

The other question is where is the money coming from to buy that portion of Spanish and Italian bonds, at such low interest rates, not being purchased by the ECB.

and, where is the other 65% of money coming from to fund mortgages each month at such low interest rates ?

and, where is the other money coming from to buy U.S. government debt that is not being purchased by the FED ?
vincecate wrote: I also predict that after the end of the year they will buy at a rate over $85 billion per month. There will be fewer and fewer fools leaving their money in bonds paying less than the inflation rate, so the Fed will have to buy an even larger fraction of the market.

-- Vince
I would suggest there are three buyers here, not just two.

One is the FED,

The second is the fools - but that will be diminishing based on the fool and his money truism.

The third is the buyers using other peoples money ( OPM ).

OPM can be the trust funds of Widows and Orphans.

OPM can also be the retirement funds of government employees.

OPM could be money stolen from customer accounts like MF GLOBAL and MADOFF did.

OPM can come from money borrowed by governments and spent as a deficit.

OPM can come from other sources.

What are the events that could start substantially shrinking the sources of OPM ???
Higgenbotham
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Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

Reality Check wrote:One of the questions is to what terrified the FED and the ECB enough for them to throw caution out the window and make statements like:

ECB: Whatever it takes to bring Spanish and Italian bond interest rates down, no limit...

FED: Whatever it takes to reverse employment trends, no limit ...

There is not much left if no limit fails to achieve the goal, why go that far now ???

What is it in the real economy or the derivative economy that they fear that much ???
I've been mulling this question over. We will never know, but here are a couple ideas:

1. A major bank was on the verge of going under.
2. A number of major banks told Bernake that they can't hold onto their shadow inventory or hold back the foreclosure process any longer and he must do something to boost the housing market or they will have to start flooding the market with inventory.
3. Romney stated with enough clarity that he will kick Bernake out and reorganize the Fed that he made believers out of the Fed and they are trying to make sure Obama gets reelected.

Anything else?
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
aedens
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Joined: Tue Nov 04, 2008 4:13 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aedens »

The referendum in 2005 was an unforgettable lesson for European politicians: don’t let the riffraff decide. Such matters are best handled by the elite—politicians, bankers, and unelected bureaucrats. And in Germany, they were busy handling such matters. Read.... Power Grab: The Noose Tightens On National Sovereignty in Europe. http://www.testosteronepit.com

We descended into darkness many decades ago. Nothing will stop them. Lets get to the point, its been over even before FDR did what he had to
match the competition of scale from the end of the Monarchists. Look at the facts of current payments. Also they will run the experiment no matter what with quantitative methods for macro research, non-parametric econometrics, empirical policy evaluation, empirical finance micro structure, and experimental economics no matter what the result. What did Oppenheimer say when questioned on the safety of the the bomb as a review?

Warned as Mises did it is characteristic of current political thinking to welcome every suggestion which aims at enlarging the influence of government. Inflation can be pursued only so long as the public still does not believe it will continue. Once the people generally realize that the inflation will be continued on and on and that the value of the monetary unit will decline more and more, then the fate of the money is sealed. Only the belief, that the inflation will come to a stop, maintains the value of the notes. If the practice persists of covering government deficits with the issue of notes, then the day will come without fail, sooner or later, when the monetary systems of those nations pursuing this course will break down completely. The purchasing power of the monetary unit will decline more and more, until finally it disappears completely. The most serious dangers for American freedom and the American way of life do not come from without. What is needed to prevent any further credit expansion is to place the banking business under the general rules of commercial and civil laws compelling every individual and firm to fulfill all obligations in full compliance with the terms of the contract. If you have to convince a group of people who are not directly dependent on a solution of a problem, you will never succeed. Only to bureaucrats can the idea occur that establishing new offices, promulgating new decrees, and increasing the number of government employees alone can be described as positive and beneficial measures. The issue is always the same: the government or the market. There is no third solution. As a result, while attempts to clean up and recapitalize the US and European financial systems make sense, and are needed to support any eventual recovery, this will not immediately stop the process of financial contraction and economic decline. Fiscal stimulus similarly can soften the blow of the recession but will not directly address the underlying problems, and many countries are constrained by high debt levels.
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Last edited by aedens on Sat Sep 15, 2012 6:45 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Reality Check
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Re: Financial topics

Post by Reality Check »

ECB - I will take a speculative shot at explaining their terror.

The very existence of the Euro Zone and the very existence of the European Central Bank is at stake.

The Major Euro-zone Countries, Germany-France-Italy are all dependent on the entire Euro Zone economy continuing to grow, or at least, not contract substantially.
This dependency is related to the huge total government debt each country has relative to it's GDP.

Growth in the Euro-Zone depends on continued deficit spending by France-Italy-Spain.

