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aeden wrote: Mon Dec 05, 2022 9:57 am We are trying to add qualified staff, with little success.

Third Quarter | September 28, 2022

Comments from Survey Respondents

These comments are from respondents’ completed surveys and have been edited for publication. Comments from the Special Questions survey can be found below the special questions.

Exploration and Production (E&P) Firms

The cost of supplies and wait times for delivery have increased substantially.
The availability of services and supplies is the chief constraint on expanding my business.
The labor issue will provide a restraint on any major increase in oil and gas production for the domestic market―this, as well as the regulations from the present administration as they chase green energy policy. Permitting, soaring materials costs and the negative propaganda from the federal government will suppress most sources of outside capital to increase production. Now, with our oil storage depleted for political gain, oil replacement will further stress supply.
The uncertainty over future inflation and/or a recession weighs heavily upon us. The executive branch’s policy toward the E&P industry is also a serious overhang. Poor energy policy from the executive branch may, in the short run, be good for our business but bad for our country.
No one is interested in giving capital to E&P firms. It’s wonderful news for long-term prices.
Uncertainty on the political front continues to be a major concern. The withdrawal of leases that have already been issued is an example. Inflationary pressure is eating significantly into discretionary cash flow, limiting the amount of money allocated to new projects.
The biggest challenge for us is adding employees. We are trying to add qualified staff, with little success, and that will negatively impact growth. Second is the rising cost of services.
The biggest issue we have in our industry is the federal government, which advocates for our extinction. This has affected our ability to hire new, young talent from colleges because they’ve been brainwashed into believing that our industry is bad and that our industry is disappearing, with no future for them. This will be an issue in our industry and the public will pay with higher commodity costs. The capital being chased out of our industry is leading to less supply, and that always leads to higher prices.
We are having a hard time with rig availability and supplies.
Oilfield service inflation has increased, uncertainty has increased and oil prices have decreased. This is a recipe for lower to flat industry spending in 2023.
The biggest issue that our company is facing is a shortage of personnel and equipment from our oilfield service vendors. Another impediment is a shortage of steel tubulars and a corresponding increase in their price. Most tubular prices have increased 500–600 percent from two to three years ago, and that is if you can find them. This will definitely affect smaller producers and will ultimately cause many stripper wells to be shut-in and delay the drilling of many new wells unless it is resolved soon.
Power providers continue to be a material source of potential project delay. The overall supply-chain pressures are more stable today than in the second quarter but remain at a challenging level overall. Steel tubular products are at or above all-time highs in terms of cost due to lack of manufacturing capacity in the market. As goods and services cost pressures continue to move upward and commodity prices moderate, the outlook for moderated (lower) development activity in 2023 grows. Until the labor market improves and pricing pressures moderate, lower capital investment in new wells becomes a more attractive option.
I steered my company back into some Permian Basin projects in West Texas, and now the U.S. Environmental Protection Agenda (EPA) is wanting to label the Permian Basin as a “non-compliance” area based upon one air sampling station outside of Carlsbad, New Mexico. The overreach of the federal government never ceases to amaze me. Delays in delivery of contracted frac [hydraulic fracturing] sand, pumps, oil country tubular goods and even drilling rigs are impairing project timing. Worker availability is hampering project timing also, along with a dearth of truckers.
Extreme volatility in commodity prices causes long-term planning challenges and increases the cost of financial hedging.
Oilfield service firms’ investment has lagged E&P firms’ investment. It is really tough for smaller operators to fit and squeeze into the oilfield service firms’ schedules, which are dominated by larger companies.
The government needs to significantly improve permitting and infrastructure.
Our outlook remains positive but is becoming more uncertain given continued monetary and fiscal tightening coupled with persistent inflationary pressure. If the Federal Reserve overtightens and creates a deep recession, then demand will suffer and, as a result, prices. If, at the same time, inflation is persistent, then drilling economics will suffer as well, setting up a cycle of extreme volatility. We are counting on OPEC+ to put a floor on oil prices in order to maintain stability in the global oil markets.
Senseless political stances such as the administration’s weaponizing and undermining of the U.S. Bureau of Land Management leasing and Gulf Coast licensing rounds, as well as one governor’s arbitrary dictations, represent a terrible step forward. The policies are not helpful in achieving any positive effect for their agendas in the short or long term but are proffered simply for votes. The current political pandering for votes sets dangerous precedents for our ongoing operations and the success of the entire industry.
The administration is trying their best to destroy our energy economy.
Increased capital expenditures are due more to higher costs than to more activity.
It is safe to assume that there will be volatility in all energy markets. The variables are almost uniformly political, supply, military and lack of available capital for development from traditional sources.
Cost inflation and increased delivery/contractor arrival times to complete wells are affecting our business. Oil and gas price volatility, regulatory uncertainty and higher costs of compliance are negatively impacting our planning and execution.
The probability of a worldwide economic recession is casting a long shadow on the demand for oil that is offset by the Russia‒Ukraine conflict. Europe will most likely be forced to dramatically increase coal consumption to alleviate natural gas curtailments from Russia. High global interest rates will dampen investor appetite for risk. The unknown outcome of the upcoming midterm elections in the U.S. creates a lot of anxiety in the oil community. Our investment in new projects will await greater clarity of the road ahead.


