Japan's Rising Self-Sufficient Sun: Solar Subsidies' Target is 20X growth by 2020; ~30% of all electricity; Fossil Fuels will be only 13% of total
http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/business/20 ... Y08303.htm
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Since Depression looks likely to cut Japanese energy consumption by at least 25%:
Following is a table of energy consumption at TEPCO and the
total of Japan's 10 utilities for March and the 2008/09
business year.
Volumes of crude and fuel oil are in kilolitres; LNG and
coal are in tonnes.
Year-on-year percentage changes are in parentheses.
MARCH: TEPCO INDUSTRY TOTAL
Coal : 319,637 (-2%) 3,647,723 (-23%)
Fuel oil : 401,769 (-30%) 617,359 (-43%)
Crude oil: 231,872 (-29%) 325,497 (-72%)
LNG : 1,667,943 (-3%) 3,556,736 (-1%)
2008/2009 TEPCO INDUSTRY TOTAL
Coal : 3,113,289 (-10%) 50,690,908 (-4%)
Fuel oil : 6,014,455 (-12%) 10,267,149 (-14%)
Crude oil: 2,609,743 (-15%) 7,994,744 (-29%)
LNG : 18,972,793 (-1%) 40,736,732 (-2%)
Naphtha : 371 (-97%) 371 (-97%)
And since it also appears that Japan is preferentially cutting down on Conventional Thermal, ie burning fossil fuels, which is currently 600Billion kWh, and as a result of Depression would then be cut to 350BillionkWh
LED lights will replace all other lighting by 2020, slashing 25% of electricity usage, so electricity is unlikely to bounce back from the Depression.
Since Japan’s solar subsidies will drive growth of Solar to ~30% of total electricity from 1.3% today, ie, ~300 Billion kWh
The combination of a –25% Depression (LEDs keeping it down afterwards) plus Solar Subsidies 20X growth target by 2020, with an anti-fossil fuel plant shutdown preference would drop fossil fuels down to 100 Billion kWh (from 600 Billion) out of a Depression plus LED lighting reduced consumption of 750 Billion kWh.
By 2020, Fossil fuels will produce only 13% of Japan’s electricity.
This will alter Japan’s geostrategic situation dramatically.
If Japan effected a similar transition for transportation through hybrid vehicles, which seems highly likely with Toyota, Honda and Nissan all committed to hybrids – Toyota says they will sell only hybrids by 2020, Nissan will sell only electric by 2020 –
then Japan basically wouldn’t need the rest of the world’s fossil fuels very much.
So, while the Middle East goes up in Islamic revolutionary and world war flames, accelerated by the global reduction in demand for oil, Japan will not be affected much at all.
After the US and Russia are dramatically weakened by the crisis in their energy-providing Islamic spheres of influence, Japan will be in a very stable, self-reliant position, ready to be quite influential in the post-crisis world, for having been able to sit it out.
Of course, Japan might still get sucked into conflicts with Russia or China over various oil and gas rights, and could face a need to redirect internal frustrations over the economy, but regardless, they won’t be urgently propelled into these conflicts, and
will have increasing levels of freedom to shrug their shoulders over the aggressive postures of others.
Food is another issue as Japan imports a great deal of her food, but it appears that they are angling to assist potential supplier countries to increase their capacities:
Japan to aid agriculture in developing countries
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/eefe5c6e-3456 ... abdc0.html
Of course, if that doesn’t work out.....
Hydroponics: A Smart Alternative to Growing Rice?
http://www.biotech-weblog.com/50226711/ ... g_rice.php
Japan uses Korean LEDs for agricultural lighting
http://compoundsemiconductor.net/blog/2 ... uctor.html
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A staff of 'A' company said, "This project focuses on the LED lighting fixtures for farming which have high brightness LED with high light quantum, and especially optical wavelength of red and blue light can hasten the growth of plants so that enables stable harvesting from vegetable farming.
By participating in this project, Seoul Semiconductor confirmed their competitive power in the Japanese market having advanced technologies, and the possibility to expand the LED market as a lighting source for farming. This is expected to be a starting point in developing new markets. With artificial light source, the quality and quantity of plants may increase through farming without agricultural chemicals and influence of weather, leading to higher income of farm families. In the past, incandescent lamps, fluorescent lamps and sodium lamps have been mainly used, but in the present time, eco-friendly LED of high efficiency and long lifespan without carbon discharge is being popular. Also Seoul Semiconductor has supplied LEDs for agricultural lighting in Canada.
According to the report of Rural Development Association of Korea, assuming that we cultivate crops with supplementary lighting in about 3,000 ha by using LED, we can get 70% energy saving effect compared to incandescent lamps, which amounts to $12M per year. Especially, farming with artificial lighting became possible even in a dessert or the Arctic region. Therefore, it is expected to be helpful to remove food problems over the world.
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Finally, if Japan continued the planned pace of solar installation growth of the 20teens, then 5 years later (2025) they could shut down all of their nuclear power plants too.
160 years after the Meiji Restoration which opened Japan back up to the world and 80 Years after the nuking of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japan would finally be free of the world; free of the need for either having their own empire or riding shotgun with American imperial rule in order to supply themselves with energy and food.
If it wanted to Japan could choose to close itself off once again from the world into an Island Fortress.
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