Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

Cool Breeze wrote: Fri Aug 05, 2022 12:10 pm

richard5za wrote: Fri Aug 05, 2022 5:15 am

Cool Breeze wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 3:44 pm

Yes, the better thing will be to weather the storm by waiting for the multitude of bad indicators coming out over the next 3 weeks.

If I thought there was indeed a multitude of bad indicators coming out over the next 3 weeks I would go short, in a big way, and make a fortune;

Just trust that inflation continues to soar and stagflation is the reality. Get comfortable, be smart and you'll be fine - no need to "get rich".

Hi Cool, "- no need to "get rich"." Moralising is never welcomed; even if you do live in the "Bible Belt"

richard5za wrote: Sat Aug 06, 2022 1:20 am Friday'sjobs report suggests that the USA economy is still in good shape. So the key question becomes: Will there be a recession or won't there be a recession? Would some informed soul like to have a go at this one?

My contribution to this subject is that you can't deal with inflation and bring it down without putting the economy into recession.

richard5za wrote: Sat Aug 06, 2022 7:52 am

richard5za wrote: Sat Aug 06, 2022 1:20 am Friday'sjobs report suggests that the USA economy is still in good shape. So the key question becomes: Will there be a recession or won't there be a recession? Would some informed soul like to have a go at this one?

My contribution to this subject is that you can't deal with inflation and bring it down without putting the economy into recession.

And even then it won't work. They'll break something or many things.

I wasn't moralizing.

richard5za wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 10:09 am Very difficult market to trade at present Higg. I have moved my attention to gold miners, day trades only. Had two days of small but handy profits, then yesterday stopped out for a small loss. Back in today; gold going up as I write lets see what happens to the gold miners
How are you doing in this market?

I've been cautious of late and haven't done much. I had some small positions in 2 stocks near the lows of last month. Both stocks are up about 70% from their lows but I got out when they were up about 10%. Now I'm short some from about 4100. There's been a lot of talk from the bulls about bearish sentiment being the driver to take the stock market to new all time highs. That's possible, but even if that happens it seems to me that a multi-week period of consolidation will be necessary before that can happen. I'd been looking for a daily chart of the move down from the all time high in the Nikkei. Finally found that Yahoo has the data and it's possible to create a custom chart from their data. Here is the chart:



The first thing that caught my attention is from the April low it took 43 trading days for the Nikkei to reach the rebound high. The reason that caught my attention was I already knew that when the S&P completed its first wave down in March 2008, the counter trend move that happened before the 2008 crash took 44 trading days to complete. The rebound high on the Nikkei fell short of the 50% retracement, and after that there was a 2 month period of consolidation before the next wave down began. That 2 month period of consolidation may have worked off the excess bearish sentiment, if there was any. So I think a multi-week period of consolidation is one possibility. The dip during the 2 month consolidation would serve to get bears worked up and disappointed after a new down wave doesn't materialize. I'm not predicting that, but I think it's a reasonable possibility that almost all market participants are ignoring.

As far as other markets, I'm looking at oil but haven't done anything yet. I'd posted a few weeks back about Buffett is buying oil stocks. This would be a short term trade for an oversold bounce.

It is interesting how that does appear how it looks, Higgie

I say around the 2700 level S&P, that range towards the 3000 mark by September's end. If something geopolitically crazy happens we can absolutely go much lower than that, even.

Get ready for what we all expect, because it's likely it'll happen.

Higgenbotham wrote: Sun Jun 26, 2022 1:54 pm I follow 8 traders who have a good record of calling intermediate term trends in the market. Their positions and targets (where they have them) are:

1. Long from a higher level. The S&P is going to 5,000.
2. Long from a much higher level. The S&P is going to a new record high.
3. No Position. The market is at a bifurcation point and a position will be taken long or short when direction is determined. The short term, medium term and long term trends are down. The short term trend is close to turning up.
4. Long from near the low. The short term trend is up. The medium and long term trends are down.
5. No position. Sentiment is very bearish and odds favor a swing up to a new record high from this area or lower.
6. 17% long this month after selling out near the high. Will be buying in equal amounts each month from July to November. Sometime this year, the Fed will point to weakness in housing, the labor market, retail sales, etc., and quickly lower rates to zero and start record QE.
7. No position. The main trend is down. The short term trend is up. The downtrend will resume from here. Confirmation is required before taking a short position.
8. Long from near the low. The S&P will be up for a few weeks before the downtrend resumes. Target is 4400.

What stands out to me is that 4 of the 8 are fully long while none are short. If this is representative of what is going on in the market, any break in the market could result in a lot of selling pressure.

There was some selling pressure after I posted this, but not to a new low. Despite some scary down drafts, this crew was right, as usual. Update below:

1. Long from a lower level (than where the market presently is). The S&P is going to 5000.
2. There will be a pullback from the 4150 area. It's not clear whether his long term position has changed.
3. No position. The medium term trend has turned up. The long term trend is still down. Waiting for a pullback to go long. No shorts until the medium term trend turns down.
4. Long from 3950. The medium term trend has turned up. The long term trend is still down.
5. Long from lower levels. The sentiment is still bearish enough to favor a swing to new all time highs.
6. 35% long. The bear market is probably over. The Fed is talking tough on interest rates but printing huge amounts of money.
7. No position. The main trend is down. The medium term trend has turned up. The short term trend is down. The downtrend will resume from here. Confirmation is required before taking a short position.
8. Still long from near the low. The S&P will get to 4200+ but not 4400 (as originally stated). There will be a big, fast reversal (down) in August.

1, 2, 5 and 6 have a bullish bias. 8 has a bearish bias. 3, 4 and 7 are unbiased, aligning their trades with their rules based trend systems.

Based on these positions, I think at least a pullback is likely this month. There should a bounce in the market on a first move down to about 3950 or 3900. Selling could accelerate below about 3850 on the S&P.

CPI Wednesday and PPI Thursday should be a hint as to what is coming.

The Truth Behind the Strong Job Market Hype - Ep 832
21,460 viewsAug 7, 2022
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aZHekvsZEnc

Tom Mazanec wrote: Sun Aug 07, 2022 8:14 pm CPI Wednesday and PPI Thursday should be a hint as to what is coming.

Yup.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inli ... k=0AzKqPSn

Bulls to be vaporised. We will see what gaps get filled. The Sogo Sosha lines are not broken globally.
Biden is Communist and the next generation will be slaves to service the debt.
87000 Lois Lerners to go after a handfull of millionairs. Taxpayers are idiots led by fools.