Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

Actually since 2003 there has been about 40% inflation.
Not hyperinflation but not deflation either.

There is a tightening in my chest. Why do I feel like we are on the brink of war? It's just a feeling, but it is sickening. I wish I could move to some faway country, but WW3 will be different from WW2. There will be no neutral Macau or Portugal to hide out in. I have a miltary background, but I am now partially disabled and unfit for miltary duty. I have become useless and worthless. I am no longer of any value to anyone. I have never avoided the fray. It is terrible to be useless and left out.

** 29-Jan-2021 World View: Deflationary era

Tom Mazanec wrote: Fri Jan 29, 2021 10:45 am > Actually since 2003 there has been about 40% inflation. Not
> hyperinflation but not deflation either.

40% inflation in 18 years? Well, let's see:
So according to your figures, the average compounded inflation rate
since 2003 is 1.019, so the CPI for the last 18 years has averaged
1.9% per year. In view of the massive influx of printed money poured
into the financial system in the last 18 years, not to mention the
quadrillions of dollars of money created through debt, I would call
that a "deflationary era." And when that debt starts unraveling,
you'll see the real power of deflation. [Corrected]

** 29-Jan-2021 World View: Sickening feeling

Guest wrote: Fri Jan 29, 2021 10:51 am > There is a tightening in my chest. Why do I feel like we are on
> the brink of war? It's just a feeling, but it is sickening. I wish
> I could move to some faway country, but WW3 will be different from
> WW2. There will be no neutral Macau or Portugal to hide out in. I
> have a miltary background, but I am now partially disabled and
> unfit for miltary duty. I have become useless and worthless. I am
> no longer of any value to anyone. I have never avoided the
> fray. It is terrible to be useless and left out.

Thank you for your service.

You know, I feel exactly the same -- useless and worthless. I've
managed to find my niche of usefulness by providing the Generational
Dynamics website and forum. I'm still worthless because this doesn't
make any money, and in fact I'm a hated pariah (Cassandra Curse), but
even though I'm worthless and hated, I'm at least still useful for a
few thousand people.

I mention all that because you may be able to find your own niche in a
similar way. You have a lot of experience, including military
experience, and you even know how to find Macau and Portugal on a map.
That's something that today's snowflake children are unable to do,
since all they know is what they learn in Women's Studies and
Sociology courses. So maybe you can find a niche by educating the
snowflakes on the reality of what the world is like, and what
preparations they should take. Navigator has done this for adults,
but maybe you could find a way to do it for snowflake children, so
they'll have someone else to listen to besides idiots like AOC and
Biden and Elizabeth Warren and Janet Yellen. The point I'm making is
that maybe you can make yourself useful by doing something
educational, either online or in your community. It can make you
useful for a while longer, even if, like me, you're still worthless
and hated.

John wrote: Fri Jan 29, 2021 11:31 am ** 29-Jan-2021 World View: Deflationary era

Tom Mazanec wrote: Fri Jan 29, 2021 10:45 am > Actually since 2003 there has been about 40% inflation. Not
> hyperinflation but not deflation either.

40% inflation in 18 years? Well, let's see:

Code: Select all

cpi**18 = 1.40
18*log(cpi) = log(1.40)
log(cpi) = log(1.40)/18
cpi = exp(log(1.40)/18)
cpi = exp(log(1.40)/18) = 1.0188687080608183

So according to your figures, the average compounded inflation rate
since 2003 is 1.02%. In view of the massive influx of printed money
poured into the financial system in the last 18 years, not to mention
the quadrillions of dollars of money created through debt, I would
call that a "deflationary era." And when that debt starts unraveling,
you'll see the real power of deflation.

Correction: The compound inflation rate since 2003 is 1.02 (not
1.02%), so the CPI is 0.02%, which is about as close to deflation as
you can get without officially being deflation.

This brings up some good points. "Money created through debt" - this would be deflationary if the debt went bad and the lienholder seized the collateral asset or the debtholder had to liquidate. But most US public debt has no collateral, Treasuries, and unfunded obligations (SSI, Medicare, pensions) form the overwhelming mass of US debt, including among states. No one can call in that debt and seize some kind of collateral. It will just go up in a puff of smoke, or they'll print more dollars to try to fund it. That's inflationary.