Germany is an export driven economy and it is not as dependent on German government deficit spending, but it is dependent on exports sold to France-Italy-Spain.

Those German exports to France-Italy-Spain are dependent on deficit spending in France-Italy-Spain.

Germany sells goods outside of Europe based on contracts denominated in Euros.

Both the European Union government and the National Governments are very dependent on the Value Added tax. If the economy shrinks substantially so does the taxes available to governments for servicing both servicing their debt and continuing to provide stimulus.

The ECB and the political elites of Europe have seen what happens in a country that attempts to both reduce deficit spending and stay in the Euro-Zone.
The poster boy for that scenario is Greece. The Greek economy has seen nothing but continued massive contraction every month for years.

Spain and Italy must either continue deficit spending and stay in the Euro, or reduce deficit spending and leave the Euro-Zone and return to their national currency so they can be economically competitive and rebuild their economizes on production, rather than consumption.

The Debt in Spain and Italy is so high as a percentage of their GDP that they can not survive interest rates that would accurately reflect the risk of loaning to them.

The rest of the European Union must bail Spain and Italy out, or the Euro-Zone and Euro currency must be dismantled.

If Germany loses both it's exports to Spain and Italy and the Euro as an export currency to the rest of the world it's economy will contract to the point it's total debt, as a percentage of GDP, will also be overwhelming.

Politics in Germany and the rest of Northern Europe will not allow the legislatures of Germany and Northern Europe to bail out Italy and Spain directly.

The European Central Bank can promise to buy unlimited amounts of Spanish and Italian debt without a vote by the parliaments of Germany and Northern Europe.
That was the least poor option of all the poor options to kick the can down the rode.

It is still an open question if the Charter for the ECB must be amended before the ECB can actually keep it's promise, and if it must be amended then can the voters of Germany and Northern Europe be bypassed as part of amending the ECB charter.

It would appear that keeping interest rates low on an ever increasing Spanish and Italian government debt is not a solution, just a delaying tactic.
But the alternative is apparently terrifying to the European elites.

Maybe they are hoping to kick the can down the rode long enough for a good world war or pandemic to reduce the voters and the mouths to feed.
Last edited by Reality Check on Sat Sep 15, 2012 7:01 pm, edited 3 times in total.
Higgenbotham
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Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

This article has some details on what may have led to QE3.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/832701- ... nd-freddie

To me, these details are irrelevant, but I may not understand it. What really matters in my view is that the Fed will be purchasing an additional $40 billion in mortgages per month in exchange for $40 billion in newly generated electronic dollars. If Fannie and Freddie are winding down mortgages, what that says to me is on net Fannie and Feddie may end up with $40 billion in cash while the Fed ends up with $40 billion in mortgages. The 15% wind down target I keep hearing about might target roughly $40 billion per month above the natural paydown rate. Take my numbers with a grain of salt. Earlier, I had estimated corporate profits in the US economy to be $1.0 trillion per year. A few weeks later, I saw on the FRED web site that they are actually $1.8 trillion per year. Surprised nobody called me on that. If Fannie and Freddie get that $40 billion per month, I don't know what happens to it. I would assume it goes into some kind of investment, or goes into an account where whoever gets that cash will invest it in some way.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
aedens
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Joined: Tue Nov 04, 2008 4:13 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aedens »

Note also the massive transfer of debt (and risk) from the private sector to the public sector.
Runs down hill to save incompetence. Watch the DXY from the pigs ass cork leaking.
Last edited by aedens on Sat Sep 15, 2012 10:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Higgenbotham
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Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

The report showed that 91% of the 1,500 CFOs polled wouldn’t bolster their spending plans even if the Fed’s programs successfully lowered interest rates by one percentage point. And 84% said a hefty two-point reduction in rates wouldn’t change their spending plans either.
Due to those jitters, executives now plan to boost capital spending by just 3.7% over the coming 12 months, down from 4.9% last quarter and 7.3% in the spring, the Duke report said. Hiring is seen rising just 1.5%, down from more than 2% previously.
http://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/2012 ... -with-qe3/

Seems like the handwriting is on the wall.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
aedens
Posts: 5211
Joined: Tue Nov 04, 2008 4:13 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aedens »

October 21, 2011 Bank Of America Dumps $75 Trillion In Derivatives On U.S. Taxpayers With Federal Approval
and that is not even the beginning of the debauchery.

Most of the spending in August was on products that households have to buy, such as gasoline, not items they like to buy.

No reason as you suggested but to cover payments on dead balance sheets to the Banks we already noted.
http://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/gret ... t-us/72774
Last edited by aedens on Thu Sep 20, 2012 4:09 am, edited 1 time in total.
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