Oil and Gas Support Services Firms

The administration's lack of understanding of the oil and gas investment cycle continues to result in inconsistent energy policies that contribute to rising energy costs. This continued inconsistency increases uncertainty and decreases investments in energy infrastructure. We are in an energy death spiral that will lead to higher highs and lower lows. Volatility will increase, and the public is in for a very difficult ride.
Steel tariffs and import quotas are adversely affecting our business. We desperately need additional tubulars (casing) to be made available to the market. Numerous customers have delayed drilling due to the price of oil country tubular goods.
The administration is holding us back, with no love of oil.
With activity increasing, it is a battle to cover input cost inflation with price increases. We are experiencing two steps forward, one step back, on product pricing to our clients, and that is affecting our margins.
The U.S. EPA and other regulatory agencies are being used as a tool to constrain the domestic supply of critical hydrocarbon production as we are promising politically to stand by our allies’ quest to choke off the supply of Russian hydrocarbon imports. It is very difficult to square up.
Cement supply issues finally seem to be getting a little better. Large cement plants (owned by others) have been getting cut off due to instability of the electric grid, which doesn't help.
I think it’s really a waiting game on how businesses and the market react to the Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. We all know that interest rates are going up more. So, I’m not sure why it seems to surprise people. This should be baked into our models by now. The biggest thing for our business is whether we can have a soft landing recession-wise. That's the only thing that could really adversely impact our growth, absent something more catastrophic (of course).
Issues with specialty components continue to cause difficulty. Emissions components will fail and have eight- to 12-week backorder delays. Without these components, equipment is idle. The purchase of high-horsepower diesel engines (800–1200 horsepower) is very difficult, if not impossible, to source. Lead times for large construction equipment remain very delayed, for four to 10 months. Bank financing has not been an issue for operational lines or for purchases. Labor for trucking and skilled construction positions is difficult to source.
Meeting demand has been hampered by the availability of qualified people to work and, more importantly, whether they stay working in the oilfield. We are seeing a greater percentage of hires, who are new to the industry as of last quarter, with many wanting regular hours and a work/life balance not typical of hourly employees in oilfield services.
Uncertainty is rampant because of the capital necessary to redeploy and upgrade equipment, with no long-term contracts to support the expenditures. Wages are at all-time highs with continual upward pressure. Technical services and support are strained and delayed. Spare parts are becoming very scarce.
We continue to struggle to hire drivers with a commercial driver’s license that have oilfield experience, as well as skilled crew labor for construction and maintenance.
As always, the prices of oil and natural gas are all over the roulette wheel. There are so many factors in play that petroleum product prices are nothing more than a guess.
The supply chain is slowly improving, but it’s still far from prepandemic levels. We still see significant lead times for electrical equipment, heavy industrial items and refined petroleum products. Labor shortages will continue to drive up wages as competition for skilled workers continues to increase. There simply are not enough skilled workers for the positions available.
Once the midterm elections are over, we expect the energy market to return to fundamentals rather than being manipulated by the current administration in an effort to gain votes.