Now old-school thinking is that governments have the power to tax, and that's what makes public debt secure. These days they will never raise taxes on lower-middle and below incomes. Any tax increases will be redistributed as UBI and the thousands of $Billion global giveaways and programs, not to pay on the debt load. So if the govt used its taxing power (essentially seizing assets) to manage debt, that would be deflationary, but they will never do that in this era. Today Biden is called the "Trillion Dollar Man" by Al Jazeera, and not in a derogatory way. $15 minimum is coming despite a half-hearted slow-walk by Republicans.

The leftist govt. will increase taxes on high earners (having zero impact on them overall), but also include middle class in the $400k range. These middle class will be hurt the most. Lower middle may get squeezed later as the country rots away to Venezuela status. But eventually other people's money will run out, the rich will find shelters without a doubt. Once seizing power is exhausted, we're back to inflation.

Property and stonks are a different story, though I'm not sure how much of that is leveraged. I don't think it comes anywhere near public debt. And most of that is privately held. If we go full leftard commie and seize some dissident's property, then sell it publicly, that will be deflationary. If it's seized and held by the govt, it's inflationary. Fed balance sheet is surprisingly small, ~$7T, and pales compared to debt and obligations of $100-200T. Much of the Fed liquidity funds property and business loans, heavily collateralized.

I don't know if we're facing inflation or hyperinflation, but definitely not convinced we're facing deflation.

* Population growing, open borders
* Debt to GDP derailed and detached
* UBI
* $15/hr
* $1400 checks
* Money printer go brrrr
* Housing starts broke records in 2020
* Americans spend like maniacs (only hobbled now by closed shops during Covid)
* Americans want free stuff

Still searching for deflation...

Oh here it is, in Japan:
* Population shrinking, restrictive immigration
* Debt closely follows GDP, rock solid and rational
* No UBI
* Entry level, low skill wages rock solid at approx $12-13/hr
* Money printer go slowww
* Houses rotting in place
* Japanese save like maniacs
* Japanese work their asses off for what they have

** 29-Jan-2021 World View: Searching for deflation

Oh wait. There's one other place that you missed in your massive
search for deflation. That other place would be America between
1930-33, when the cpi fell 25%.

Guest wrote: Fri Jan 29, 2021 10:51 am There is a tightening in my chest. Why do I feel like we are on the brink of war? It's just a feeling, but it is sickening. I wish I could move to some faway country, but WW3 will be different from WW2. There will be no neutral Macau or Portugal to hide out in. I have a miltary background, but I am now partially disabled and unfit for miltary duty. I have become useless and worthless. I am no longer of any value to anyone. I have never avoided the fray. It is terrible to be useless and left out.

There's always the home front. And if you're unfit for that, is what it is. Don't feel too sorry about it.

John, what about the possibility that we enter a short period of hyperinflation, followed by a long period of hyperdeflation?

** 29-Jan-2021 World View: hyperinflation

DaKardii wrote: Fri Jan 29, 2021 4:19 pm > John, what about the possibility that we enter a short period of
> hyperinflation, followed by a long period of
> hyperdeflation?

Hyperinflation is literally impossible.

John wrote: Fri Jan 29, 2021 3:24 pm ** 29-Jan-2021 World View: Searching for deflation

Oh wait. There's one other place that you missed in your massive
search for deflation. That other place would be America between
1930-33, when the cpi fell 25%.

Surprisingly population growth during that period, The Great Depression, was slightly higher in % than today. 1930-1940 ~7.3%, 2010-2020~6.7%

You missed the critical difference. Back then USD was tied to gold so money-printer-go-brrr was impossible. Best they could do was WPA.
No social safety net, no UBI, no $1400, no free welfare, no rent moratorium, no Covid business loans that don't need repayment.

So even if there's a stupendous market crash, that you expect to lead to a depression, the Govt still will try money-printer-go-brrr which was not an option back then.