Financial topics

[gerald]

Lets save the economy --- the crazier the better --- right?

Friday, June 22, 2012
Paul Krugman's Alien Invasion Defense Idea To Save Economy?
Nobel laureate economist Paul Krugman repeated his assertion this week that the United States could benefit economically if the government began pouring money into anti-ET defense in preparation for a possible alien invasion of Earth.
Even a faked war of the worlds scare might help, he suggested.
The Huffington Post reached out to some experts who share an intense interest in the idea that earthlings are not the only intelligent game in town -- or space.
We asked, If there were an ET threat and if the U.S. government were to suddenly rechannel its budgets into preparing an anti-alien defense, would that ultimately save our economy? Their responses varied, ranging from skepticism to enthusiasm.
Here is a sampling of their replies emailed to HuffPost:

"I assume the alien attack is a euphemism designed to gain public support for that spending effort. Therefore, my position would be that the alien invasion he proposes to prepare for is with the mythical aliens. They are Hollywood contrivances and conveniently always have fatal vulnerabilities that humans can exploit. The good news in that scenario is we both defeat the evil aliens, and in this case, restore our economy." --John Alexander, a retired Army colonel and developer of the concept of nonlethal defense at Los Alamos National Laboratory
"Any aliens that have the capability to come here and ruin our whole day by vaporizing Earth or terrorizing its hominid inhabitants, would be centuries -- perhaps millennia -- beyond our technical level. To spend effort preparing for such a lugubrious possibility would be like the Neanderthals organizing their society to defend themselves against the U.S. Air Force. That won't do them much good on the battlefield. But who's to say? Maybe it would improve the Neanderthal economy." -- Seth Shostak, a senior astronomer at the SETI Institute and chair of the International Academy of Astronautics' SETI Permanent Committee

[aedens]

20120622_NJC3.png (66.89 KiB) Viewed 8709 times

Read to your content. Lots of fun time with aliens if your a day late and a dollar short. the crazier the better
http://web.mit.edu/krugman/www/

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kwLH34-m ... re=related

“The only sovereign I can allow to rule me is reason. The first law of reason is this: what exists exists; what is is. From this irreducible, bedrock principle, all knowledge is built. This is the foundation from which life is embraced. Reason is a choice. Wishes and whims are not facts, nor are they a means to discovering them. Reason is our only way of grasping reality–it is our basic tool of survival. We are free to evade the effort of thinking, to reject reason, but we are not free to avoid the penalty of the abyss we refuse to see.”

[gerald]

An interesting commencement speech given by Dr. Michael J. Burry at UCLA. He touches upon finance. education, an example of the consequences of stating a possible financial truth, and where things could be headed.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/dr-michae ... ent-speech

[Reality Check]

This video should be a must watch for every high school and college student.

The old saying about "if you are so smart about economics why did you not make billions simply does not apply in his case". He did predict the financial crisis as to both general trends, individual assets and the exact timing. He not only made himself a billionaire but he also made the investors in his fund Billions just because he was so well educated on the subject of finance and economics.

The fact that not a single Senator or Congressman contacted him to seek his advice on what happened during the economic crisis and how to fix things so a crisis like this never happens again is simply astounding.

[Higgenbotham]

The fact that not a single Senator or Congressman contacted him to seek his advice on what happened during the economic crisis and how to fix things so a crisis like this never happens again is simply astounding.

RC, they're too arrogant. I heard Greenspan say Burry could be dismissed because he was just lucky and nobody could have predicted the meltdown.

[Trevor]

Although it sounds like Greenspan figured out what was going to happen or at least had an idea of what was about to happen. who'd listen, though?

[Higgenbotham]

Although it sounds like Greenspan figured out what was going to happen or at least had an idea of what was about to happen. who'd listen, though?

Probably right. Another thing I'd mention is Burry lost money for a long time before the market turned and now all that seems to be conveniently forgotten.

http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2010/04/mi ... enspa.html

People who call for crashes usually do so for a long time before they come. I saw the real estate crash coming too because I was in the business. But the fact is that I sold the last of my property in May 2004 thinking I might not have the Spring selling season in 2005 to get rid of it before the crash came. So what. Though that doesn't change the fact that Washington is full of arrogance.

On another note, I read about this Klein bus monitor bullying incident. As X'ers we used to bully the bus drivers mildly, but in no way were we cruel like these kids were (by the way, I went to school in this school district). I thought the things I read here were appalling. I'm not sold on the idea that we have a bonafide Hero generation who can pull us out of this mess.

http://news.yahoo.com/bullying-teachers ... 37020.html

[Marc]

On another note, I read about this Klein bus monitor bullying incident. As X'ers we used to bully the bus drivers mildly, but in no way were we cruel like these kids were (by the way, I went to school in this school district). I thought the things I read here were appalling. I'm not sold on the idea that we have a bonafide Hero generation who can pull us out of this mess.

http://news.yahoo.com/bullying-teachers ... 37020.html

Ah, you got to that one before this X'er here decided to post on that topic, which was coming And, I was indeed wondering the same damn thing as you were, Higgie: How the hell can "Heroes" such as these middle-schoolers spew that swill on an adult school official like that?

In my own encounters with Millennials, many of them have seemed to be much more genteel and nicer than what I can remember with X'ers in my growing-up years. Much of this seemed to do with how they were being raised. However, how do we explain the bus-monitor-bullying incident, as well as flash-mob violence that has recently taken place? Just a theory here, but I feel that generational theory, as it focuses on "macro elements" of behavior, does a good job of predicting overall behavioral trends. One of these trends, I feel, is the prediction that the up-and-coming Millennial Generation would tend (and does tend) to have fewer rough edges overall than Gen-X did.

However, you still have "micro trends" that can be "shielded" from the macro trends, of which the latter can be influenced by socioeconomic conditions in various locales as well as media/consumer influences and other influences. I detect that, despite all the "Millennial gentility" that I think is out there, that there are many "pockets of Millennials-as-X'ers-on-steroids" due to these micro influences. (In fact, if the Crisis Regeneracy is significantly delayed, the phenomenon of "Heroes acting as Nomads on steroids" may be the biggest "generational aberration" that one finds here and there, due to the phenomenon of "me-me-me-ism" being able to really take hold among some Civic-generation groups here and there who have adopted Nomad consumerist ways, been influenced by media largely produced by Nomads that's been heavily targeted to the Civics, etc.)

When a "climax Crisis" event hits, this is apt to shape up the "Millennials-as-X'ers-on-steroids," as their behavior is quickly shunned, and a prosocial dominant Hero culture is normed. I could be wrong about this, but I am betting that this is what happens. As such, I have faith in the Millennials to "save the world" (or at least have a good shot at it) when they are called upon to do so, but many of the Millennials are going to need the equivalent of the discipline of Marine Corps boot camp to shape them up quickly. Again, just my theory there.... Thanks, Higgie, for sharing the relevant, intelligent thoughts. —Best regards, Marc

[Reality Check]

The fact that not a single Senator or Congressman contacted him to seek his advice on what happened during the economic crisis and how to fix things so a crisis like this never happens again is simply astounding.

RC, they're too arrogant. I heard Greenspan say Burry could be dismissed because he was just lucky and nobody could have predicted the meltdown.

Greenspan may be arrogant, but he is not that stupid.

The slicing and dicing of baskets of mortgages, even top rated Prime Mortgages, creates both high risk and low risk derivative securities from the same basket of mortgages. For example a derivative contract with 100% of it's cash flow coming from that portion of the interest payments that would be lost immediately, fully, and permanently in the event of a default, were extremely high risk, yet they were often rated AAA.

Any analyst could see this before the crash if they took the time to actually look at the mortgage derivative contracts being created and sold as securities, and everyone could see it with the benefit of hind sight. Even I saw it after the fact.

Greenspan was obviously attacking the man for the purpose of discrediting him, not because Greenspan believed that no one could have predicted the crisis.

[Reality Check]

Probably right. Another thing I'd mention is Burry lost money for a long time before the market turned and now all that seems to be conveniently forgotten.

How much money did he lose and over what period of time?

What were the size of the losses versus the magnitude of the gain?

The size and the duration matters as does the strategy itself.

The fact that he closed down his funds and took his profits in 2008 also indicates that he knew what had happened immediately and was happy to take his profits out of the middle third and get out. That is the indication of a conservative investor, not someone out on the lunatic fringe.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/04/opinion/04burry.html